With the news that the Rockies would consider moving and that their opening asking price for the Yankees were the team’s top three prospects — Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances, along with young starter — I’ve had many a discussion with fellow Yankee fans about what they’d be willing to give up for a player of Ubaldo’s caliber, but more importantly, it got me thinking about some of my own long-held beliefs about trading prospects.
For as long as I’ve been an ardent follower of Yankee blogs — beginning sometime either in late 2003 or 2004 — I’ve more often than not found myself stridently opposed to the idea of the Yankees trading any of their top prospects for, well, just about anyone. With the rise of information available on the web, it became easier than ever to read about and subsequently get caught up in the hype of the team’s prospects, and nowhere was this more evident than with , who immediately became the most important name in all of Yankeeland shortly after being drafted in 2004. When Hughes’ name began popping up as the centerpiece of a hypothetical deal after the 2007 season, I was so opposed to this idea that I created a blog devoted to saving the young hurler.
However, in the ensuing years the team hasn’t exactly had the smoothest go of it in determining the best way to deploy Hughes, , and to a lesser extent, , and between a variety of injuries and constant shuffling back-and-forth between the bullpen and rotation, today the team has managed to establish just one of these pitchers as a starter. Now, there are a litany of reasons behind what caused these three players to wind up in the roles they are in today, and this isn’t meant to impugn the Yankee organization, as I’m sure the team did whatever it could to try to successfully integrate all three players into the rotation (and I’m certainly not interested in revisiting the “Joba needs to start” drum that I banged all offseason until my arms fell off, as the Yankees have made it clear that’s a dead issue), but the fact remains that only one of these pitchers has made it as a starting pitcher on the big league club, and the jury is still out to an extent as to whether Hughes can be counted on to be an effective member of the rotation long-term.
Now, whether the Yankees’ were at fault or not with regards to the aforementioned “Big Three,” it’s not as if the organization is completely clueless when it comes to developing and promoting its own players. and have emerged as two of the best players in baseball at their respective positions, while has been a valuable piece of the bullpen and is currently in the midst of a season for the ages. The Yankees have continued to utilize the farm system rather effectively in the creation of the bullpen these last several seasons, and even appear to be on their way to developing a reliable 4th/5th-starter in the person of Ivan Nova.
I also think that the Yankees have displayed a knack for knowing who of their prospects to trade and when to trade them. Going all the way back to the early ’90s, I can recall reading stories of potential trades involving seemingly every member of the “Core Four” save . As impossible as it is to comprehend today, and were nearly traded for . ‘s name routinely came up in trade talk. Maybe the Yankees got lucky in these instances, but I’m willing to give the organization credit for these non-trades.
And in that vein, it’s difficult to come up with too many players from the Yankees’ system that they did trade over the last decade or so that the team would have been better off keeping. While I’ve made the case for the team’s shortsightedness in both trading and later on not re-signing , at the time it seemed like the right thing to do, and I’m not sure moving Lilly ever came back to seriously hurt the Yankees. Similarly, if Cashman could take a mulligan on the Nick Johnson and Juan Rivera for trade I’m sure he would, but again, the Yankees were in desperate need of pitching at the time and Vazquez on paper looked like a perfect fit. Perhaps that Javy for and Arodys Vizacaino deal is even less defensible, but even with Vazquez’s two putrid stints as a Yankee, I don’t know that anyone can reasonably say that the Yankees missed out on greatness by parting with Nick the Stick (much as I do love him), Rivera and the Melk Man.
In reality, Cashman’s never traded away a prospect that turned around to not only become the ace of another team but also really came back to haunt the Yanks. I know Kennedy has had a couple of nice seasons out in the desert since departing in the trade, but to this day I remain unconvinced that he’d maintain this level of success in the AL East. I don’t know anyone who misses considering he doesn’t strike anyone out and also plays in perhaps the weakest division in baseball. ‘s become one of the better relievers in the National League, but once again, it’s not the AL East. ? (who’s of course now back in the organization)? Any of the guys involved in the or deals? Most of these guys have never been heard from again. Sure and have some quality seasons under their belts, but they’ve never been indispensable.
I guess what I’m ultimately trying to say is, I trust that Brian Cashman will make the right move. If he decides that he wants to move prospects A, B and C in a deal for Ubaldo, then I trust that the Yankees have evaluated the situation thoroughly and determined that the immediate return of an established, #1/#1A-type pitcher was too good to pass up for the potential promise of the future. On the flip side, if he decided he didn’t want to make a move, then I also trust that to be the right decision.
Much as it might hurt to see, say, Jesus Montero or Dellin Betances thrive while wearing the uniform of an opponent — and I certainly can’t deny the level of satisfaction gleaned from seeing a member of the Yankees’ farm system come to the Majors and be successful — the Yankees have never been known to be all that patient with their youngsters, and maybe it’s not such a bad thing for a Yankee prospect to endure their growing pains while under the auspices of another team’s watchful eye. Maybe the Yankees trade Montero and then decide to give gobs of money to be their designated hitter. That statement probably sounds ludicrous, but if you think about it, it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility. As special as Montero’s bat is expected to be, if the Yankees were able to turn Jesus into a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, it’s not as if they’d never be able to replace his hypothetical production. To become a hitter of Fielder’s caliber — a career slash line of .281/.390/.540 since becoming a full-time player in 2006 — is probably a best-case-scenario for Montero, and we already know Fielder can hack it as a Major League hitter. And anyway, if Montero or any Yankee prospect did wind up succeeding and becoming a superstar elsewhere, the Yankees could always just buy them back as a free agent six years down the line, after they’ve battled and conquered the struggles that the majority of young players have to endure.
As great (and unexpectedly) as the 2011 Yankee rotation has performed, I can’t imagine too many people would view the team’s current group of starters as championship-caliber, although stranger things have certainly happened. The Yankees are always in win-now mode, and a hypothetical trade for Ubaldo significantly enhances the team’s likelihood of making that much deeper a run in the playoffs. I’m not saying I think the Yankees have to trade for Ubaldo, or really for anyone, but I’ll understand why if they do.
Just as long as it doesn’t come at the cost of Banuelos.
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Prior comparisons to Miguel Cabrera and even a Frank Thomas have artificially lifted fans expectations for Montero. It’s simply impossible to expect that level of success for Montero. Those comps were done in best case scenario and if anything highlighted how large Montero physically looks.
I personally trade Montero for Ubaldo. But since its no where close to a 1-1 swap, I understand if it doesn’t go down. Im less sold on Betances future as a front of the order guy. He’s 23, in AAA, and dealing with walk issues. I get it.
I don’t prospect hug very well when there is a shot at acquiring a pitcher who could be this team’s undisputed ace if CC walks and signs elsewhere.
Well, I think those expectations were based on a misunderstanding. The Thomas comparison, I believe, was based solely on front-foot hitting style.
One player I can recall traded on Cashman’s watch who had a nice career and at times, hurt the Yanks, was Mike Lowell.
Yeah, pretty sure Cashman has called that his worst deal of all time, and I certainly agree. That deal prompted the origination of my “Bizarre Moves from Seasons Past” series.
How was trading Lowell bad and how did trading him hurt the Yanks?
Brosius 1998-2001 (three straight World Series championships out of four, a WS appearance every year he played for the Yanks, and he hit a game-winning homerun off Trevor Hoffman in the ’98 WS and got another clutch hit in the ’01 WS.) Brosius was brilliant in 1998 (career year as primarily a #9 hitter.)
Ventura 2002 was not too shabby (27 HR, 93 RBI.)
Boone 2003 (’nuff said.)
A-Rod 2004-???
There was no future for Lowell with the Yanks. Brosius was blocking him at 3B like Mattingly was blocking J.T. Snow at 1B, Jeter was blocking Cristian Guzman at SS, and Posada was blocking Dioner Navarro at C.
Lowell lucked out with the ’03 Marlins. Prime A-Rod outshined him all ’04 including the postseason and all ’07 until the postseason. Lowell was just on solid teams. I wouldn’t say he was a top five reason the Red Sox won it all in ’04 and ’07. The ’03 Yanks lost to the Marlins in the WS cuz they didn’t pitch, not cuz of Lowell.
I don’t think anyone is arguing that it crippled the organization but it was a really bad trade judged in retrospect. Lowell was traded for Ed Yarnell,not anyone who ended up helping at all.
It was well before Cashman’s time but I can recall when the Yankees traded Willie McGee for journeyman reliever Bob Sykes. That’s another one they’d take back.
Bad in that Yarnall did nothing compared to Lowell, but that’s about it.
McGee helped the Cards win it all in ’82 but I doubt he would’ve made much of a difference on the awful ’82 Yanks who probably still would’ve signed Steve Kemp. The ’83 Yanks won 91 games despite Kemp flopping, the Yanks got prime Rickey Henderson for ’84, and they had prime Winfield. Lack of a solid 2-3 behind Guidry and the wildcard was the 1982-89 Yankees’ downfall although they were solid 1985-87 and would’ve won the wildcard in ’85 had it been instituted before that year or that year.
You have a strange basis for judging trades if you don’t consider what they got back in return to be very relevant. Again, no one is arguing that the organization was crippled by them.
I never said the organization wasn’t crippled by the Lowell trade, I just said Lowell was dispensable because of Brosius. I don’t consider the return for Lowell very relevant because Ed Yarnall was not ticketed to be the Yanks fifth starter for 1999 or 2000 like Mike Lowell wasn’t taking over 3B from Brosius after Brosius’ 1998. Had Brosius sucked in 1998, maybe Lowell would’ve been the Yankees starting 3B for 1999, maybe he wouldn’t have.
The Yanks traded Yarnall for Denny Neagle. While Neagle was 7-7, 5.81 ERA lousy for the 2000 Yanks, he did give them 91.1 IP in 16 games (15 starts.) He went 0-2 in the 2000 ALCS vs. Seattle but pitched 4.2 so-so innings before giving way to Cone getting out Mike Piazza to end the fifth inning in (Neagle’s) 2000 World Series start. I doubt Yarnall does this for the 2000 Yanks, “this” being not very much. Then again I considered Neagle a fifth starter behind Clemens, Pettite, El Duque, and even Cone despite Cone’s awful 2000 because of Cone’s career prior to 2000, so in retrospect the Yanks traded Yarnall for Neagle in the hopes that he’d be a #4 or better, a #5 at worst, but someone who could give them a decent amount of innings. I think he did that for a fifth starter.
The Yanks traded Lowell for Yarnall a guy the Mets traded to get Mike Piazza, so I think it was a pretty decent trade considering it wasn’t made long after that Piazza trade.
Not sure why I can’t reply to Duh’s comment below but i can’t so I’m replying here. You make it sound like Ed Yarnell was the primary player traded for Piazza and later Denny Neagle. He wasn’t. Preston Wilson was the primary piece of the Piazza trade, and Drew Henson (definitely) and Jackson Melian were better prospects going to the Reds. Yarnell was a decent prospect so I’m really not saying that it was a terrible move except in retrospect. You aren’t going to be a GM as long as Cashman has without making a few trades you’d take back. That said, I don’t see how you could argue that it wasn’t a terrible trade judged in retrospect. Come on, even Cashman says that.
Not sure why I can’t reply to you (no “Reply”) button.
I never said Yarnall was the primary reason why the Mets got Piazza and I know full well Wilson was the primary piece. Yarnall was one of the principals being a starting pitcher, point being, he was traded for a star player who was considered a future Hall Of Famer even then at the time of the trade which forever changed the culture of the Mets. When you are one of the guys in an in historic, franchise-changing trade, you are not ballast, you count. Piazza’s acquisition was the first step/move/shot in the Mets making it to the 2000 World Series. Yarnall helped the Mets get him.
Are you serious about Drew Henson?
The Yankees had Scott Brosius who posted .300 BA, 19 HR, 98 RBI – a career year – primarily in the #9 slot for the 1998 Yankees thus was a nice second-tier reason why the Yanks won it all for the second time in three years. Lowell had no future with the Yankees, or are you gonna tell me the Yanks should’ve kept J.T. Snow and chucked Mattingly cuz guess what? J.T. had a better career than Mattingly while he and Mattingly played the game. Mattingly lasted only three more seasons after the Snow trade and Snow went on to being a Gold Glove 1B and the best defensive 1B in the game and a nice power bat. The Yankees traded an expendable kid (Lowell) for a starter (Yarnall) they parlayed into a lousy fifth starter who had a so-so 4.2 IP in a win in a World Series the Yanks won (Neagle.)
Cashman has been a GM for as long as he’s been because he had the fortune to inherit a World Series contention ready team. His tenure began with a no-brainer trade for Knoblauch and I believe the Brosius trade. A great start, but he has bought guys mostly ever since. Wells for Clemens was more concession by the Blue Jays than Cashman coup. Clemens wanted out of Toronto, there was buzz he wanted to be a Yankee, so Toronto and the Yanks struck up basically a one for one deal (Wells for Clemens) with the Yanks tacking on two expendables in Bush and the other guy as window dressing.
This is a good read, going back and evaluating trades involving Yankee prospects getting move. Its true that when the Yankees traded away prospects, they may have developed into regular everyday players, but none of them have been recognized as elite status or even second tier players (a few allstar appearances).
The problem I have comes from the example of Jesus Montero being compared to Prince Fielder. The triple slash line for Prince Fielder since 2006, would be numbers that I would be happy with if Jesus Montero replicated them. The thing is despite those stats if we kept Montero, he would produce more value since he would be considerably cheap, compared to Prince Fielder who after this year, will demand a contract averaging around $20 million a year as opposed to a few million once Montero hits arbitration.
Prospects have a good chance of failing is high, but if they succeed you have him under team control for about six years in their prime. Usually the highly touted players get to free agency around the age of 28-30. Despite this being the age where hitters reach their prime, this is also the age where they make the most money. If all three of the top prospects pan out for the Yankees or if one reaches potential, another is good but misses his ceiling because of control issues (ex: Dellin Betances) but is still a contributor on the team as an above average-very good player, and one gets traded, that would still be more value earned from those players because of the amount of years the team has control of them. The best value are players that perform at a very high level for very cheap (extreme examples: Tim Lincecum Cy Young Award years, Albert Pujols mid 2000s, and Miguel Cabrera on the Florida Marlins).
This scenario is a little different though. Ubaldo Jimenez may be 27, but his contract is team friendly for 4 years if he remains on the Rockies and 3 years if he is traded. This is a player who can be an elite pitcher if he regains some of his lost velocity, and improves his control. People should understand that this an unusual circumstance where you are trading for a very good player (could be elite), without having to give up both prospects and a contract extension which would decrease the overall return for the Yankees (Johan Santana, Cliff Lee trades if made by Yankees). Trade opportunities like this are very rare where you would only need to give up prospects for a player in his prime without worrying about him leaving after the offseason when he prices himself off the team in free agency.
Great points Mark, and you’re certainly right that the Fielder comp is a bit misleading in that it would come at much higher cost to the Yankees, but given that money is the team’s one seemingly endless resource and their largest competitive advantage, I don’t know that the idea of paying Prince $20M more than Montero to do the same thing hurts that badly. Yes, if it comes at the expense of hamstringing the team’s needs in other areas — say more starting pitching — then that’s a problem, but really, when have the Yankees ever not gone after someone they really really wanted because of money?
It seems that a lot of fans — and I’ve been guilty of this too — get caught up in the romantic notion of the Yankees deriving top-tier production at minimal cost, and while it’s a great thing to see when it does happen in the case of Brett Gardner, or any of the young pitchers, it’s not like the Yankees are the Royals. They can afford to do things like trade Montero for a top starting pitcher and then sign Fielder to replicate and probably outdo the numbers they might expect Montero to put up.
The funny thing is, I’m certainly not even advocating for this move. I want them to keep Montero. But I thought it might be helpful to throw out the idea that if Montero did end up going somewhere else, it’s not like that hypothetical production is irreplaceable.
The point of the Fielder/Montero comp is to point at the money and the age of the players. The Yankees may have the resources to pay, you will have Montero under team control in his 20s, and then if he was performing well could get a deserving contract from the Yankees. Its a matter of getting the years where he produces the most for the team at great value, rather than paying a free agent millions of dollars to receive good value upfront but receive negative value at the end when he is out of his prime and still getting paid $20 million. (Arod, Posada, Giambi, etc.)
Age in baseball now more than ever is valuable which has coincided with the value of prospects increasing, as players aren’t having the same level of success in their 30s now than in the 1990s.
Phil Hughes is currently in his 4th season as a Yankee, despite that he is only 25. Although he hasn’t performed to the expectations of the 2007 hype, he still has done a good job as a Yankee. He still hasn’t entered his prime, and has been valuable because of his contract. At 25 he will continue to improve and be under team control. If he was picked up as a free agent he be looked at in a different scope since he would have failed to reach expectations because of the money he would be making or the age (lets say 29) he would be at.
People get caught up in highly touted homegrown prospects because of the value they bring, but also because they spend more of their years as Yankees (6 years) than players that would be signed to contracts during free agency.
I was originally interpreting Larry’s point about Montero/Fielder to be pointing out that there are a lot more big bats that available via free agency than elite starters and that if you can trade a cost controlled elite bat for a cost controlled elite starter you should do it because it’s easy to buy the bat. That doesn’t mean you don’t want to develop and keep both if you can. It’s an interesting point though, and one I hadn’t really considered until I thought Larry was making it. Were you?
I don’t know whether I’m a prospect hugger or not. I was certainly in favor of the Granderson deal. I was also a proponent of the Hughes for Santana deal and while I’m happy that he didn’t, I still think that Cashman lucked out in that he was able to sign CC and Santana’s arm didn’t hold up. Knowing what I knew then, I’d still be in favor of it. I’ll be sad if they trade any of the big three though and I’m really that big a believer in Ubaldo Jiminez. I tend to look at the same way Larry does though, I’m not a proponent of the deal but if Cashman/Newman etc think it’s a good move, I trust their judgment. However, I’m troubled by Cashman’s recent remarks that some guys would be untouchable in his opinion but he has bosses. I hope he doesn’t get pressured into dealing Montero/Betances/Banuelos by Hal or Hank.
Free agency is used to fill up holes in teams. The point I’m making is that we could fill up that whole from within with Montero, without needing to sign another player for a 7 year 140 million dollar contract. We could use that money to fill up another hole we need or save it for down the road for a player that fills a position that we actually need.
Sure I get that but from a budgetary standpoint, what’s the difference between keeping Montero and signing a 7 year, 140 million elite starter and trading Montero for a cost controlled pitcher and replacing him with a 7 year, 140 million bat? Plus it’s probably easier to find the bat via free agency than the arm. That’s all I’m saying.
I’m not 100% sold on Ubaldo so I’m not advocating the deal but if you are a believer in Ubaldo, I think it makes some sense based on the above logic.
This isn’t Montero, Betances, Nova plus a prospect. Adding Banuelos changes the structure of the whole trade giving Rockies an opportunity to have a potential ace (Banuelos), a potential perennial all star (Montero), and a potential ace who is more likely to become a #2 pitcher (Betances). This also disregards that they get Nova as well. The price for Jimenez doe not justify what the Yankees could potentially give away if Banuelos is included in the deal. If they could get Jimenez without having to give up Banuelos, then I’m okay with it.
This whole thing is on the basis that Banuelos is included in the deal. The contract makes Jimenez’s more valuable, but the amount of talent needed to get him, should invcline the Yankees to stand pat.
I’m not in favor of the trade with or without Banuelos and frankly and I know I”m in the minority on this but I expect Betances to be the better pitcher between Banuelos and Betances.
I’ve been saying look at past deals for aces and #2s and where have they hurt the Yankees?
Janzen et.al. for Cone.
McGregor et.al. for Doyle Alexander in ’76 was a good trade because while McGregor went to one World Series with the Orioles in ’79 and won one with the Orioles in ’83, Alexander did help the ’76 Yanks get to their first World Series since ’64, before the Yanks won back to back World Series in ’77 and ’78, went to the ALCS in ’80 and another WS in ’81. It took McGregor 7 years to win a World Series and he had a nice cast surrounding him in ’83 as well as ’79. Also Alexander overall was a not too shabby guy to trade for as he finished with 194 career wins as a starter mostly. The worst trade involving Alexander was Detroit trading John Smoltz for Alexander or was it since Alexander helped the Tigers win the division in dramatic fashion (Toronto’s epic season-ending collapse)?
Alexander went an incredible 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 11 starts (88.1 IP, a third of an inning over 8 IP/GS) for the ’87 Tigers. He then had a decent ’88 for the Tigers followed by a so-so ’89 / final MLB season where he led the league in losses but still made 34 starts and pitched over 200 innings.
The Alexander trades are perfect dual-argument for trading prospects for proven commodities. The first trade helped the Yanks return to respectability while the second one helped the Tigers to an ALCS.
Is Betances or Banuelos the next Smoltz and is Jimenez the next Alexander? Too early to tell, but riddle me this: say Betances is traded for Jimenez, begins his MLB career next year and pitches like a #3 in 2012-13, a #2 2014-15, and an ace 2016-17, then becomes a free agent after 2017. What’s to stop the Yanks from pursuing him with Teixiera off the books after 2016, A-Rod off the books after 2017, and Sabathia off the books after 2018 assuming he signs a three-year extension or a new seven-year contract after opting out?
Even Wells, Bush, and whoever (his name escapes me) for Clemens was a great trade, since it involved two farm system players.
What has Dioner Navarro done since he was traded for Randy Johnson?
Bottom line is you have to give up something to get something and the Yanks have historically not made trades where who they traded away were guys who went on to tons of success with one exception: Mike Lowell, but Lowell was blocked by Brosius.
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I say move Montero FROM BEHIND THE PLATE immediately. I would love to see his bat in the majors, and with our other prospects at catcher and defense of Russell Martin, Montero needs to switch positions. If he were to become a right fielder/first baseman/DH, he would take at bats away from Posada, Swisher, and Teixeira (who aren’t exactly having career years). Learning a new position shouldn’t be too hard, we just have to know Montero on 1st is better than him behind the plate.
If Swisher leaves this offseason, Montero plays RF next year (our left and center field has tons of speed, and we have short porch in right. His mobility or lack there of is ok). If Teixeira never gets back above .250, they split time at 1B and DH.
Montero is clearly bored in AAA and his bat could provide a spark that we need, as he is a better MLB hitter right now than Martin, Posada, Cervelli, Chris Dickerson, and Ramiro Pena, all of whom have spent time in the big league lineup.
Just don’t trade Montero, I am on the verge of a SAVE MONTERO blog for it.