Why I (still) don’t think it makes sense to trade Jesus Montero

By Matt Imbrogno On June 27, 2011 · 24 Comments · In Trade Musings

Buster Olney had an insider only piece about rival evaluators “taking note” of Jesus Montero’s offensive downturn in 2011. He mentions that some think the Yankees “could push Montero this season ‘in an effort to recoup some value.’” (MLBTR)

I’ve said many times before that I don’t think trading Montero would be prudent for the Yankees unless they were getting absolute top of the line talent back for him. I still believe that and always will believe that. Right now, it is still not a good time to trade Jesus Montero.

When I discuss trades, I like to discuss actual value and perceived value. It’s hard for us to get a feel for the former, since we’re not talent evaluators, we’re not real GMs, etc. But we can pretty easily identify perceived value most of the time. With Montero, there’s a bit of a reversal. We more or less know his actual value. He’s a guy who probably won’t stick at catcher but could probably fake the position for a little bit while absolutely mashing. His perceived value could be low considering the downturn in performance and the attitude issues, but when the Yankees start trade talks with anyone, you’d better bet that Jesus Montero’s is one of the first names brought up.

As documented here and many other places, there have been not only performance issues with Montero this year, but apparently attitude/maturity issues as well. Both of those things have contributed to lower Montero’s value. Why would the Yankees be interested in trading him when his value is at what is presumably the lowest it has been? If the Yankees did want to trade Montero, it would make much more sense to wait for him to start hitting and let him build up his value again. If they pull the trigger too quickly, they could end up with another Jose Tabata situation in which they trade a player for a pretty minimal return when his value is low (though Tabata’s non-baseball playing issues were definitely more of a concern than Montero’s).

Again, and this is probably the most important issue at play here, as far as we know, the type of talent that you’d trade a prospect like Montero for is likely not going to be available this year. TEams are locking up their best position players and pitchers and taking advantage of team control. Even the most talented of players in the “use-Montero-to-trade-for-him” bracket–guys like Felix Hernandez, Josh Johnson, Justin Verlander, Justin Upton–are relatively affordable and franchise staples; they’re not going anywhere.

Montero’s value is just about the lowest it’s been right now and the guys that you’d want to trade him for are not available and probably won’t become so. It is still not time to trade Jesus Montero.

Tagged with: Jesus Montero

24 Responses to Why I (still) don’t think it makes sense to trade Jesus Montero

T.O. Chris says:

June 27, 2011 at 11:20 am

I agree with pretty much everything here. The best time to trade him (if you plan on it) would be in the offseason when more teams, and pitchers, would come into play.

I will say this, I wouldn’t say Upton isn’t going anywhere. He isn’t going anywhere for a hefty sum obviously, but Kevin Towers seems pretty sincere that he will trade anyone for the right price. Obviously Upton is having a good season, and rebounding his value (as if he ever lost as much as some people would say) but he could be pried loose if for no other reason than they have holes everywhere and Upton can’t pitch. That said I don’t think we should or would pay the price it would take to get him. For the Yankees offense will always be more replenishable than pitching, and as a right fielder he simply doesn’t play a premium enough position to empty the farm.

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Steve S. Reply:
June 28th, 2011 at 7:35 am

Towers is very close with Cashman and worked inside the Yankee organization last year scouting their farm system. I have no doubt he has even more info about Montero than we do, for better or worse.

It’s also tough to deal with someone who knows your system that well. The sense on the Yankee side would be that he could pick their pocket, and they’d be hesitant to pull the trigger on a deal.

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Reggie C. says:

June 27, 2011 at 11:44 am

Once it was made official that Montero would start and likely remain in Scranton for most of the year, the kid’s trade value had no where to go but down. Montero doesn’t play in the PCL. Many great prospects don’t tear up AAA pitching, but go on and hit well in the majors. Montero clearly has more pop than what he’s shown this year. That much I’m certain. He’s getting on base at any rate, so I think he can post .350 obp marks from the get go.

There’s still a lot to look forward to with Montero. That said I wonder if Cashman would pull the trigger if Tampa offered Matt Moore for Montero straight up. Tampa has great depth already at SP.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 11:57 am

Montero only has a .340 OBP right now, so I’m not sure you can expect a .350 from the get go. I fully believe Montero will be a solid bat at the major league level, something like Carlos Lee in his prime years. But I think he is going to struggle in his first run through in the major leagues. He’s going to really have to have his focus on defense to start, and his strikeout to walk ratio isn’t going to play well in the major leagues if it stays the same or gets worse because of the better pitching.

Once he settles in and gets his feet wet in the majors I expect big things, but I have tempered expectations for his first tour through the bigs.

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Justice Beaver Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 12:03 pm

See I disagree to an extent, which is the reason he is not up now. I think when he first enters the majors the Yankees will want him to hit and predominately be the DH. He can learn and adjust to MLB pitching and find his stroke.

Then you start working him in as backup catcher playing once a week or twice a week. More if he gets the hang of it. I think Montero is not up solely, because of Posada’s turnaround.

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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 12:19 pm

I think he would split time, but they are going to want him working behind the plate at least twice a week to start. He would take over right away as backup catcher, and with Martin’s injury history I think they would use him as much as they could to help rest Russell’s bat.

One of the main reasons he isn’t up in my opinion is the fact he has underwhelmed at the plate. They want him to start a hot streak like the second half of last year before being called up, but even still I would expect struggles. I just don’t feel he has grasped the finer points of pitch recognition, and bat control yet and that will hurt him at this level. He is a very free swinger, on a similar level with Cano, but I don’t think he has the same bad ball hit ability. He may never walk a ton, and he probably will always K a decent amount, but he has to improve in these areas in a fairly decent way.

The worst part of Montero’s first half is not his lack of HRs but just his lack of extra base hits. It seems like almost everyday he is 1-3 or 1-4 with a single. He just hasn’t been putting the ball in play with the authority you would expect for triple A pitching. Balls don’t need to be leaving the yard, but they should be reaching the wall for doubles with more regularity.

I’d love to be wrong though and see him hit from the start.

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tdelisle says:

June 27, 2011 at 1:24 pm

Why won’t the Yankees just show some guts and roll the dice on Montero. Let the guy play! Hey, if a major league team can seriously put a guy like Francisco Cervelli behind the plate, and masquerade him as a catcher; Why not Montero? Who at least will hit. What redeeming values does Cervelli possess, pray tell? The Montero debacle is a microcosm of issues that should hurry Brian Cashman’s exit out of the Bronx when his contract expires at the end of the 2011 season. Cashman has single-handedly mis-managed the farm,its key prospects, the major league roster, and the 2010 offseason; while along the way being arrogant, disrespectful, rude and unprofessional to his own bosses. I would package both Cashman and Cervelli and ship them to some unsuspecting team in exchange for that elusive “Plan B” pitcher that Cashman now can’t seem to find.

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MJ Recanati says:

June 27, 2011 at 1:28 pm

“Why would the Yankees be interested in trading him when his value is at what is presumably the lowest it has been?”

Because the Yankees must feel as though Montero’s value today — lower than last year, to be sure — can go lower still. Assuming they feel that way then trading him now would be the justifiable course of action and probably indicates some remorse that they didn’t trade him last year when they had other (better) opportunities.

To be clear, I’m not saying the Yankees should trade Montero (although I’m not saying they shouldn’t either), I’m just trying to guess as to what the Yankees might be thinking. After all, it appears the team has no intention of calling him up so every day he spends in the minors actually does impact his value.

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Duh, Innings! says:

June 27, 2011 at 1:35 pm

Cashman was an idiot to not include Montero in a trade for Cliff Lee.

The 2010 ALDS rotation could’ve been Sabathia/Pettitte/Lee/Hughes.

The 2011 ALDS rotation could’ve been Sabathia/Pettitte/Lee/Burnett (Pettitte would’ve returned) or Sabathia/Burnett/Lee/Colon or Garcia had Pettitte not returned.

Fuck Jesus Montero, an overvalued nothing.

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MJ Recanati Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 1:51 pm

I assume you mean the 2009 and 2010 rotations since, obviously, the “2011 ALDS rotation” hasn’t been set a full three months in advance of the start of the 2011 MLB playoffs! :-)

Also, you can’t assume that Pettitte would’ve returned…

Finally, “Fuck Jesus Montero, an overvalued nothing” seems a little extreme, no?

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Duh, Innings! Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 11:30 pm

2009? Seattle traded Lee to the Rangers last year. Lee helped the Rangers get to last year’s World Series. Pettitte was a Yankee last year, hence a 2010 ALDS rotation of Sabathia/Pettitte/Lee/Hughes. I could’ve seen Pettitte return this year, is what I meant.

The Yankees would’ve most likely locked up Lee for 2011 and beyond, hence a possible 2011 ALDS rotation of Sabathia/Burnett/Lee/Colon or Garcia had Pettitte not returned (had he returned, Sabathia/Pettitte/Lee/Burnett.)

Montero is an overvalued nothing because he hasn’t a single MLB at-bat and the Yankees haven’t acquired a top flight player trading him. I’m sick of hearing about him.

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Moshe Mandel Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 1:54 pm

He did include Montero in the trade for Cliff Lee. Seattle decided they preferred Smoak. And I’m going to save this comment, see how you feel about Montero a year or two from now.

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MJ Recanati Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 1:58 pm

“I’m going to save this comment, see how you feel about Montero a year or two from now.”

LOL! Although I get the distinct impression that Montero will never play for the Yanks. They’ve come up with every circumstance and excuse in the book to keep him out of the Bronx, almost as if they developed him without ever intending to put him in pinstripes.

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Duh, Innings! Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 11:38 pm

Um, if Montero was so good, he wouldn’t need another year or two of development to prove me wrong.

He wasn’t even good enough to get called up when Posada sucked ass.

Since when did Cashman offer Montero for Lee?

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MJ Recanati Reply:
June 28th, 2011 at 9:53 am

“He wasn’t even good enough to get called up when Posada sucked ass.”

That he didn’t get called up doesn’t mean he wasn’t good enough to replace Posada while he was struggling. The Yankees didn’t call anyone up to replace Posada, in case you didn’t notice.

The Yankees chose to keep Montero in AAA for their own reasons. Perhaps Montero isn’t good enough to be called up. But you can’t claim with certainty that that’s why he wasn’t called up.

“Since when did Cashman offer Montero for Lee?”

Seriously? Were you abroad last July 9th?

http://tinyurl.com/22oz7ng
http://tinyurl.com/2d7wxw6
http://tinyurl.com/3g7dup3

Pick a link; all three say the same thing. I could cite dozens of others.

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oldpep says:

June 27, 2011 at 2:10 pm

How many Yankee farmhands develop bad attitudes? We keep hearing it about different prospects, so either it’s malarkey or there’s something going on that breeds discontent in the Yankee minor leagues (or we keep signing bad attitude kids.)
Why is half of this season more important statistically than the entirety of last year? When Jorge was awful, many of the same people that are now using Montero’s season to date were saying Jorge needed more time to show whether he was done or not. (And I’m not convinced the past few weeks have shown any more than what happened before them). Did Jesus forget how to hit this offseason? Or maybe the past few years were a fluke, and he’s not really going to be a good hitter in MLB.
I can’t imagine Montero isn’t more than a little disappointed when he sees Cervelli getting so many chances despite being a poor defender who can’t throw straight and can’t hit a lick while he sits in AAA in a league he did so well in last year.

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MJ Recanati Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 2:34 pm

“How many Yankee farmhands develop bad attitudes? We keep hearing it about different prospects, so either it’s malarkey or there’s something going on that breeds discontent in the Yankee minor leagues (or we keep signing bad attitude kids.)”

I’m not trying to be argumentative but, be honest, do you follow each and every other major league team’s prospects to know that the Yankees are the only ones that have a reputation for attitude/behavioral problems?

Following prospects in general — meaning being aware of their existence and the scouting reports about them — isn’t the same as following the minutiae of their careers. Perhaps you’re only attuned to the rumored/reported non-baseball issues of Yankee farmhands because you’re a Yankee fan (as I am).

Finally, as to a potential reason why farmhands might have attitude issues: they’re people in their teens or early 20′s. Many are away from home for the first time, some don’t speak English and most are living in cities (or states, countries or even continents) that they’re not orginally from. Baseball is a frustrating sport sometimes and when you mix failure, frustration, homesickness, a change of environment, expectations and general immaturity, I imagine you’ll find a lot of minor league players not quite as comfortable or relaxed as a polished MLB veteran…

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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 29th, 2011 at 11:01 pm

Hanley Ramirez had a huge attitude problem while in the minor leagues. It’s not just us, that’s talented young kids.

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ralph perullo says:

June 27, 2011 at 5:55 pm

I saw Montero play against Durham this past weeekend. He is as solid as 50% of the Catchers in the MLB.With 3 potential MLB catchers in there farm system,Montero should be playing as Martin back up. cervelli has shown he is great character and loves the game but in not an MLB player.

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Duh, Innings! Reply:
June 27th, 2011 at 11:42 pm

…and yet the Yankees signed a reclamation project in Martin to be the everyday catcher.

Montero has to be an everyday catcher to be a Yankee, have any worth to the Yankees cuz too much has been written about him for him to be anything less. To make him a backup would render his trade value next to nothing.

‘Thing is, Montero can’t play defense well enough to wrest the everyday catcher job from Martin who will be the 2012 Yankees everyday catcher with or without a super-backup assuming Cervelli isn’t the backup.

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Paul says:

June 27, 2011 at 9:06 pm

One issue that I never seem to see discusses on the topic of calling up Montero is game calling. Perhaps they don’t want a rookie learning the hitters and how to call games down the pennant race? Better to start next year early. not trying to say this is the reason. Just that it might be a factor in the totality of factors that go into such a decision
O

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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 29th, 2011 at 11:02 pm

His coaches say he is getting better at this part of the game, but he is still not a great game caller.

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Bronx Bombs says:

June 28, 2011 at 1:32 am

Hello? Anybody home? Dude’s 21. Mike Piazza didn’t make his major league debut until he was 23. Yogi Berra played just 7 games when he was 21. I’ll bet you also would have cancelled Carson after his first season.

Get a grip.

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Steve S. says:

June 28, 2011 at 7:42 am

If they pull the trigger too quickly, they could end up with another Jose Tabata situation in which they trade a player for a pretty minimal return when his value is low (though Tabata’s non-baseball playing issues were definitely more of a concern than Montero’s).

This is where I disagree. Jose Tabata has shown in his 3ish years in MLB that he’s just not all that good. His value wasn’t necessarily down, it was exposed for what it really is. The same thing may very well be happening to Montero. Don’t forget, he’s never had outstanding plate discipline, and may be getting a bit exposed by AAA pitchers with better control. I know you can cite his strong showing in AAA late last year, but later in the year most of the good pitchers have been promoted and are on MLB rosters. Montero’s value may not be down, it may simply be becoming more clear as he climbs the ladder. If you want to argue “He’s young” and adjustments will be made, his attitude/effort issues argue against that taking place. Work ethic and coachability are key to making the endless adjustments needed to be a top flight MLB player. It’s not all about talent at the MLB level, which is why a good % of can’t miss prospects..miss.

I have zero problem dealing him, in the right deal of course .

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