This post originated from a longish comment that I posted on River Ave Blues last night, on one of the several posts about Jesus Montero. My aim with this post is to reply to some of the arguments that have been made for calling Jesus Montero up immediately. I will address each of those arguments individually (with a little less snark and fewer rhetorical questions than I used in the RAB comment), and hopefully provide a legitimate argument for keeping Jesus Montero in AAA in the short-term.
1. He is a better option as backup catcher than Francisco Cervelli, and a superior alternative to Jorge Posada at DH.
I don’t necessarily dispute this point, and neither did Brian Cashman (with regard to Cervelli, that is). However, just because Montero is a better option doesn’t mean that he is the right option. I agree that Cervelli and Posada have been terrible this season (though Posada has turned it on of late), and the Yankees could use some improvement in both positions. However, calling up Montero to serve as a backup catcher/part-time DH rather than letting him play every day at catcher in AAA strikes me as a short-sighted decision. If the Yankees truly believe that Montero is the everyday catcher of the future, but his defense isn’t ready, I have no problem with them keeping him in AAA to hone his and get more reps. I also don’t see Montero being a particularly useful backup catcher if he is going to be a huge liability behind the plate. Cervelli may suck at throwing right now, but we have seen him be capable of better, and there is more to catching than just throwing out basestealers.
In the RAB comment, I compared calling up Montero to calling up Manny Banuelos to pitch out of the bullpen now. While I realize it is not an exact comparison, I believe my main point still holds. Both players are likely improvements over present members of the major league roster, but calling them up to use them in a role different from their anticipated future role may retard their development, and may not be in the long-term best interest of the organization. If the Yankees are desperate to replace Posada or Cervelli, there are other adequate avenues that don’t involve prematurely calling up a top prospect. They can acquire another backup catcher or bat on the trade market, and with their ability to take on salary, there should be some willing sellers. I would love to see Cervelli thrown in the woodchipper as much as the rest of you, but I don’t think Montero is the best option.
2. Montero’s bat is major league ready.
Yes, he put up strong numbers in 2010, especially in the second half of the season. And yes, I do believe those numbers are more indicative of his true talent level than his uninspiring performance thus far in 2011. However, I am not willing to give Montero a pass in 2011 based on his 2010 performance. Perhaps his weaker performance has a tangible cause, such as AAA pitchers adjusting to a newfound weakness, a flaw in his swing, or a change in approach (getting overly pull/homer happy or impatient). I have no idea whether this is the case, but it is plausible that his struggles have a real cause that major league pitchers could exploit. Until Montero gets his bat going again to the level we know he is capable of, I will not be convinced that he is major league ready.
3. Montero is underperforming because he is “bored”
I believe that Montero may very well be frustrated at being stuck in AAA after a strong finish to the season in 2010 (and comments by Butch Wynegar in Andrew Marchand’s recent piece support that claim). However, I don’t believe that boredom is a sufficient excuse for Montero’s performance this year, as it may be glossing over larger problems. However, if Montero’s boredom is impacting his performance so drastically, I am entirely unsympathetic. To me, this would be a sign that Montero may still have some growing up to do, and this immaturity may hold him back from reaching his full potential unless the problem is nipped in the bud. I realize he is just 21, but I don’t object to the organization showing the golden boy some tough love, and a callup could be viewed as rewarding Montero’s underachieving. Plus, if he is bored playing every day in the minors, who is to say he won’t be bored as a part-time player in the majors as well?
4. Jorge Posada came up as a backup, and he turned out all right.
Posada is definitely an interesting example here, but there are some significant differences. The main one is age. Posada’s first significant stint in the majors was in 1997, when he was 25, and had spent the better part of 3 seasons in AAA. I think at that point it is reasonable to say that Posada did not have much left to learn in the minor leagues, and was mature enough to handle the transition to the majors. However, at 21 with an uneven 2010 and an unimpressive 2011 as his AAA experience, it is certainly possible that Montero has more to learn before he is truly ready for the bigs.
These are just some thoughts, but I will admit that I am making a few assumptions. I am assuming primarily that the Yankee organization does see Montero’s future in pinstripes, and as a catcher. I don’t object to Montero being called up this season, but I would like to see him hit at the level he is capable of in AAA, show a willingness to keep working hard, and (if he is going to catch) make strides on defense. I would also like to see him show some maturity. I don’t need Montero to become a rah-rah fistpumpy kind of guy to show that he is emotionally ready for the bigs, but I don’t want to hear that he is being benched for a lack of energy or focus (as the Marchand article mentioned).
This may all be academic though. Barring injury, I see no way that Montero is not up in the major leagues by the time the rosters expand in September, and possibly earlier should Posada or Cervelli sustain an injury. I don’t think calling up Montero is necessary for the Yankees to make the playoffs this year, so the organization may be best-served by letting him continue to polish his game in the minors until he is ready to be a major league catcher. Calling him up now may marginally improve the team in the short-term (though I am uncertain based on Montero’s current performance that even this is necessarily true), but with a talent of Montero’s caliber, we really need to think long-term, even with a win-always organization like the Yankees.
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It’s ‘kerfluffle,’ you idiot! (yust yoking, Eric)
I agree with every point, except throwing Frankie in the woodchipper, or replacing Jorge – he’s hot as a just-fired pistol!
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Eric Schultz Reply:
June 24th, 2011 at 6:36 pm
True, good point on Posada. Added that in.
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Good stuff Eric, I would only add that I don’t gloss over these questions of work ethic as some others do. It can be a vital component of reaching one’s ceiling, and this is Montero’s 2nd (known) incident in that regard.
Ideally, the prospect’s performance should dictate when he is promoted. But promotions to fill a glaring need on the team are done all the time. If you need someone to pitch this week and prospect X still needs to develop his changeup, well he’ll just have to do it at the big league level. Prospects come up and fail miserably all the time, and that doesn’t mean thyre ruined. Remember Alfonso Soriano’s first year? Melky’s adventure in Boston? Hughes was lousy his first full season as a starter, and didn’t really figure it out until he spent 0C in the bullpen.
There’s an old saying about prospects who fail and get sent back down to the minors “the. Good ones will find their way back”. Mickey Mantle was brought up too soon, failed and was demoted, and we all know what happened next. I’d caution folks to not think there is one way to do these things, or one outcome that is acceptable. Unlocking a prospects potential can vary individually, so I have trouble blaming a team if they fail. Ultimately, its up to the player himself, and no one can make the adjustments for him. Its his life, and his career.
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Im not going nuts but one thing I disagree with is the idea that being a backup significantly stunts his development. It has been done thousands of times and was literally sop for ages.
Because cervelli can be sent dowm there is little harm in doing this. If he fails he goes back to swb.
Oh, and cervelli hasn’t thrown anyone out in a year and a half.
I just dont see the harm. Presumably next year montero is on the team. In which case how much does 30 xtra games cing in aaa help
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Let me repeat something I wrote about the Montero situation on RAB the other day. One of the best reasons not to bring up Montero is that if the yankee brain trust doesn’t really think Montero will be an adequate defensive ML catcher, then you don’t want to expose his deficiencies with an early call up. If he’s being considered a prime trade chip – which is what I believe, all protestations to the contrary – his value is highest as a top AAA hitter. Bring him up now and if he hits .190 with 10 passed balls in the next month, his value as a trade deadline chip to pick up a star player is great diminished. Leave him at AAA. The “he’s bored” argument is silly.
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Eric Schultz Reply:
June 25th, 2011 at 12:48 am
Great point. Jay Jaffe had a nice post on that subject today Pinstriped Bible. http://www.pinstripedbible.com/2011/06/24/prospects-and-the-value-of-uncertainty/
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What is with all the “call him up or trade him” articles all over the place? I assume that part of the idea for this piece comes from these posts. I have read so many lately with the main messaging being “do something”. It doesn’t make sense any sense to me, why paint yourself into a corner when no “decision” date is set? Why trade him when you want him just because he won’t play right now? Why force him into the big leagues when he isn’t ready, but will be? People are talking like Montero is 24 and coming up on being a bust if he isn’t given a chance. Even if he has to wait for September to get his first taste of the big leagues, and isn’t a major contributor until next year can anything bad come from that?
So many fans and writers have built this kid up to the point where I don’t think he will ever be able to live up to the hype. Now they want him thrown right into the starting lineup, because they have decided he is ready, and he’s so ready he is struggling in AAA because he’s bored. It’s gotten to the point where people expect Montero to come up and be Miguel Cabrera. That simply isn’t going to happen, and while he’s making adjustments to better pitchers he may also be embarrassing himself behind the plate. From what I read, and have seen on limited appearances, Montero can throw better than Frankie, but he is probably worse at blocking pitches. He’s definitely worse at calling a game and framing pitches. I think he is destined to struggle from the start. He will be playing the most demanding position mentally on the field, and he will have to adjust to a whole new level of pitching. Let’s not forget Matt Wieters was much further along in his development when he came up, with expectations of being the best catcher in the league. We are still waiting for that bat to develop, and Montero will likely never be that good defensively.
Honestly I think the best thing for him is to wait on major action until next season. Get a callup at the end of the year, but allowed two full years of AAA seasoning. They can decide then what to do with him and Martin, you could keep both and have them split time, or trade one. If you are going to make a trade for either one you will get more for them in the off-season. More pitchers will be available for trade then, and more teams will be interested in adding a bat then.
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