Given how much speculation surrounds the Yankee rotation as it currently stands, it’s no surprise that next season poses an even bigger mystery. Sure Garcia, Colon, and Nova have brilliantly (albeit surprisingly) “held down the fort” this year and have simultaneously made Cashman look like a genius. That said, I don’t think anyone is counting on them as mainstay fixtures in the rotation for the long hall – at least not all of them. Is it too soon to be thinking about this? Perhaps. Will I go there anyway? Absolutely.
Conveniently, Matthew Pouliot of Hardball Talk was also thinking about the future and compiled a rather extensive list of free agents in 2012. Of all the players listed, there’s really just eight pitchers, who for all intents and purposes, are worth talking about: , , , , , , C.J. Willson, and .
Right off the bat, you can scratch a couple names off the list. The Cardinals’ is a tremendously talented pitcher who also happens to be fairly young (30). Although he’s coming off of TJ surgery, there’s absolutely no reason to think that St. Louis won’t pick up his options. If I had to guess, I’d say his chances of wearing pinstripes are about as slim as mine at this point.
An even more obvious name to dismiss has to be . Let me steal a page out of the Dennis Green handbook “On Freaking Out – A Guide to Feeding the Press Priceless Quotes,” and say CC is who we thought he was. The Yankees will have substantially larger problems on their hands if they fail to resign him should he elect to opt out. Besides, I believe the conversation isn’t about replacing the ace of the staff anyway; but rather, it is a discussion about adding support behind him.
In about the time it took the Yankees to finish taking 2-3 against the Cubs, the NY Brass made it pretty clear that there was no interest in a crazy person Carlos Zimbrano. A day later, the Yankees front office stated that there was “no likely scenario” in which they’d pursue another member of the Cubs organization and Matt’s list, . Personally, I’m not in love with his long ball tendencies or notable platoon splits anyway. More importantly, he has a $14M player option for 2012 which is always risky business for a team (just ask Randy Levine and ).
, , and are also all equally unlikely candidates in my eyes. Oswalt (34) has been enduring some serious back problems this season. While his 2011 BB/9 rate (2.3) is about in line with his career average (2.1), his SO/9 rate (5.3) has fallen precipitously from his career norm (7.4). While he arguably still has some “stuff left in the tank,” I’m not sure how enamored NY is with the price tag given the uncertainty of his health. This of course, also assumes Philadelphia has reason to let him go in the first place. They hold a $16M option for him in 2012 and are still currently in contention right now and look to be for another couple years.
Buehrle is expensive, has a no trade clause, and has openly admitted that NY would probably not be an ideal destination for him. I think the feeling is somewhat mutual for the Yankees too as he’s expensive and has certainly entered his decline years. The Chicago-ace-in-name-but-not-so-much-in-reality has an almost nonexistent strikeout ratio, and his ground ball rates are heading the wrong direction — two qualities that don’t particularly bode well for NY’s hitter friendly ballpark.
At age 36, Chris Carpenter is still capable of producing quality. Then again, his $15M team option in 2012 isn’t cheap. Plus, if he pitches well throughout the second half of this season and the Cards are still in contention, I’d have to assume they’d keep him — especially given the fact that Wainwright may need some additional recovery time next year. For what it’s also worth, it’s been a long time since Carpenter has pitched in the AL. Back in the day when he was with Toronto, the Big Boy League didn’t treat him too kindly.
That leaves and . Here’s what Matt had to say about both pitchers:
10. Edwin Jackson (28 – White Sox): It’s the free agents that are perceived as having upside that often go for more than anyone expects. Jackson is 52-57 with a 4.60 ERA in his career, but he threw a no-hitter for the Diamondbacks last year and he’s struck out 726 batters in 966 innings as a major leaguer. He was one of the AL’s best starters for three months in 2009, and he was very good down the stretch last season after being traded to the White Sox. Some team is going to pay him and hope that he’ll finally put it together for six months. I think $30 million for three years is the bottom end, with $60 million for five years being a real possibility if he ends up with a sub-4.00 ERA this year.
5. (31 – Rangers): The Rangers lost a left-handed ace to the Phillies last winter, but not without a fight. They’ll wage another war this winter to keep Wilson, who figures to draw interest from the Yankees, Nationals and anyone else willing to spend big money on a top-of-the-rotation left-hander. With a 7-3 record and a 3.17 ERA through 16 starts, Wilson is on pace to put up a line nearly identical to his 2010. I think he’s a pretty big injury risk, so I wouldn’t recommend going big to sign him. However, as things stand now, he’s in line for a five-year, $80 million deal similar to what got from the Red Sox and received from the Yankees.
Obviously, if I had my druthers, I would certainly prefer Wilson. Aside from the fact that his numbers are better in general, he’s also a southpaw which is an added bonus. Regardless, there’s really no pitcher available who qualifies as a “perfect fit” – that is to say, a guy who is seemingly risk free and radiating talent (i.e. ). If the dependency on home grown talent isn’t already at an all-time high; it’s surely heading there. Likewise, there is also that much more pressure on to fulfill all of our expectations. Be sure to click here to read the rest of the free agents in Matt’s article.
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I would love to see C.J. Wilson in Yankee Pinstripes. Having said that I think the chances realistically are less than 50/50. I do think the Rangers will put the full court press on to sign him before FA. I think it will ultimately come down to if C.J. Wilson has enjoyed his time in Arlington and if the Rangers make him a good faith offer. So we will have to see.
Agreed; despite being on the wrong side of 30 I’d like to see the Yankees make a big push for Wilson. People would likely flip out if the Yankees were to sign Wilson to an A.J. Burnett deal, but they’re going to need to upgrade the rotation one way or another — as amazing and unexpected as Colon and Garcia have been, what are the chances they can do anything even remotely close to this for a second straight year? — and you could do worse than spending money on a top-shelf lefty at Yankee Stadium.
I would assume an AJ Burnett type deal is exactly what it would take to bring him in. From what I have read he is the Yankees number one target going into the market, so I expect a full court press.
This is a lot of “ifs,” but we’re not even 1/2 through the season, so why not. CC & AJ continue to perform and Nova continues to improve and Hughes pitchers like a #3 starter, Under those conditions I’d say no to Wilson. Get a 5th starter for a year and await development of either Man Ban or D Bet for 2013. Now, should that scenario not happen (and I admit if may not), then I would go after Wilson.
Honestly at this point the rotation of 2012 will probably look like this if the Yanks don’t do a thing
1. CC Sabathia (probably signs some of sort extension in the form of a new contract or an actual extentsion)
2. AJ Burnett
3. Phil Hughes
4. Ivan Nova
5. Adam Warren/David Phelps/etc.
In all honesty that is a pretty sad rotation. The only upside is that there is a chance that the Yankees will trade for a starting pitcher that may have be a Yankee in 2012. Then you can push down everybody a peg and Nova does not look so bad in the #5 spot. If you look at the results CJ Wilson has been much better than Jackson, however, if you want to play devil’s advocate you could go on.
1. Edwin Jackson is not only younger and entering the prime of his career compared to CJ Wilson who is not only older, but does not have a track of starting.
2. While CJ Wilson looks to put two consecutive 4+ WAR seasons as a starter Edwin Jackson has consistently been between 3-4 hurt by his ERA>FIP and have fairly similar K/BB numbers.
3. The big one is the you could in all likelihood get Jackson for 3 years 30 million compared to five year 80 million.
Looking at all that info I would take Jackson as a safer bet to a net benefit for the team throughout the life of the contract over CJ Wilson.
Depends on what you are looking for honestly. If all you need is a middle to back end of the rotation innings eater you go with Jackson, but if you need someone at the top of the rotation you have to go with CJ. Jackson slots in either above Hughes at 3 or below him at 4 depending largely on what Hughes does the rest of the year, while CJ would go into the season as the number 2.
I like either one. If we are going after Edwin, I would like to trade for him this year. That way he could audition himself for the bigger deal, and that way we would get a good look at him before inking a 3 or 4 year commitment. Wilson would likely be the better pitcher over the life of the contract, the value would come from price and need.
Aren’t we missing the fact that Wilson is a lefty and the Yankees need a lefty, and Jackson isn’t. A lefty pitching many games over a career in Yankees Stadium I have to think is a much better value than a righty. Especially if it’s just a comparison between these 2 pitchers.
Opt out CC
1.Halladay
2.LEE
3.Sabathia
4.Hamels
5.Worley Yeaaa THat would be sick