Open Thread-Where’s Montero?

70 Responses to Open Thread-Where’s Montero?

1. G says:

   June 12, 2011 at 7:03 pm

   I’m not totally sure. I’m hoping he’s getting called up. There are no aces on the trading block, and the Yankees aren’t dealing Montero for anything but an ace. Think about it, last season they were trying to trade him for Cliff Lee. The second the Mariners demanded Nuñez additionally, the Yankees declined. Nuñez is a decent utility infielder, but the fact that adding even a piece that small was enough to make the Yankees pull the deal shows how highly they treasure Montero.

   My guess is he’ll be called up in a week or so. Martin is doing terribly, if things continues to go as they have been, Posada’s average will easily surpass Martin’s. They need to replace him sooner or later.

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   Steve S. Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 7:26 pm

   Right, but with a caveat. Cashman was willing trade Jesus for two months of Cliff Lee. Check that, he was will to trade Montero+David Adams+a 3rd prospect for two months of Cliff Lee. Not only that, but Jack Z (who rose in SEA as a minor league expert) walked away from that deal, preferring a package around Justin Smoak. And as we saw, there was no guarantee Lee was going to return if the Yanks traded for him.

   This notion that Montero can only be traded for one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball strikes me as a bit far fetched. For instance, Madison Bumgarner is not a top 5 pitcher, and Jesus alone would not be enough to land him. I think fans are overvaluing Montero since they believe the Yankee spin that he’ll stick at Catcher. Most objective sources view him as a 1B/DH, which alters his value dramatically.

   Further, he’s anything but untouchable. We have a 28 year old Russel Martin at the MLB level who will probably be the AL All-Star starter at Catcher. For org depth we have Romine and Sanchez behind Martin. Montero is very expendable from a roster standpoint.

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   G Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 7:36 pm

   I didn’t say anything about top 5 only, that’d be ridiculous. I meant only for a clear top of the rotation guy, not a King Felix, Doc, or Lincecum type. There’s simply no way they’re trading him for a mediocre pitcher, it’s going to have to be a #2 guy. Hell when Chris Carpenter’s name was floating around there wasn’t a single person in the press (bar maybe you…) who thought Montero for Carpenter was a good deal for the Yankees. You may be underestimating his value.

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   Steve S. Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 7:58 pm

   No, I get what this is about. You think Jesus is a 4+ win player so you want a 4 + win pitcher in return. The only problem with that theory is Jesus hasn’t proven anything at the MLB level yet, so you have to knock down the win projection by a failure rate. I think you can get a #2 for him straight up. A #1 and you’ll have to add some pieces.

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   G Reply:
   June 13th, 2011 at 3:43 am

   I agree completely, I think we’re on the same page, just wording things extremely haha

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2. AndrewYF says:

   June 12, 2011 at 7:38 pm

   If Montero can be had for Charlie Morton, that must mean Mike Trout can be had for not much more than Ivan Nova.

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   Steve S. Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 7:40 pm

   Well….it is Tony Reagins ….

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   G Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 7:41 pm

   Exactly my line of thought. This guy undervalues Montero ridiculously. The #3 prospect in all of baseball who is expected to debut this year is a lot more valuable than a 21 year old pitcher like Bumgarner who still needs to prove himself and pitch near 200 innings, or a #4 pitcher.

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   Steve S. Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 7:46 pm

   This #3 argument is largely irrelevant. GMs don’t give a damn about who BA thinks is good or isn’t. They make their own evaluations based on their own scouting reports and the needs of their club. And most independent sources think he won’t stick at Catcher.

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   T.O. Chris Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 8:48 pm

   Not to mention if you re-did the list right now he would be like 9 or so.

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   Steve S. Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 9:02 pm

   Yeah, and that’s with guys like Hosmer, Brown and Moustakas being promoted. Not having a big year.

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   T.O. Chris Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 9:30 pm

   With Hosmer and Moustakas the Royals have a dealy corner infield tandem for at least 4-6 years. In fact is Alex Gordon has finally got it, and sticks in LF, and Wil Myers makes it as a right fielder they could all 4 corners nailed down with young talent.

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   G Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 9:52 pm

   But you’d never do a top 100 mid-season for this very reason. I know info on minor leaguers is always at a premium, but for most of his years in the MiLB, he’s been a slow starter in the vein of Sabathia or Teixeira: start pretty well, have an excellent end of the seaosn. Last year he struggled all of the first half of the season, but then got ridiculously hot and ended with a .289 average, the same average he has right now while not doing well. If he follows his normal pattern he’ll heat up soon and get his average over .300 and get near 20 homers.

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   T.O. Chris Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 10:05 pm

   That batting average is hilariously misleading. He may have the same BA he finished with last year, but the other numbers tell the story.

   Montero this year .289/.330./408
   Montero last year .289/.353/.517

   It’s understandable to downgrade him when you realize his strikeout and walk rates are awful. You’re right he is a slow starter, but he is also a ittle bit of a hacker. He has a great swing, but he doesn’t have very good plate discipline. I also believe Montero will finish well if he stays in Scranton all year, but with the way he swings, when he gets called up he is going to struggle in his first go through. I expect Montero to end up a fantastic player, probably a DH, but a middle of the order bat. But I think he is going to struggle when he first comes up. I also don’t think anyone coulod argue that Hosmer should be above Montero right now, he destroyed triple A, and now he is being fantastic for the Royals. He already has 3 walk off hits.

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   G Reply:
   June 13th, 2011 at 3:59 am

   Comparing someone to Hosmer as a prospect at the moment is like comparing an ace for the Pirates to Greg Maddux: both may be good but there’s no question who’s better. Hosmer has been nothing short of astoundingly good.

   I think we’re all forgetting Montero is only 21 though. There’s been talk about him for so long that people tend to view him as the kind of guy who needs to be called up now or he’ll never get the chance, but honestly if he spent 3 more years in AAA, he’d be the average age of a promoted catcher. I think he’s got a major league ready bat, but that’s more to say it’s ready for a chance, I don’t expect to see him hit .300 or 30 home runs for a year or two.

   About him being a DH, I think he’ll start out as a catcher, and if he develops he’ll stay there, but more likely he’ll catch until Romine is fully developed, at which point Montero will assume DH duties and Austin will catch. He might be a bit bitter at first but tough, that’s how it works.

   I do think he’ll remain a Yankee though. I’m sure the Yanks would consider moving him for a great #2 or #! guy, but the thing is I don’t see a guy like that coming on the block this season. There may be one available next season, but by next season he’ll be even more developed, and Banuelos and Betances will be filling in and pitching won’t be as desperately needed, so there will be little reason to trade away a guy with such a high ceiling.

   

   RobM Reply:
   June 13th, 2011 at 4:01 am

   Says who?

   Klaw just updated his top list and moved Montero UP one slot, not down.

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3. G says:

   June 12, 2011 at 7:39 pm

   Are you even following Russell Martin’s stats? Yeah he may be voted the All-Star starter, but he’s bombing right now, and not in the good way, he’s hitting .232. His only saving grace this season has been that it’s easier to homer in the Bronx than in LA.

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   Steve S. Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 7:42 pm

   http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2011/06/two-rangers-among-all-star-vot.html

   He’s a lock to win the AS vote, that’s all I said. But it tells you something about the state of catcher’s offense in the AL as well.

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   G Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 7:45 pm

   Alex Avila is hitting .291 with as many homers as Martin, and it’s a lot harder to homer in Detroit than in the Bronx. He should be the all-star starter. It just shows how messed up the voting can get, it does nothing to show that Russell is a good player. I think he’s good and should split time with Montero until the All-Star break, after which I think Montero should get the full-time job if he proves he can handle it.

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   Steve S. Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 7:47 pm

   Alex Avila makes Montero look like Johnny Bench. I wouldn’t vote for him.

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   G Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 7:52 pm

   What I can gather for all of this is that you’re one of those “defense is all that matters with a catcher” people. If that’s so: Avila’s fielding percentage is league average at .992 and he’s caught 36% of would be base stealers. I don’t see how that makes his defense bad…

   Anyway getting off-topic, you undervalue Montero.

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   Steve S. Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 7:54 pm

   CS% is one of the more useless stats when it comes to Catchers. It varies greatly from year to year, and as we’ve all heard a zillion times most bases are stolen on the pitcher.

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   T.O. Chris Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 9:14 pm

   I would. Avila is having a hell of a year. I’m not sure what he is exactly going forward in his career but he should be starting AL catcher.

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   RobM Reply:
   June 13th, 2011 at 4:05 am

   No one is voting for Avila to be the All-Star game. It’s not that he doesn’t have some talent, but he’s playing over his head. He’s hardly anything great. Hey, it’s wonderful he’s off to a nice start, but he is not getting an All-Star vote. Move on from that idea because it’s pointless.

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   T.O. Chris Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 8:12 pm

   Being awfully harsh on Martin aren’t you? Are you even watching him play? He’s dealing with a broken toe, and a bad back. He’s clearly in pain, it’s clearly affecting his swing and yet he is still playing. You act as if he is just bad, and like you want to bench him for Montero. If Monter would become starting catcher it would be if Martin went to the DL, but once Russell returned he would be the starter again.

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   G Reply:
   June 13th, 2011 at 4:06 am

   No I really like Martin and I’d like he and Montero to split time. But my point is that even if Montero is not raking in the minors like he can, Martin’s offensive production at the moment is low enough that we can afford to take the risk of putting Montero in the lineup. I would have them split time and compete for the starting job, and if Martin starts producing again and wins out, then send Montero back to continue developing. Yes I’m watching every game and Russell is doing a hell of a job with the pitching staff, but I also follow stats enough to know that he has a .311 OPS this month. I think the fans developed a bit of a love affair with him due to his hot start, and are now a bit afraid to admit that maybe Montero is the answer because I don’t see anyway you can rule out the possibility of him taking the starting job within a month or so.

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4. Steve S. says:

   June 12, 2011 at 7:52 pm

   Anyone watching the Super Regionals? Stafford has some promise. Tall Lefty, sits 90-92 with the fastball. They say he’s “effectively wild” but we haven’t seen that the first few innings tonight. I’ll guess the Yanks think they can make some mechanical tweaks with him to hopefully improve his control. Nice looking prospect.

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   G Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 7:58 pm

   What channel would it be on? I liked the Stafford pick, all his scouting reports seemed to say he was hugely talented but under represented because he hasn’t had the same exposure many guys have had. He looks really promising though.

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   Steve S. Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 8:02 pm

   ESPN 2

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   T.O. Chris Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 8:14 pm

   He looks like he could add some weight on a major league workout regiment and add a few ticks to that fastball.

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   G Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 9:53 pm

   That’s what I’ve read actually, fairly raw talent, but not as risky as a high school pitcher with good stuff. He can definitely get his fastball up around 94 and if they work on his control, he’s golden.

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   T.O. Chris Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 10:08 pm

   He’s what? 6-4, 195? He can easily get that form up to 220-225, that could shift his fastball up more to the 94 range. I didn’t watch all of the game, I saw him top out at 92.

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5. G says:

   June 12, 2011 at 7:55 pm

   That explanation is out dated, his eye infection healed up 3 days ago.

   Things still seem fishy to me. First it’s called a manager’s decision, then they claim it’s because of the eye infection that already healed up. It could’ve come back but I think if that were true it would’ve been the first explanation we got.

   About trading, I don’t think they’d remove him from the lineup if they were planning on trading him, they’d only take him out when they finally did make the trade.

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   Steve S. Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 8:01 pm

   I buy it. He thought he was OK, played a game and probably realized his eyesight wasn’t 100%. If there’s any scarring on the cornea it can make your vision blurry for a long time. I had a corneal abrasion a few months ago, and only recently did I stop waking up in the middle of the night with my eye burning. These things can linger for a long time.

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6. Steve S. says:

   June 12, 2011 at 8:03 pm

   NOW were seeing that wildness. Yikes.

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7. Steve S. says:

   June 12, 2011 at 8:10 pm

   Holey moley. Batter’s interference, instead of 1st and 3rd 1 out its man on 1st with 2 out. What a huge swing in the game.

   ..and Stafford gets out of the (former) jam.

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   T.O. Chris Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 8:19 pm

   I wanted to see, mentally, how he handled that situation. Too bad they took it away, something like that can be an insight to a players ability, and mind.

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   Steve S. Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 8:26 pm

   Yeah, I throw out that 1st inning HR as well. Aluminum bats are ridiculous.

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   T.O. Chris Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 8:34 pm

   They do that to pump the HRs right? I know they say they do it to be different from professionals or whatever, but seriously they want more home runs right?

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   Steve S. Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 8:53 pm

   No, athletic programs are always strapped for cash, so they do it to save money. Wood bats cost more and break like crazy. That’s why so many clubs weight their own workouts and the Cape Cod League more than anything that goes on in the NCAA. The Cape is something of an all star league with wood bats.

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   T.O. Chris Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 8:55 pm

   That makes sense.

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8. T.O. Chris says:

   June 12, 2011 at 8:33 pm

   Regarding the whole Montero talk above, I will say Steve, It’s not really far to say what would you get 1-1 for Montero. Very few trades go the way of Brett Lawrie for Shawn Marcum, if he goes it’s in a package for a number 1 or a young number 2 pitcher.

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   Steve S. Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 9:04 pm

   I only mention that because I keep seeing fans say “I wouldn’t give him up for anything but a #1″ and the reality is he won’t net you a true #1 straight up. You’d have to sweeten the pot.

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   T.O. Chris Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 9:20 pm

   This is true, but very few if any prospects are worth that. I think the real argument is what is he worth if you don’t add Banuelos into any deal. I would say Betances too but for a top guy you probably have to trade both of them. I would trade Montero, Nova, and Betances right now for Brett Anderson. It could bite you later if Betances figures it out, but under the contract he has, and the potential he hasn’t tapped into he’s special. Plus he’s a lefty ground ball pitcher with plus stuff, he’s perfect for Yankee stadium.

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   G Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 9:57 pm

   Of course not, expecting Felix Hernandez or Justin Verlander in a 1 for 1 for Montero is ridiculous. It’d have to be Montero as the crown jewel with some other pieces making the deal sweeter, not quite Banuelos or Betances level however. I’m just saying the Yankees won’t trade him straight up for a #3-5 guy. The only way I could see him going is if a bona fide ace was put on the block and the Yankees were willing to put together a package.

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   T.O. Chris Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 10:10 pm

   Make no mistake, if Felix were to be traded it would take Montero, Banuelos, Betances and some.

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   G Reply:
   June 13th, 2011 at 12:06 am

   I don’t even think the Mariners would accept THAT trade, that guy is a freaking God among men. He has a 3.29 ERA this season and that’s considered a rocky start for him! Jesus…

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   T.O. Chris Reply:
   June 13th, 2011 at 12:45 am

   It would start with those 3, I added the and some because I don’t know what else they would be into. We have a system to get it done it they were in the mood, they just aren’t in the mood. I don’t expect they will be.

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   G Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 9:54 pm

   Agreed.

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9. Phil says:

   June 12, 2011 at 8:34 pm

   They’d be nuts to trade their best hitting prospect since Mantle.

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   T.O. Chris Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 8:41 pm

   Not if you can get primo pitching back. This league has become dominated by great pitching again, they have become much more precious than hitters at this point. If you can get a Brett Anderson, Felix Hernandez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson (maybe not with shoulder injuries in back to back seasons), Verlander, Cole Hamels or Clayton Kershaw without having to throw in the farm you do it. A trade for a pitcher like that gives the Yankees another dominant arm, and with it a chance to win the world Series this year and beyond. That said, none of those pitchers will be available, and because of that I wouldn’t trade him for any pitcher I see being available.

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   G Reply:
   June 12th, 2011 at 9:57 pm

   Exactly my logic, nice to see we’re on the same page here.

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   RobM Reply:
   June 13th, 2011 at 4:12 am

   Of course, the counter-argument to that is if pitching is now taking over, then dominant hitting prospects should be worth more because they are a scarce commodity.

   Are we back to the 1970s where a 3.50 ERA pitcher is on the bubble? :-) Okay, not quite, but we may be heading toward a situation where top hitters will now be valued to an even higher degree than they have been in the most recent past.

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10. Steve S. says:

    June 12, 2011 at 8:49 pm

    Weak, weak balk call there. How do you call that in that spot?

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11. Steve S. says:

    June 12, 2011 at 9:34 pm

    Check out the new updates folks, there seems to be a discrepancy here.

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    T.O. Chris Reply:
    June 12th, 2011 at 9:51 pm

    I kind of got the feeling last year when he had to be “read the riot act”, and then took off from there that he might be a little bit of a primadonna. I don’t know the kid from Adam, I’m not passing judgement. But maybe this is some kind of discipline thing. One of the things that helped foster the Hanley Ramirez tradeable was his huge ego, he pissed a lot of minor league teammates off who went on to be staples on that team now. We can’t know one way or the other because we don’t know him, but you can bet the Yankees do.

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    G Reply:
    June 12th, 2011 at 10:02 pm

    I’ve followed him very closely for a while, and I genuinely don’t think that’s the case. He’s always seemed to be somewhat humble and at very least knows his place.

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    G Reply:
    June 12th, 2011 at 9:58 pm

    I knew it. *feels like smart ass* hahahaha

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12. G says:

    June 12, 2011 at 10:00 pm

    And hey Steve, question: assuming he doesn’t get traded, what do you think the odds are the Yankees make Montero the starting catcher in a month or so, move Romine up to AAA, then shift Jesus to DH and Austin to C for 2012?

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    Steve S. Reply:
    June 13th, 2011 at 6:59 am

    This illustrates why I’ve always felt he’ll be traded at some point. They have a logjam at the position, and needs elsewhere.

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    Moshe Mandel Reply:
    June 13th, 2011 at 11:09 am

    They also have a big need in the lineup, being that they are aging all over the place. If you look at him purely as a hitter, he fits a major hole going forward. I’d be very, very slow to trade him.

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13. Butzilla says:

    June 13, 2011 at 3:40 am

    fyi, Brett Anderson may get shut down for the rest of the season. Dr. James Andrews is evaluating him tomorrow, usually not a good sign. However, your point stands, Jesus Montero for a legit #2/#3 starter could make for a win/win deal. Just speculating, but MLB Rumors mentioned the SF Giants are interested in Montero. They were shopping Jonathan Sanchez for Jose Reyes earlier in the season [obviously, the Mets didn't bite]. Do you think the Yankees would do a Montero for Sanchez deal?

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    G Reply:
    June 13th, 2011 at 4:08 am

    That’s an interesting one… he is a lefty and is good for an ERA in the mid 3s….

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    RobM Reply:
    June 13th, 2011 at 4:22 am

    It’s intersting, but no F’ing way. Sanchez is 28 and after six seasons in the NL West and a good pitchers’ park has an ERA of 4.20. Do you know what that will translate to in the AL East at Yankee Stadium? AAA!

    Seriously, this is the whole issue of the discussion. Montero is totally unproven, but we know he’s been rated as high as the #3 prospect in all of baseball even though he doesn’t have a clear position. That’s how good his bat is viewed by scouts. Montero is a top-flight hitting prospect who the Yankees have discussed trading for Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee.

    Sanchez has zippo command and will be slaughtered in the American League. The Yankees are not going to trade one of the top hitting prospects for him.

    Montero needs to be packaged with other high-end prospects for a quality MLB pitcher. Not Sanchez. That’s a deal that will haunt the Yankees for a decade to come.

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    RobM Reply:
    June 13th, 2011 at 4:29 am

    I’ve got to add in a point here. Why is it that the Yankees are always looking at NL pitchers? It’s because they some how believe that their ERA’s translate to the AL. They don’t.

    Here’s a good rule of thumb. Add at a MINIMUM, .75 runs to any NL ERA coming to the Yankees. That’s the minimum. It might be over a full run. Ian Kennedy? There is no way he can pitch to an ERA of less than 4.75 if he came back to the Yankees. It goes way beyond the DH. The depth in AL lineups is far superior.

    Stop trading for NL pitchers unless they are of the Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee level, since both have already shown they can handle the AL. Sanchez? Please!!!! He’s not worthy.

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    Steve S. Reply:
    June 13th, 2011 at 7:07 am

    I’ve long felt the Giants are a good fit for both teams. They need a Catcher for this year, need offense, and if you think Montero’s eventual home is at 1B as most outside observers do, they currently have Aubrey Huff playing 1B (signed through 2012) who’s been horrendous this year.

    From the Yankee perspective, the Giants have loads of young pitching. I’d prefer to sweeten the pot and try to get Bumgarner rather than Sanchez. If it’s Sanchez for Montero straight up, I might want the Giants to sweeten the pot. Sanchez has taken big strides the past 3 years, but still walks too many. But his H/9 and SO/9 rates are sensational.

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14. oldpep says:

    June 13, 2011 at 12:48 pm

    I strongly disagree that pitchers have more value than hitters. Watching the game over the years, it’s funny how commentators go from one side to the other regarding the merits of each. In the 60′s (for example) trading a good hitter for a good pitcher was scoffed at.
    As I see it, too many things can go wrong with pitchers to make trading for one by sending a hitter of equal value a sensible thing to do.
    Having a hitter of Montero’s supposed value-even if he’s a full time DH-is more likely to produce wins than a pitcher.
    As far as Cashman being so eager to trade him, he’s always valued pitchers over hitters. (Most notably, Mendoza over Edmonds and Moose over Manny.)

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15. G says:

    June 13, 2011 at 11:00 pm

    Montero was back in the SWB lineup tonight, went 2 for 4 with a 3 run home run. Looks like it might’ve been similar to Martin’s day off up in New York today, just realized he wasn’t quite ready and took another day.

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16. G says:

    June 14, 2011 at 12:50 am

    And with Martin’s back still ailing and Cervelli sucking it up I’m wondering if they won’t call him up soon. His offense has been in a slump, until today (2 for 4, HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB), but there’s simply no way it could be worse than Cervelli’s, and Frankie’s defense has been atrocious as well, so forget the argument of his offense being bad. The intention might be to make sure Martin heals fully, or it might be to being replacing him with Montero, but the timing seems right. I’m not saying he’ll automatically break out of the slump if they move him up, nor that he has because he had one good day today, but it seems like an ideal time to give him a chance.

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17. G says:

    June 14, 2011 at 9:01 pm

    Thought I’d add something: people can say Montero’s numbers so far are a disappointment, but have you looked at Moustaka’s minor league stats from before he got called up? He was hitting only .287 with an OPS just over .800. You could say the Royals were more desperate than the Yankees, but their 3rd baseman was doing excellently. Don’t rule out a call up for that reason.

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