This Friday — weather permitting that is — I’ll be at New Britain Stadium watching the Rock Cats (Twins minor league affiliate) host the AA Trenton Thunder. As an added bonus, will be taking the mound for Trenton in his next rehab start. Assuming the game is played and he is still on track to participate, I’ll certainly write up my thoughts on his performance afterwards. In the meantime though, I wanted to take a few moments to discuss what I think the expectations are for Phil at this point, and what they perhaps realistically should be.
For many of us, it’s hard not to have lofty expectations of a home grown kid who’s shown flashes of legitimate potential. That’s why one can certainly bet that there’s a decent portion of Yankees fans who are eagerly anticipating the return of the 2010 first-half-of-the-season Phil Franchise. During that timeframe, he pitched to a 3.65 ERA over 101 innings. Moreover, he was able to post a solid SO/9 ratio (8.1) while holding opposing batters to a modest .239/.291/.377 triple slash. It was this type of production that got many of us believing the Yankees had a top-of-the-rotation caliber arm that we could look forward to watching for years to come (on the cheap no less). In this romanticized version, Hughes’ return would instantly make the rotation substantially more threatening (especially if Colon can return to form as well). Granted that would be two big “Ifs.” On the other hand, given the initial question marks surrounding the rotation this season, this would signal a massive lift for the Yanks that would come at no cost.
Now I suspect there’s an equally large portion of Yankeeland that remembers the not-so-pretty second half of 2010 and the abysmal start to 2011. You know; that ugly period when Phil’s 7-6 record was highlighted by a 4.90 ERA over 75.1 innings pitched, along with a very mediocre 6.6 SO/9 rate — not to mention the fly ball tendencies which helped contribute to some very crooked HR splits. Then there was that aggravating problem regarding the seemingly nonexistent get-the-guy-out-already-third-strike pitch. Even if Hughes’ velocity volatility is no longer a discussion point, has anything else really changed? Does he have that third pitch or can we still expect to see inflated pitch counts by the fifth inning? If he comes back and essentially acts as the pitcher from the second half of last year, the Yankees basically have another back of rotation type of arm which helps to some degree in terms of depth but really inspires very little confidence against offenses with a bit of patience.
So where do we stand; my guess is about as good as yours. I’d imagine though that his performance at the big league stage will reside somewhere in the middle of the two possibilities noted above (assuming he’s actually healthy). He’ll likely be more effective than , Sergio Garcia, and , but then again, most pitchers with his pedigree are. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect a Cy Young caliber player going forward (or even necessarily a number two type of pitcher) though — at least this season (sorry MJR).
The “Return of the Velocity” title makes for a compelling story but that’s really only half the battle. A true out pitch will still be required, and the reliance he placed upon the cutter earlier this season still needs to be addressed. Honestly, if Hughes were to produce stats comparable to a guy like for the remainder of the year (4.47 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 3.37 xFIP, 7.58 SO/9, 3.12 BB/9), I think that would have to be deemed a success – especially given the fact that Jackson is a perfectly viable trade target for the Yanks. Numbers like his are not particularly glamorous, but they are definitely useful. Similarly, it would go a long way in restoring confidence in his abilities going forward. Needless to say, I’m anxiously awaiting his next rehab start.
What do you expect for the remainder of the year from Phil? What do you expect for the long term?
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I’m not going to write about my expectations of what Hughes will do if returns to the rotation this year because they would be colored either by my hopes of what he could do or my fears of his failure.
What I do want to say falls completely in the realm of unsubstantiated impressions and is completely non-scientific. My main impression of Hughes during the second half of 2010 was that he was being stubborn on the mound. He would not change from what he thought created his success early in the season. He stayed with the same pitches and approach. Except maybe he tried to finesse his way through hitters. Did the innings catch up with him? Possibly. But I think it was more his mental attitude and approach. In conclusion, this isn’t an analysis, it’s an impression.
What will happen next? Who knows, only time will tell.
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Matt Warden Reply:
June 23rd, 2011 at 2:30 pm
Heh, don’t hold back Phil. That’s part of my point in writing the article. We have a lot of preconcieved notions of what Phil should be because we’ve seen such polarized results. I’m curious as to whether most fans have soured on him at this juncture.
I definitely believe innings caught up with him last year. That said, he often looked predictable during the second half. His heavy reliance on his fastball also led to a lot of LONG at bats.
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Going into this season, I didn’t think Phil was going to have a good year. His 2nd half last year was bad – he has only 2 really viable pitches and one of them, the cutter, isn’t that great (when it’s hit hard, it’s launched into outer space). His curve has deteriorated to a large degree and he’s never committed to using the change. Assuming he’s now healthy (big assumption), I see no reason why he won’t perform as I expected. He’ll put up some good performances and he’ll also get smoked – IMO, he’s like a younger AJ except he doesn’t throw nearly as hard as AJ did. I’m still glad that he’s on his way back, but I think it’s fantasy to expect him to perform like he did in the first half of last year, when teams hadn’t adjusted to him.
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Matt Warden Reply:
June 23rd, 2011 at 2:35 pm
Heh, I wouldn’t have thought to compare him to a young AJ. I guess it makes sense though given that he really has only two big league pitches. Still, I have to believe he has the capacity to be more effective than what we saw in the second half of last year. I wouldn’t count on an ace anymore, but I want a legitimate #3. If he’s honestly healthy (big if), I don’t see why that’s out of the realm of possibility. A #3 pitcher isn’t useless either, there’s plenty of value in that; it’s just anti-climatic given all the big name trades he’s been associated with.
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Steve Reply:
June 23rd, 2011 at 6:16 pm
Unfortunately, I agree – future ace is not his destiny. Even to be a #3, he has to develop more than his FB/Cutter. I’d love it if he ditched the cutter and developed a 2 seamer.
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For the rest of this season, I could live with the Edwin Jackson numbers. That would at least allow us to be confident that he has overcome whatever the arm issues were early and that kind of performance would be more valuable as a 4th-5th starter than what Nova and Garcia are providing.
Long term, though, I’m still expecting to see a #2 starter, #3 at worst from Hughes. He’s shown the flashes of brilliance that make it seem like a realistic possibility, and with all the hype surrounding him, the time the Yankees have put into him, and the confidence they’ve shown in making him the biggest organizational pitching prospect in years, I think that should be expected. Teams don’t invest this much in a guy to have him be a back end of the rotation piece.
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I never saw him in the minors so I don’t know what it was that he showed that made him such a top prospect, but things just haven’t turned out and I think at best we can expect him to be a middle of the rotation starter.
That said, If Phil puts up a near 5 ERA for the remainder of the year, then the Yankees need to just put him in the pen because that would be brutal.
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Matt Warden Reply:
June 23rd, 2011 at 2:37 pm
In the minors, he had good command and velocity. He was had three plus pitches (2/4 seam fastball, curveball) I believe.
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Steve Reply:
June 23rd, 2011 at 6:17 pm
Hi Matt
Thanks – that was a long time ago and youngsters don’t always develop as we hope.
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Phil, I agree…..I think he’s afraid to leave his comfort zone, period. He should have used his change at the beginning of 2010, when he was happy with it coming out of ST. Not all the time, but just enough. Instead, he got obsessed with his FB and cutter……He’s kind of got the mentality of a reliever, to be honest.
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I think there’s a good chance that Hughes could return to the pen. Three reasons:
– If Colon recovers like he was, the Yanks have 5 good starters
– Joba is out for the season
– Hughes was arguably the best reliever in baseball in 2009
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Matt Warden Reply:
June 23rd, 2011 at 2:44 pm
I don’t believe the Yanks have any intention of sending him to the BP. If he ends up being there, that’s probably indicative of larger problems (i.e. – health is not 100%, production is lacking).
His time in the BP during 2009 was definitely excellent (which is what you would expect of a starting pitcher placed in a relief role). That said, it’d be a huge disappointment to see him end up there given how much upside he had coming up through the minors.
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Matt,
I think the Edwin Jackson comp is a very interesting one, and frankly, one Yankee fans should be pretty ecstatic about if Hughes were able to recover that well. Jackson is essentially Hughes with slightly more walks, less home runs and more grounders.
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Matt Warden Reply:
June 23rd, 2011 at 3:34 pm
Thanks Lar — that’s kind of what I thought when I was looking for an example. Another comparison that I contemplated was Clay Billingsley.
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I think it depends on his willingness to throw his change often enough to make it a viable option. With it he can become a very good pitcher. Without it, he won’t.
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I expect decency. And going forward I do expect him to develop a thirf pitch. I expect this year to see decent #3. a high 3s fip.
Goin g forward im relatively bullish. Mid 3s fip high 7 to 8 k/9.
I sometimes wonder if hughes should learn a split. As a former pitcher I feel its the easiest breaking pitch to master. Arm slot and speed are the same.
Stresses the elbow but llife is risk
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He is not the pitcher we saw when he came up. That pitcher had a great seemingly 12-6 curve ball. Then suddenly, he didn’t. It was like when we saw Joba throwing 92 instead of 97 and without the biting slider. No reason why, just sort of puzzling, but you knew you weren’t watching the same pitcher as he was previously. Then, just as suddenly it seemed, Joba’s velocity returned. Maybe Hughes’ old curve ball can return too …. but if not, I don’t think he is ever going to amount to more than a solid #3. Not bad, but not what we had hoped for.
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[...] it’s surely heading there. Likewise, there is also that much more pressure on Phil Hughes to fulfill all of our expectations. Be sure to click here to read the rest of the free agents in Matt’s [...]
There’s two sides to Phil’s basic equation, as I see it. Arm strength/tone and mental tone.
In early 2010, Phil’s fastball had a killer rise that showed in the last 15 feet, too late for the hitter to adjust. His cutter probably had a similar bite (so small and late a break that a viewer, other than the pitcher himself, can’t really tell – except with Mo).
Innings pitched caught up with young Phil by midsummer, and both were flat. His response was to try harder, throw harder, thus the shoulder strain. No big news, but the point is that he has to let his muscles grow into the load. Pitching requires both strength and flexibility, getting the whip action.
I don’t expect Phil to return to glory immediately. I think he should focus his effort on developing repertoire and command, rather than reaching for velocity. Perfect the curve. The 2-seam and changeup would make him a trickier pitcher at every stage. The Yankees will just have to wait for nature to take its course, and should counsel him to take it easy.
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smurfy Reply:
June 25th, 2011 at 10:57 am
Steve’s suggestion of a 2-seamer, especially, sounds like a good idea.
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