Can he be replaced?
With the final out of the 2011 World Series now recorded, baseball’s hot stove season is underway. The first order of business for the Yanks is to address CC’s contract situation. The deadline for exercising an opt out is fast approaching and it is widely expected that Sabathia will use it unless he and the Yanks work out a deal.
First, the good news. The Yanks and CC’s agent are talking, and while the Yanks are sending out signals they’re about striking a deal the two sides are at least engaged. The scariest scenario of CC being lured back to southern California appears to be unfounded. Angels owner Arte Moreno has stated he will be giving their newly minted GM Jerry DiPoto only about 10-20 mil to spend this offseason, eliminating them from bidding on any big ticket items. The Giants also have little to spend, and may actually need to clear space just to fill out their roster needs. I’m sure our readers are informed enough that I don’t need to get into what’s going on with the Dodgers, or explain why the A’s won’t be involved.
But while SoCal may appear to be out of the picture, don’t fall for false sense of inevitability either. We had that sense last year with Cliff Lee and Andy Pettitte, and we all know what happened next. It actually happened twice with Andy, the Yanks were exceedingly confident he would return after the 2003 season only to find he struck a handshake deal with then-Astros owner Drayton McLayne. There are rumors flying that Detroit and Toronto plan on making huge offers to CC if he hits the open market. Yankee fans and the team have to prepare themselves for the possibility that CC doesn’t return. There’s also a line of reasoning that at some point the Yanks should walk away. If we’re talking about 6-7 years for an overweight 31 year old pitcher then the back end of the deal is likely to be ugly. As we all know long term deals for starters rarely work out well, with Mike Mussina as a notable exception that proves the rule of pitchers like Zito, Zambrano, Santana, Brown and Hampton.
What if CC bolts? Could the Yanks still be a championship caliber team if they draw a line in the negotiations and let him walk? A 1-1 replacement for someone with his abilities isn’t likely. CC’s been among the top 4 pitchers in the sport for the past 3 years since signing his deal with the Yanks. The ones who’ve been better than him (Halladay, Verlander, Lee) all aren’t going anywhere. You won’t be able to replace his production with one player, so you’ll have to look deeper for areas to upgrade.
If Cashman gets creative, I think they clearly can be at least as good if not better. We tend to forget the premium that the Yanks pay for those last few wins over the pitchers who are merely good yet not great. We also forget the Yanks do have a budget, so unless they plan on expanding payroll to an unseen level you have to make compromises elsewhere in the rotation to afford the high priced Sabathia. The 23-25 mil CC will cost the Yanks in 2012 could be utilized in a variety of scenarios that could make the rotation better overall, albeit a bit weaker at the top.
For example, let’s say they sign CJ Wilson 16 mil and Oswalt for 9 mil, and then send Phil Hughes to the bullpen for 2012. The Sabathia-Hughes tandem combined for 7.8 WAR in 2011 (Fangraphs) while the Wilson-Oswalt duo totaled 8.4 WAR. Don’t like that one? OK, let’s try this. Sign CJ, eat half of AJ Burnett’s salary and trade him for the proverbial bag of balls. Now swing a deal for a pitcher to take AJs spot such as John Danks or Gio Gonzalez, both of whom are lefties. The Sabathia-Burnett tandem was worth 8.6 WAR last year, as compared with 9.2 WAR for Wilson-Danks or 9.4 WAR for Wilson-Gonzalez. With Dallas Braden and Brett Anderson due to return in 2012, its very likely Beane makes one of his starters available.
Obviously, these are just a few possibilities and the are many other scenarios we can dream up that fall under the same premise. The optimum outcome would be to keep CC plus upgrade the rotation elsewhere, though it apears that would require a new level of payroll. My point is that Yankee fans shouldn’t panic if CC walks, and there should be a walk away point if the bidding gets out of hand. Texas showed this year you don’t need an ace to make the World Series. Philly showed this year that three aces guarantees you nothing. St Louis lost their ace in Adam Wainwright and won it all. Baseball is a funny game, so don’t worry too much if the Yanks aren’t the best team on paper in 2012. The best AL team on paper in 2011 was the Red Sox.
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Steve, personally I think there are less “if’s” in the Yankees ability to resign CC if he opts out then there are in your various option theories if they don’t resign him.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14699
Consider a few things. First, teams that have had three 5+ WAR pitchers on the same staff have only won 2 WS in the past 100 years. Three of them finished 5th. Three aces guarantees you little, so what does one mean?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl/player_search.cgi?search=1998+Yankees#players_value_pitching::none
Next, the best Yankee team in most of our lifetimes, the 1998 edition, had one 4+ win pitcher (Wells) two 3+ win pitchers (Cone/El Duque) and two 2+ win pitchers (Pettitte/Irabu). Nobody near the 7.1 Sabathia posted this year. That team was solid top to bottom, no weak spots on the staff, bullpen, lineup or bench. There’s a lot to be said for that.
I don’t like top heavy teams. The wins you gain with CC you give back with Burnett/Hughes. The team could be better and more consistent with another two 2s, like the 98 squad. We know the Yanks will hit, you just need a starter to give the team a chance to win. Nova does that, I’d love two more of him.
~I thought it was just me who thought the Yankees shouldn’t lock themselves into an outlandish extended contract with CC.
~I THE OPT-OUT WAS if he or his family couldn’t adjust to NY. Now suddenly it’s about the benjamins/yrs.
~Call me crazy but I hope his fat, greedy, diabetes & heart attack (in waiting) leaves.
~CC hasn’t won against a real Ace since he got to NY. He
always loses. The thing that gets me with him is too many pitches per batter, and he’s hit to often.
Cashman don’t pull a Hank Steinbrenner please, be reasonable!!
With just bringing CC back I don’t think we have a team that makes it to the WS let alone wins it. So without him we’re worse, but either way we have to make more moves to get where we want to be.
We’ll just have to see how this all shakes out, but the smarter long-term move is certainly to avoid a 7-8 year deal. Though at the end of the day I think we re-sign CC to another 7 year/161 million and regret it in the last 2-3 years. Buisness as usual for the Yanks, but hopefully we can win a ring or two in the first 4-5 years to even it out.
No way Cashman goes 7 years. 6 is too risky for me. Can you imaging the last 2 years of Teix’s contract, with a senile ARod and an obese, worn out Sabthia?
5/$125 (as suggested at RAB) will get it done. A contending team would have to offer 6/$130+ for CC to bolt. Toronto could have kept Haliday cheaper then getting CC. I don’t think the Sox will go 6 years. It’s possible 5/$125 doesn’t get it done…. but we can live with it. Other studs will be hitting the market in the upcoming years.
I think someone will go 6 years, 7 is a reach, but also possible. Texas would be crazy to be willing to go 5 on CJ and not at least try 6 for CC, even if they offer less than 24 per season.
I agree however that I wouldn’t go higher than 5/125 guaranteed, though I would include a vesting option for a 6th year based on innings or Cy Young contention in the last year.
Steve, we may yet find out. If the tea leaves are right and CC is sitting on the Yankees offer to see what the “open market” is like I have a strange feeling the Yankees won’t go any more than 6 years and $150M which is fine by me.
CC may yet get his chance to see if the grass is greener on the other side. Like I said in an earlier post on another site I just hope the Yankees don’t wait and wait and wait some more for an answer. Once they make their best offer if they don’t get an answer quickly, move on. Offer him arbitration, take the draft choice from the team that wants to sign him if he turns down arbitration and go as I’ve said before “balls to the wall” to sign someone else or make a trade. The Yankees have a lot of pieces they could put together to make something happen on the trade market, in my opinion.
I don’t see these trade market options… Granted the market hasn’t opened up just yet, but no one worth the price seems to be available.
I think the best pitcher available will be of the Gio Gonzalez mold, and I wouldn’t give up the asking price required for Gio honestly.
Montero for Gio straight up? I’d do that. Even adding a Warren or Phelps wouldn’t be a deal breaker for me, though I’d try to hold onto one of the Noesi/Warren/Phelps types for a Danks deal.
Let me start off by saying I don’t think Beane would do that, and if he was so eager to get rid of Gio straight up it would be a red flag to me anyway.
I would be looking for more like a Banuelos and a Noesi/Warren/Phelps for Gio honestly. Which I don’t think he will be willing to do. I have serious questions about Gio in the AL East, and I would want to hang on to Montero in a deal for him.
The only teams he has done well against in the East are Toronto and the O’s.
In 28 career IP against Boston Gio has a 5.79 ERA, walked 14, and a has a .298 OBA.
In 26 career IP against the Yankees Gio has a 7.27 ERA, walked 20, and has a .248 OBA.
In 11.2 career IP against the Rays Gio has a 6.17 ERA, walked 10, and has a .233 OBA.
All in total that’s 65.2 IP, 69 H, 44 BBs, and an ERA of 6.48.
As for Danks, I like him, but he has been inconsistent in his 5 years breaking into the league. He has really only had the two good years, so I would be hesitant to throw Montero in a deal for someone who I’m not sure if they are more of a 2 or 3 type pitcher.
I’m not sure I want to make judgements on 11-26 IP without a lot more info, so I’ll trust the Yankee talent evaluators on Gio. They nailed it on Jimenez, which I missed completely.
But I don’t think Beane is looking for pitching. The whole reason why he’d trade Gio (if he does) is an excess in his rotation, which could be 7 deep this year. He could use a 1B, which is what most scouts think is Montero’s best position. Straight up I think its a fair deal for both sides. Beane gets an upgrade over Barton and the Yanks get a much needed starter. its reminiscent of the Hamilton-Volquez deal a few years back. Could work well for both sides.
11-26 IP is a small sample size, as is the 65.2 IP total sample size. However I think it is worth more than simple dismission for one reason. Gio is a pitcher with terrible control problems, who fills the bases regularly. He only gets away with it as much as he does because of his strikeout capability. He is very comparable to AJ Burnett in this way, and this tends to lead itself to struggling against deep, patient, veteran lineups.
Going inside his own division, Gio struggled mightily against the Rangers this year. This is another deep, veteran lineup. Though not as patient as the Red Sox or Yankees. He tends to be showing a pattern that I don’t like, and because of that I would like to hold onto Montero in any dealing of him.
I also don’t think Beane would trade Banuelos for Gio, but this is the only way I would do the deal. Maybe if a 3rd team got involved and it worked out in a way such as the Grandy deal it could work, with someone else giving up the hitting prospect. I just don’t trust Gio, but I do see him as a finished product version of Banuelos. I’m just not willing to go that far to get someone I don’t fully believe in as a top of the rotation starter.
Many would say Texas has since proven to be the winner of that deal. Also Montero is much younger than Hamilton, and has a much less drug filled, therefore less body degrading past.
To Chris, I guess I have a little different take on things if CC doesn’t want to “play ball”. I don’t see anything wrong with trying to make something happen as opposed to waiting for something to “open up” as you say. Personally I do NOT subscribe to the saying “everything comes to he who waits”. Just my opinion.
You can’t make something that happen that isn’t there. If teams don’t want to trade their best pitchers you can’t make them, and way overpaying to try and persuade them isn’t the smart move.
Everything doesn’t come to those who wait, but championships don’t come to those who overreact either. If CC leaves, he leaves. If someone then doesn’t want to trade you a pitcher, then don’t force it just to get someone. You can always sign CJ to a 5/85 million type deal, and even going after Darvish is better than throwing whatever it takes to pry open a Gio type.
I’ve heard numerous times from people I know and 1-2 of the beat writers that the Yanks plan on being more active this off season. I think they feel they have some chips to deal, and plan on using them.
I don’t mind that for the right players, and the right deal. I don’t think any of us saw the Granderson trade coming at all, and I was a total supporter of that then, and now. If Cashman can work another good trade I’m fine with it, even if we trade away some combination of Montero, Banuelos, Betances, Sanchez.
I just don’t like any deal done out of overreaction, and not of love/like of the deal.
If we got Gio for Banuelos straight up, or for one of the throw ins from above I would be perfectly fine with it. I imagine many around these parts wouldn’t be, but I think it would be of a similar cloth to the Grandy trade
Without getting bogged down in specific proposals (to which some wiseguy will say trading X for Y is crazy) I think the Yanks feel like their pitching prospects aren’t ready, and as of CCs opt out they will have Nova, Burnett and Hughes as the only starters under contract. That’s a pretty scary rotation.
They have 3 spots to fill, which will be some combo of CC, FAs, trades or Darvish. I have to think a whole bunch of prospects and players on the roster will be made available. Hughes, Swisher, Noesi, Warren, Montero and Betances could all be on the table. But I think they’ll want to hold onto Banuelos. Montero only goes for a high end starter, and I do think Gio qualifies.
Is Gio really a high end starter? As of now I think he fits in more along the lines of a number 3 starter, who’s been elevated to the status of a number 2 based on neccesity. He certainly has the talent to be a high end 2, but at the moment his inability to hold walks down is AJ Burnett like scary.
He was on my fantasy team this year, and he tanked so hard down the stretch I had to drop him. Plus his WHIP stayed way higher than I liked all year. Being as I had interest in him, both in fantasy and as a potential Yankee trade target. I watched a bunch of his games this year, and while I saw a lot of flashes of brilliance, I saw just as many warning signs.
I just think I’d be more inclined to go with CJ for 5 years and money than I would Gio on a package Montero+.
Chris, you are misunderstanding what I’m saying. If you go back to my original post that started this I specifically said go “balls to the wall” to sign someone or a trade. It could mean signing CJ Wilson or Darvish or Buehrle or Osawalt or any combination of them I wasn’t just saying a “trade”. I’m not promoting or saying the Yankees should make a bad deal just to make a deal. What I am saying and I have to trust Cashman and the powers to be with the Yankees to seek out the “right” deal in a trade. A deal that benefits both parties. However I realize that most trades/deals will inevitability have one party giving up more then the other. And please don’t misunderstand me just because you or I don’t see opportunities from where we sit doesn’t mean they aren’t out there. There is a reason Cashman and the “other” GM’s do what they do and we do what we do. I have no doubt that they have access to information and contacts at there means that we as fans have no idea of. Regardless of how well informed any of us think we are. That’s all I’m saying.
I think you are the one misunderstanding.
My last comment was in response to this comment you made.
“I don’t see anything wrong with trying to make something happen as opposed to waiting for something to “open up” as you say.”
As of right now I see no one available I would be willing to pay the price on, but I specifically put in the fact that the market hasn’t “opened up yet”. When it does something like the Granderson trade may become available, if so then that’s fine. If not we can’t force it. You seemed to take acception to the “open up” as some passive position.
As far as my response to your original comment, I was simply implying I think it will have to be a signing. Since as I said, I don’t think the trade market will bear fruit the way we will want.
I also stand by my position of staying away from both Oswalt and Buehrle. Oswalt’s back is a major question mark, even causing him to contemplate retirement during the season. After seeing how hard it was for Boomer to stay on the field, let alone be productive without lots of needles when his back went downhill quick I want no part of it. He’s also a career NL pitcher, and I tend to think it’s a little late in his career to make that movie.
Buehrle I don’t think takes a 1 year deal to sign with the Yankees, and that’s the only way I would sign him up. If he’s willing to take 1 year 10-12 million then fine, but otherwise no go. He’s an innings eater at this point in his career, and not much more. He’d fit into the back of the rotation, and I think our needs lie more at the top. Especially if CC leaves as we are talking in these scenarios.