(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog).
Some of Brian Cashman's best decisions have involved trades he didn't make.
The trade deadline has resulted in some of the most lopsided deals in history, but that doesn’t mean evey swap made under the gun has to have a winner and loser. Each year, there are just as many deadline deals that are prudent as ones that are impetuous, but what about the trades that don’t get made? Sometimes, by not pulling an itchy trigger, a general manager can make his team a deadline winner even without making a single transaction.
During his Yankee tenure, Brian Cashman has not been very active during the trade deadline. In fact, when he has made a major in-season deal, it has often come earlier in the year when the pressure of the deadline was off in the distance. What Cashman has been very good at, however, is avoiding impetuous deals that would have a negative impact on the future more than help in the present.
In his first year as GM, Cashman inherited a strong team and built it into a powerhouse with additions like Chuck Knoblauch and Orlando Hernandez. However, despite compiling a record setting winning percentage over the first four months, the Yankees were still front and center amid several rumors at the deadline. In particular, it was reported that the team was close to securing Randy Johnson for a package including and a combination of prospects like , , and .
Although it’s hard to imagine that Johnson would have had a negative impact on the Yankees, an improvement would have been impossible. Granted, if the deal had been made, the Yankees may not have had to face Johnson in the 2001 World Series, but it’s also possible they wouldn’t have gotten there without the likes of and , two players later acquired using players rumored to be in the mix for Johnson.
In 1999, the Yankees reportedly considered trading Andy Pettitte for Roberto Hernandez.
In 1999, was having one of his most difficult seasons in the big leagues. During the first half, the normally reliable lefty compiled a 5-7 record with a 5.59 ERA, leading to speculation that the Yankees might trade him before the deadline. One of the more prominent to the Phillies for two prospects who would then be flipped to Tampa for . Had that trade been made, there not only wouldn’t have been a core four, but it’s also possible the Yankees wouldn’t have had four championships to celebrate. Because of Cashman’s ability to resist the pressure from above to trade Pettitte, the Yankees were able to enjoy 85 more wins, including nine in the post season, from the homegrown left hander.
The next season, the most often discussed Yankees’ target was . According to the Daily News, , one of the team’s top prospects at the time, was believed to be the centerpiece of a potential deal that also included names like , and . Had that trade been consummated, the Yankees might have benefited from Sosa’s prolific power, but may have also run the risk of changing the dynamic of the team. The Yankees would have also missed out on Soriano’s fantastic 2002 and 2003 seasons, and been denied the subsequent players acquired in future trades involving those rumored to be in the Sosa deal. Finally, the Yankees would have also been further saddled with Sosa’s steroid baggage, which combined with revelations about (assuming the Sosa acquisition wouldn’t have precluded the Giambi signing), could have become an even bigger distraction.
In 2005, the Yankees were searching for a center fielder to take over from the struggling Bernie Williams. Their prime target was believed to be Mark Kotsay, but Billy Beane reportedly demanded a package of and . Luckily, Cashman resisted the need, opting instead to go with fill-ins like . Although that decision would come back to haunt the Yankees in the 2005 ALDS, when a misplay by Crosby contributed to a loss, the Bronx Bombers are currently enjoying the fruits of the players they didn’t trade.
Even before 2005, Cano had been an often rumored component in several earlier deadline deals, but thanks to both prudence, and luck, the Yankees wound up retaining the future All Star. Had he been dealt, the extent to which the Yankees would have suffered is hard to calculate, but needless to say, the organization is more than happy to not find out.
The jury is still out on whether Cashman's decision to pass on Cliff Lee was a good one.
The most recent deadline trade that will be judged on the basis of not going through was last July’s reported acquisition of Cliff Lee for a package including Jesus Montero and either or . At various points over the past year, assessment of Cashman’s decision to back away from the trade has run the gamut from a colossal mistake to fortunate reprieve, but only the future performance of the involved components will determine the wisdom, or lack thereof, involved.
This year, the most compelling trade deadline rumor has been for a package of the Yankees’ best prospects, including Montero, Dellin Betances, and Manny Banuelos. Cashman only has five more days to determine if such a deal would be in the best interest of the Yankees. Hopefully, he isn’t feeling any pressure. After all, if the deal backfires, it’ll only become a permanent part of his legacy.
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The Yanks have to get a starting pitcher (they’re fine everywhere else) because their rotation after Sabathia is not good enough to win the World Series, the only goal for the Yanks.
Keep dreaming if you think the Yanks are going with a Sabathia/Burnett/Three from Hughes, Nova, Betances, and Banuelos rotation for 2013. The only way that could possibly happen is if the Yanks win it all this year and next and think it’s time to see what the kids can do even if it means sacrificing a World Series for a year. I just don’t see the Yanks doing that even if they take the 2012 and/or 2013 WS.
If Cashman doesn’t make a deal because he is afraid to pull the trigger or doesn’t have enough to land someone, he should be overruled again if he has the pieces then let go in the offseason, World Series championship or not, especially not or if the piece he didn’t want helps the Yanks win it all because if it were up to him that piece would not have been a Yankee.
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RON Reply:
July 28th, 2011 at 10:25 am
At some point we need to see what our farm system can do. Imagine if we didnt sign Arod to that Albatross of a contract. We possibly could have Adrian Beltre at 3rd for a fraction of the cost. If we didnt send IPK and AJAX and Coke for Granderson, we would have IPK in our rotation and AJAX in center and coke as LOOGY, at a fraction of the cost.The only reasons why i like Cashman lately is when he hasnt done something, kept Cano,kept gardner, kept nova.We have the makings of a youth overhaul. We have to look forward to the 2014 and beyond seasons. Theses 20 million dollar contracts that we have given out will hamstring our ability to field the best possible team. Just because we have 250 million dollar budget doesnt mean we cant have a 150 million team.
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William J. Reply:
July 29th, 2011 at 10:17 am
How exactly is Arod’s contract an Albatross? Did it prevent the team from wasting over $10 million on a reliever its GM didn’t want? The Yankees are making so much money that nothing about Arod’s contract has been prohibitive. About the only discernible impact was the 2009 World Series that they don’t win without him.
As for the Granderson deal, if the Yankees didn’t have him they wind up spending twice as much trying to replace his offense.
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RON Reply:
July 29th, 2011 at 11:34 am
You are kidding right? The contract is scheduled to pay him 30 million as a 40 yr old dh. Hell, he is overpaid this year. I am not saying we didnt do well with Granderson. Im saying that if we kept our prospects
we wouldnt be looking for another starter and have less holes to fill.Imagine CC/IPK/Colon/Garcia (AJ as an afterthought). The run differential would be maybe +110 to 120 rather than the +131 it is. The soriano deal was just stupid and indefensible and an owner meddling. We need to look forward…Cano will need huge bucks in 2014…gardner will need to be locked up…CC will be getting 27mil…arod 30mil…tex 25 mil..jeter 17mil..granderson at least 20 mil.. those 7 players will prob avg 20 mil at least.We need to supplement them with a new round of prospects and we have them in our revamped farm system. I know all of the above may be considered revisionist history but why cant we blend big money spending(Yankees) with frugal prospect development(Rays). Am I just dreaming?
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William J. Reply:
July 29th, 2011 at 1:50 pm
I am not kidding in the least bit. The annualized value of Arod’s contract is not an albatross for a team like the Yankees, and that’s before factoring in the marketing ramifications of his personal performance, not to mention the residual benefits of the WS he was instrumental in winning. Complaining about Arod’s contract is silly unless all factors are taken into account.
Your point about Granderson escapes me completely. Having an MVP-caliber CF’er is much more important than a middle of the rotation starter. The exchange isn’t even close. Yanks are much better off with Granderson instead of IPK, who hasn’t exactly established himself (and what he has accomplished has come in the NL West).
I have no idea why any Yankee fan would want the team to adopt the Rays’ model, which it uses out of necessity. You don’t get bonus points for spending less, so as long as the Yankees are making money, I don’t get the fascination with austerity.
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RON Reply:
July 29th, 2011 at 3:12 pm
Imagine using the Rays model that has them producing year after year high caliber starting pitching while being able to back that up with big bucks to fill holes? Imagine instead of trading those SP’s like the Rays have to do and signing them to team friendly contracts because we can afford it.
Im saying lets get away from buying our teams and lets grow them again. Yes we have resources but just because we do doesnt mean we should spend them haphazardly (the arod contract when no one else was bidding within 100 million, soriano contract, and im sorry to say Jeter). and you missed my point with Granderson, I agree he is putting up a MVP type season. I am just putting an alternate version of if we didnt make that trade. We would have a young above average CF, a solid mid rotation SP and a LOOGY going forward. And there is a budget, as much as you say those contracts arent cost prohibitive, I rather be at 150 mil at trade deadline than 210 mil and have to pay 2 dollars for every dollar because of the luxury tax
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William J. Reply:
July 29th, 2011 at 3:20 pm
The Rays model was built on finishing in last place for many years and losing key homegrown free agents, both of which allowed them to accumulate high draft picks. I have no interest in following that approach. When the Yankees stop makes millions of dollars each year, I’ll worry about their cash flow. In the meantime, I have no problem building the best team possible using every available resource.
I wonder if Cash’s contract situation will have any impact on what he does before the deadline. Does he feel the need to go out with a blast? Will he want to go out with one last big trade to solidify his legacy?
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William J. Reply:
July 29th, 2011 at 1:51 pm
I doubt it, but that’s a good point. If Cash doesn’t have a long-term commitment to the organization in mind, I hope he doesn’t take a short-term approach to trades.
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RON Reply:
July 29th, 2011 at 4:07 pm
2014 yankees
cano 20 million
cc 27 million
arod 33 million
jeter 17 million
tex 25 million
mo 15 million
gardner 10 million
hughes 10 million
montero 5 million
banuelos 1 million
betances 1 million
justin upton 20 million
granderson 20 million
matt cain 20 million
1b tex
2b cano
ss jeter/nunez
3rd arod/laird
c montero
of granderson
of upton
of gardner
sp cc
sp hughes
sp banuelos
sp betances
sp matt cain
rp mo
rp robertson
and 8 more to fill out for 10 million
and this is best case scenario
the 260 million dollar team…..and this makes you happy?
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