After starting the season in a miserable slump, ended Sunday’s game batting a respectable .245/.366/.412. While that is far from where many had hoped he would be after nearly half the season, entering Sunday’s game that line translated to a 109 OPS+ and a .342 wOBA. Neither stat is as solid as what Swisher posted last season, but he’s not far from his career numbers of 116 and .356, respectively.
Swisher’s troubles have been due entirely to his lefthanded swing. Entering Sunday’s game he was a .429 righthanded wOBA hitter but only a .307 wOBA hitter lefthanded. He’s been on fire in June, posting a .446 wOBA overall. That means that his lefthanded numbers were worse than a .307 wOBA (which is not good) in April and May.
Moving deeper into his lefthanded swing, it is actually difficult to see what had been bothering Nick earlier in the season and what has changed now. Luck has certainly played a part in it. For his career Swisher has a .283 BABIP lefthanded. Even after his recent success, Nick’s lefthanded BABIP remains only .230 entering Sunday’s game. That’s considerably below his career performance, but it is not so far off pace to explain his entire slow start.
Many of his other lefthanded metrics actually look favorable in 2011. He’s got a career lefthanded walk rate of 11.8%, which is up to 15.9% this season, while his strikeouts are down. For his career his K rate is 27.4% as a lefty but has been only 24.4% this year. As a result, Nick has manged to keep his OBP at a respectable level, both overall and from the left side this season, despite his struggles. His lefty OBP was .330 entering Sunday’s game, which is subpar for a hitter as good at getting on base as Swisher, but respectable overall.
Apart from the slightly reduced lefthanded BABIP, the real culprit that harmed Nick’s April and May was his total lack of lefthanded power. For his career Swisher has a .473 lefthanded SLG, which is better than his righthanded .446 SLG. This season, however, Swisher has a lefty SLG of just .339 versus a righty SLG of .548. Reinforcing this lack of power is his lefthanded home run to fly ball ratio. At 9.1% this season, it is down dramatically from his career rate of 15.8%.
What emerges from this picture is a hitter who kept his plate discipline, but wasn’t able to make left-handed contact as strong as he normally did. His line drive and ground ball rates were all roughly in line with his lefthanded career rates, but more of his hits were dying somewhere in the outfield, when in season’s past many of those flies would have carried for home runs. This would naturally drive down his BABIP and his SLG. But in the absence of an observable, large change, such as a spike in strike out rate or an out sized decrease in BABIP, it was a safe bet that Nick would be able to work through his kinks.
Luckily for the Yankees, it looks like Swisher has turned the corner. When you consider that his wOBA was .295 through the end of May, it is phenomenal that he’s gotten his overall wOBA all the way up to .342 by now. Swisher has pulled it off because he has been one of the best hitters in the game in June. Obviously his current explosion is unsustainable, but even if Swisher settles into his career rates for the remainder of the season he’ll finish the year with something close a .350 wOBA and a 112 OPS+, both of which represent down but productive seasons. More importantly for Swisher and the Yankees, if he has put his troubles behind him for good he’ll be able to help the team in the second half, when the playoff race promises to get interesting.
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Swish has 9 HR and 38 RBI in 76 games. If he hits just one more homerun and drives in just two more runs in the next five games, he’d have 10 HR and 40 RBI through a half-season and be on pace to finish with a nice 20 HR and 80 RBI season.
Which would represent a downgrade in his production from the last two years, but would certainly still be valuable to the Yankees.
If I’m Brian Cashman I’m hoping that Swish hits at at least his career rate from hear onwards, which translates to more like 23 or 24 homers.
That would be a win-win for the Yankees (and only the team). Swisher would still give the team genuine value in the all important second half, but the drop in production would simplify contract talks with him.
Hey I’ll take 3 or 4 more homeruns from Swish :)
His turnaround should quiet the calls for acquiring an OF via trade, and should make the decision easier to pick up his option for next year. Unless a no brainer like Justin Upton becomes available via trade, looking at next year’s FA list I think they pick up the 10 mil option, even if it means they’re overpaying a bit for 1 year. Not picking it up makes him a FA, then you’d have to give him multiple years if you want to bring him back, or any other FA worth signing.
The outfield is fine as it is and the Yankees should definitely pick up Swish’s option for next year.
You also can’t underestimate the role Swish has taken in the dugout and clubhouse for the Yanks. He brings life to this team and I think his personality has brought out the best in the others. I hope they pick up his option!
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