After handing out two free passes to yesterday, the Yankees lead the AL in intentional walks at 24, with the closest team coming in at 19 walks. This seems like a ridiculous number, so I thought I would take a look at each of those walks and evaluate the decision making as well as examine whether the walk “worked.” This can be an exceedingly complicated issue, so I simplified by evaluating Girardi using a loose standard that should be fairly easy to meet. When was at the peak of his home run launching powers, Tom Tango created a “when to walk Bonds” chart based on run expectancy. I am using that chart to evaluate Joe, so although there may be strategic factors that weigh in favor of a particular IBB, I think they are countered by the fact that none of the hitters in question is actually Barry Bonds. As for evaluating whether a decision worked, I am using simple run expectancy, which is not perfect, but should give us a general idea of how the walks turned out and whether they helped limit the damage or escalated matters. Let’s see where the data takes us. Scroll to the end for a summary.
1) April 10th v. Boston:
3-0 Red Sox, 7th Inning, 2nd and 3rd, 2 outs
walks , then retires
Would you walk Bonds: Tango’s chart rules this a situation where, against Bonds, you would go with your gut. When the Bonds chart gives that suggestion, I will evaluate the circumstances of the walk in more detail. Here, with Logan typically much better against lefties but Gonzalez being the better hitter, I think there is room to debate either perspective, and I would probably deem this IBB acceptable.
Did it work: Yes. The RE in a 2nd and 3rd, two out spot is .626 runs, and Boston got 0.
2) April 29th v. Toronto:
3-1 Blue Jays, 4th Inning, Runner on 2nd, 2 outs
Freddy Garcia walks Jose Bautista, then unintentionally walks , retires Juan Rivera
Would you walk Bonds: Yes. Considering the season Bautista is having, he is actually as close as we are going to get to Bonds. This walk made perfect sense.
Did it work: Yes. Run expectancy was .348, no runs scored.
3) May 3rd v. Detroit:
4-1 Tigers, 5th Inning, 1st and 3rd, 1 out
walks , strikes out Raburn, Peralta grounds out
Would you walk Bonds: No. You face him. Now, in this case, Cabrera has weak hitters behind him so I understand the sentiment, but I am not a huge fan of walking another runner into scoring position, or using the IBB with CC on the hill in general.
Did it work: Yes. No runs scored after a RE of 1.211.
4) May 3rd v. Detroit:
4-2 Tigers, 8th Inning, Runner on 2nd, 1 outs
walks , then retires Inge and Jackson
Would you walk Bonds: With Bonds, you would go with your gut. With Avila, you have to pitch to him. This is a poor walk.
Did it work: Yes. RE of .721, no runs scored.
5) May 4th v. Detroit:
4-0 Tigers, 5th Inning, Runner on 2nd, 1 out
Freddy Garcia walks Miguel Cabrera, retires Martinez and Ordonez.
Would you walk Bonds: You go with your gut. I am fine with Garcia walking Cabrera here, as he had been killing the Yankees and Garcia matches up very poorly with him.
Did it work: Yes. RE of .721 resulted in no runs.
6) May 11th v. KC:
3-2 Royals, 10th Inning, Runner on 2nd, 2 outs
walks , then retires
Would you walk Bonds: Yes. Now, Betemit is obviously not close to Bonds, but with Treanor up next, this is a defensible walk.
Did it work: Yes. RE of .348 resulted in no runs.
7) May 11th v. KC:
Tie game, 11th Inning, 2nd and 3rd, 1 out
walks , allows a sac fly to Hosmer, retires Maier
Would you walk Bonds: No. So why are you walking Melky Cabrera?
Did it work: Sort of. RE is 1.447 and only one run scored, but it was the winning run in extra innings. That said, because it was the top of the inning, limiting the runs and allowing the Yankees a chance to come back is a positive, and RE says the decision worked.
8) May 12th v. KC:
9-4 Royals, 6th Inning, Runner on 2nd, 1 out
Amaury Sanit walks Wilson Betemit, then retires Treanor and Escobar
Would you walk Bonds: You go with your gut. In a 9-4 game, face Wilson Betemit, please.
Did it work: Yes. RE of .721 resulted in no runs.
9) May 13th v. Boston:
5-3 Red Sox, 9th Inning, Runner on 3rd, 1 out
walks Adrian Gonzalez, strikes out Youkilis, walks Ortiz, retires Drew
Would you walk Bonds: No. You have to face Gonzalez there. Otherwise, you create the distinct possibility of escalating a one run inning into something bigger.
Did it work: Yes. RE of .989, no runs scored.
10) May 14th v. Boston:
2-0 Boston, 5th Inning, 2nd and 3rd, 1 out
CC Sabathia walks Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez hits into DP
Would you walk Bonds: No. Again, loading the bases with less than two outs is almost always the wrong idea. Now, I understand the wish to create a DP situation and the left on left matchup, but unless Gonzalez hits into a DP, all you have done is put an extra runner on and traded Pedroia’s at-bat for one by Youkilis, the superior hitter.
Did it work: Yes. RE of 1.447 resulted in no runs.
11) May 15th v. Boston:
5-4 Red Sox, 7th Inning, Runner on 2nd, 1 out
Dave Robertson walks Adrian Gonzalez, Youkilis reaches on an error to score a run, Ortiz strikes out, Drew walks, Lowrie strikes out.
Would you walk Bonds: You go with your gut. This is a tough one, with Gonzalez taking aim at the short porch against a righty. That said, Robertson is tough on lefties, does not get a ton of grounders, and is not the type of pitcher that you want to put free runners on for. This goes on the bad side of the ledger.
Did it work: No. RE of .721 resulted in 1 run.
12) May 17th v. TB:
2-1 Yankees, 6th Inning, Runner on 2nd, 2 outs
walks Matt Joyce. Robertson enters to strike out Upton and Kotchman
Would you walk Bonds: Yes, you walk Bonds, and I agree with walking Joyce, who has been incredibly hot all year, and destroys righties.
Did it work: Yes. RE of .348 and no runs scored.
13) May 18th v. Baltimore:
Tie Game, 11th Inning, Runner on 2nd, 1 out
Luis Ayala walked , Guerrero singled, Logan entered to retire Scott and Weiters
Would you walk Bonds: Yes, you would absolutely walk Bonds. As for Markakis, I understand playing matchups here, and the extra run on first base is irrelevant with the winning run at 2nd. This is fine.
Did it work: Yes. RE of .721, no runs scored.
14) May 18th v. Baltimore:
Tie Game, 13th Inning, Runner on 2nd, 2 outs
walks JJ Hardy, retires
Would you walk Bonds: Yes. Again, playing matchups with two outs to get to the struggling Reynolds was fine.
Did it work: Yes. RE of .348, no runs scored.
15) May 23th v. Toronto:
Tie Game, 6th Inning, Runner on 2nd, 0 outs
walks Jose Bautista, chaos ensues (see below), 5 runs score
Would you walk Bonds: No. I know is next, but an IBB with no outs is asking for a big inning. Which is what they got.
Did it work: No. 5 runs after a RE of 1.170.
16) May 23th v. Toronto:
Tie Game, 6th Inning, 2nd and 3rd, 1 out
Bartolo Colon walks Juan Rivera, then a single, walk, and double result in 5 runs
Would you walk Bonds: No. So how do you walk Rivera as your second IBB of the inning? Terrible managing here.
Did it work: No. RE of 1.447, 5 runs scored.
17) May 28th v. Seattle:
Tie Game, 12th Inning, 2nd and 3rd, 1 out
walks , singles to win game
Would you walk Bonds: No. And with Mo on the hill, why are you walking anybody?
Did it work: Hard to tell. RE was 1.447, but obviously runs were capped at one in this walk-off situation. With Mo pitching, I’ll say it did not work, but let’s leave this out of the RE analysis.
18) June 3rd v. LAA:
3-2 Angels, 7th Inning, Runner on 2nd, 1 out
David Robertson walks , grounds into DP
Would you walk Bonds: You go with the gut. I do not love this walk, especially with a walk machine on the mound.
Did it work: Yes. RE of .721, no runs scored.
19) June 3rd v. LAA:
3-2 Angels, 8th Inning, Runner on 2nd, 1 out
Luis Ayala walks , Mathis and Izturis get out around a Bourjos HBP
Would you walk Bonds: You go with the gut. Walking Mark Trumbo intentionally? No thank you.
Did it work: Yes. RE of .721, no runs scored.
20) June 5th v. LAA:
Tie Game, 3rd Inning, Runner on 2nd, 2 outs
Bartolo Colon walks Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter grounds out
Would you walk Bonds: Yes. I’m not quite so sure you walk Abreu to set up the matchup, though.
Did it work: Yes. RE of .348, no runs scored.
21) June 7th v. BOS:
4-1 Red Sox, 2nd Inning, 2nd and 3rd, 2 outs
Freddy Garcia walks Adrian Gonzalez, Luis Ayala enters to retire Youkilis
Would you walk Bonds: You go with your gut. In this spot, there is no way I would let Gonzalez face a righty. Fine walk.
Did it work: Yes. RE of .626, no runs scored.
22) June 8th v. Bos:
Tie Game, 4th Inning, 2nd and 3rd, 1 out
AJ Burnett walks JD Drew, Varitek grounds out to score a run, Ellsbury and Pedroia reach to score two more.
Would you walk Bonds: No. And loading the bases for Burnett, even with Varitek coming up, is not a great idea.
Did it work: No. RE of 1.447, 3 runs scored.
23) June 16th v. Texas:
Tie Game, 5th Inning, 2nd and 3rd, 1 out
walks Josh Hamilton, Young pops out, Beltre is HBP to force a run, Moreland flies out.
Would you walk Bonds: No. That said, this is one situation where I am going to deviate from the chart and say that Gordon matched up poorly stuff-wise with Hamilton and had pretty good control, which makes a walk less of an issue. I was fine with this walk.
Did it work: Yes. RE of 1.447, one run scored.
24) June 16th v. Texas:
Tie Game, 7th Inning, Runner on 2nd, 0 outs
Hector Noesi walks Josh Hamilton, Young hits into DP, Beltre flies out
Would you walk Bonds: No. Putting an extra runner on against the Texas offense with nobody out? No thanks.
Did it work: Yes. RE of 1.170, no runs scored.
Summary:
Most Walked Batters
Adrian Gonzalez: 3
Miguel Cabrera: 3
Jose Bautista: 2
Josh Hamilton: 2
Dustin Pedroia: 2
Wilson Betemit: 2
Bobby Abreu: 2
Judging the Decision-Making
Reasonable IBB: 10
Poor IBB: 14
The Results
IBB that worked: 19
IBB that did not: 4
(one is unclear due to it being a walk-off)
Total RE v. actual performance tally (only counting the inning in Toronto that contained two IBB one time, excluding the walk-off game):
Total expected runs: 16.92
Total runs: 11 runs
While this total is likely skewed by the Toronto game, Girardi did bring that upon himself with two very poor intentional walks in the span of 3 batters. Still, even considering that game, Joe has outperformed the RE of the situations in which he has used the IBB by almost 6 runs, despite the fact that an IBB adds a baserunner and therefore actually raises the run expectancy. That is a pretty startling number, and it either represents a whole lot of luck, or suggests that Joe does a good job evaluating the context of the situations in which he employs the IBB, or a mixture of the two.
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Wow, good job! Interesting stuff.
Excellently done, Moshe.
Just to clarify what I did here:
There are two things at issue: whether the decision was the right one, and whether it worked out in terms of suppressing the number of runs scored. The proper way to calculate the former is to determine run expectancy before and after the walk, while adjusting for quality of the hitter, the subsequent hitter, and the pitcher. That sort of analysis is beyond my capabilities at this point, so I used a proxy in the form of the Bonds chart. Basically, the Bonds chart tells you what you would generally do if the hitter was Barry Bonds. If you go through each IBB, you’ll see that I used that as a baseline and then adjusted as necessary.
As for whether the moves worked out, that is pretty simple. It is RE before the bunt compared to actual runs.
I didnt like the colon walks at the time and I hated the mo walk otherwise I think giardi has been alright in this dept.
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