One of the more annoying things about Baseball is fans who approach it with what I call “The Football Mentality”. They think , every game and fail to see the big picture. Baseball is a long grind, and early in the season managers are often testing guys out to see how they respond in various situations. The easiest thing for anyone to do is second guess bullpen decisions, especially after they don’t work. Twitter and the blogosphere was abuzz with geniuses after the fact last night, and most of them in my opinion, were dead wrong. Here’s some of the arguments they offered up-
Dont bring in Soriano there-Huh? Don’t bring your 8th inning guy into…the 8th inning? He has that title for a reason, and that’s because he’s your best option before your Closer. There was nothing in his history suggest he would have such a bad outing. In 336 innings as a reliever, he had NEVER walked 3 batters in an inning . Some went on to argue that he had pitched 2 of the past 3 days so you had to figure he needed some time off, which is simply wrong. He threw 14 pitches on March 31st and 19 pitches on Monday night’s game facing the Twins. So he’s unavailable because he threw less then 20 pitches the day before after having three days off? If I’m a manager, one of the things I want to find out is how a guy responds to working back to back days. Is he better or worse? Does his stuff or location suffer? I’d rather find these things out now in April, than in a pivotal game later in the year. I wouldn’t make up my mind after one bad game, but it is something to stick in the back of your mind. A manager’s job is to put his guys in situations where they’re most likely to be successful. Usage patterns for relievers is a key piece of info.
Let Joba/Robertson start the 8th-Wreaks of second guess, but I will say this does fit into my template for good bullpen management. You always want to have someone better backing up the guy on the mound. That’s why there’s pecking order in bullpens and your Closer finishes games for you, and you live or die with him. Joba had just pitched the night before, so a day off for him is in order. Robertson walks too many guys and tends get into jams of his own, so he’s not an ideal 8th inning candidate with a 4 run lead. That being said, I wouldn’t have had much issue with letting Robertson start the 8th, but that assumes I have Soriano backing him up. Given the fact that Soriano had nothing it’s difficult to argue the result would have been any different had D-Rob got into any trouble, and again he tends to allow baserunners.
Leave in CC, he’s rolling-You got 7 solid innings out of CC, and he threw 104 pitches last night. If this was June or July, they’d have a good point. But in April, pitchers are still building up their pitch counts and arm strength, I’m not having CC throw 120-130 pitches after throwing 106 for the season opener. You let guys build up their pitch counts slowly to protect their health. A rule of avoiding injuries is that pitchers get hurt when they’re fatigued. I’m not extending CC past a point that he’s comfortable with.
Bring Mo in for the 4 out save-Folks, when a 42 year old Mariano Rivera is healthy, relatively fresh and pitching effectively 6 months from now (in the middle of October) a big part of the reason will be because Girardi didn’t bring him in for 4 out saves in April. It may be the reason he’s pitching at all at his age, the fact that the yanks have been so careful . Mo only throws about 8 innings in spring training to get himself ready, and as with CC I don’t want to push him too hard this time of the year. As a rule, at his age, I don’t bring him in for four out saves unless there’s a playoff berth or post season game on the line. There are too many other guys out there who should be able to get the job done.
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with a four run lead, he must trust the rest of the guys in the pen..sori pitched the night before..we have a big series vs stinksox coming up and two more games vs twins..no days off..it is early to start on girardi..but he does this every year..i have been saying this for years about him..he must trust others in the pen..the sept series vs texas he burnt mo. he will never change..it is april..CC was the right move, take him out..we have a loaded pen..joba sori and mo..should be used in a tighter game..then he burns mo for the ninth..should have run the same guy out..take a shot..we have seen this movie from him and will keep watching it..now what ,today does he run mo and sori back out? we need a blow out today either way to rest them for the weekend..
While I agree with your general point that fans can put too much importance on individual game strategy at the expense of long-term thinking, I think you are wrong in this case. Bringing Soriano into a 4-0 game after he pitched last night because he is “the 8th inning guy” is a poor reason. Robertson has not been used much this season (and not the night before) and has proved to be a more than capable reliever. This was at worst only a minor error, but compounding it greatly was Girardi’s head-scratching stubbornness in keeping an ineffective Soriano in the game as his pitch count rose to an uncomfortable level. Don’t these decisions reek of managing with a football mentality and not with the big picture in mind? One of the good things about having a deep bullpen is not having to use one of your more valuable bullpen assets to throw 32 ineffective pitches after pitching the night before.
I just added an edit I forgot to put in the first draft, which addresses why he has that ’8th inning’ title.
There was nothing in his history suggest he would have such a bad outing. In 336 innings as a reliever, he had NEVER walked 3 batters in an inning (h/t Joel Sherman)
You make some valid points, Steve, although I don’t entirely agree with some of them. With a 4-0 lead heading into the eighth, I’d have liked to see Girardi hand the game over to one of the non “7-8-9″ guys (like D-Rob) even if it means some potential walks. It’s not so much a matter of concern over Rafi’s durability or energy or even his ability to handle multiple outings (I think Girardi has a pretty good idea about his players capabilities), but rather a simple question as to whether he really needs to be the one accountable for what should have been a lower leverage situation.
What the decision to use Soriano tells me is that Girardi simply isn’t entirely confident in some of his alternatives for whatever reason at this juncture. Also, for what it’s worth, it seems (albeit perhaps anecdotally) as though closers tend to perform better in actual save situations which may have affected Soriano a bit in this particlar circumstance.
While the old cliche about baseball being a marathon and not a sprint is absolutely true, every game counts in the standings the same whether it be in April or September. Although literally managing every game as if it were a playoff game is certainly not preferable, I think there is some wisdom in approaching each opportunity to grab a “W” with a sense of urgency (especially in the AL East).
Of course, as you note, bullpen management is easy to criticize and is often done so in hindsight. Anyway, just my two cents.
Just to clarify, two of my points:
“Also, for what it’s worth, it seems (albeit perhaps anecdotally) as though closers tend to perform better in actual save situations which may have affected Soriano a bit in this particlar circumstance.”
I know technically it would be a “hold situation” for Rafi. But the concept, I think, still applies given his traditional closer mentality.
” I think there is some wisdom in approaching each opportunity to grab a “W” with a sense of urgency”
I’m not suggesting everytime the team has a lead they resort to Rafi or Mo as that’s fairly contradictory to the rest of my post. Rather, I’m simply stating the Yankees have to keep the big picture in mind while at the same time not undervaluing the moment at hand (which I generally think they do a fine job of – hence the other age old cliche, “taking it one game at a time and one series at a time”).
You make a good point about trying Robertson before Soriano last night. It does say something about Girardi. I don’t necessarily think it means he doesn’t trust Robertson. It might, but it could also mean he simply isn’t willing to deviate from his preconceived plan.
I think your points contradict. Firstly, I want to point out that Joe was going to go to Robertson in the 9th if it stayed 4-0, so he trusts him just fine. That said, how can you say on one hand he needs to try and seize wins anthem on the other hand complain that he used the superior pitcher?
Well for D-Rob, the only reason why I wondered if there was some trust issues is because of the number of times it seems Girardi has warmed the guy up only to sit him back down. I’m not in the clubhouse, and I don’t really know the internal dynamics of the team morale. It was just an observation that crossed my mind. I think it’s hard for a lot of us fans (that’s what we are ultimately) to really know Girardi’s feelings unless he comes out and tells us which he generally doesn’t.
“That said, how can you say on one hand he needs to try and seize wins anthem on the other hand complain that he used the superior pitcher?”
Two things here that I tried to articulate (poorly apparently) in my response.
1. I wouldn’t have used Soriano in the eighth. I would have given D-Rob a shot and then fallen back on Rafi if need be. That’s just me though. It’s not really a matter of looking back in hindsight either. I’m just not sure you need to bring in your second best weapon in a sutation where nearly any of your other available bullpen guys would have probably been sufficient. Just because we have Joba, Sori, and Mo doesn’t mean we have to use them exclusively just because of their inning titles.
2. Regarding my point about trying to win is simple. Steve notes:
“Baseball is a long grind, and early in the season managers are often testing guys out to see how they respond in various situations.”
The way I interpreted this statement was that a manager looks to win but at times may surrender the battle in hopes of winning the war.
I simply noted that it’s important to stress the big picture and the moment (especially given the competitiveness of the division). It’s a tight rope to walk. Just as I clarified in my response, I think the Yanks generally do a good job of this. I’m not complaining about Giradi’s selection; I’m just noting it’s not the one I was hoping for. I think there’s some validity in a number of the reactions I’m hearing.
What nonsense.
Playing to win without considering the big picture is not a winning strategy. But devising a plan before the season starts and ignoring the situation you’re in at any given moment is a losing strategy as well.
I had no problem with bringing in Soriano at that point, but in general, bringing in a guy in in the 8th inning because you have decided to call him your 8th-inning guy is just plain stupid. This is baseball–it’s a statistical game. You don’t always get the same result doing the same thing. To optimize your chances of winning, you try to bring the percentages up. That means paying attention to what the percentages are at the moment. An 8th-inning guy isn’t an 8th-inning guy by divine intervention, and he’s not always the right guy at a particular time for exactly one inning of work.
My problem with Girardi and Soriano last night is that he might have stuck with him a batter too long. He didn’t have his control. It happens, and it doesn’t mean you give up on the guy, who’s a terrific pitcher. But it might mean that you don’t let him walk three batters in a crucial moment. “Living or dying” with a guy is just an excuse for being ignorant of the game you’re in at the moment.
I thought Girardi should have brought in Mariano for a 4-out save. At that point in the game, it’s obviously your best chance to win. The idea that Rivera will burn out because you use him in a four-out save in April assumes that there are only two ways to manage him–either use a guy only in the 9th inning always, or use a guy for every four-out save opportunity possible. That’s stupid. It’s possible to use Rivera in 4-out save situations without burning him out. You use him now, when it increases your chance of winning by a measurable amount, and to make up for it, you skip him at some point when your probability of winning isn’t affected so much. So if in the next few games the Yankees have a 2- or 3-run lead going into the 9th, let Soriano take the save. If he falters, bring in Rivera. If not, You’ve got the outs back for Rivera.
That what managers use to do. They don’t anymore, and part of that is because the players have much more control than they used to. But part of that, also, is just refusing to think more than one level deep.
I agree, if there was something to criticize here, it was leaving Soriano in for too long. However, there is no way I got to Mo for 4 outs at this point. Joe actually said that he used Soriano in the 8th so that he wouldn’t have to use Mo at all last night. A few baserunners did not suddenly make him want to use him for four outs, and rightfully so.
So a few baserunners is worth the difference between bringing in Rivera for 3 outs and not bringing him in at all, but it’s not worth the difference between bringing him in for 3 outs and bringing him in for 4 outs?
A few baserunners is the difference between a win and a loss. You don’t give that up unless you are sacrificing something bigger. And Girardi is only sacrificing something bigger here if he doesn’t know how to manage his bullpen.
Yes. An outing is not that stressful for Mo, in the scheme of things. They didn’t want him to pitch but it wasn’t a huge deal. 4 outs, sitting him down and standing him back up, in that weather, is not ideal. It has always been a last resort with Mo.
I guess we can never know just how much a four-out save here would affect Rivera’s (age-42) season. I think you can manage around it–and getting on the cases of fans who correctly point out the tactical disadvantages really burns me; remember the name of this blog).
Of course, that’s extracting out the human element. I realize you can’t extract out the human element, but, really, if you have to use bad strategy because your ballplayers don’t like good strategy, that’s quite frustrating.
(Not talking about injury. Curiously, though, injury risk doesn’t seem to me to play as high with many ballplayers as ego does.)
My problem with Girardi and Soriano last night is that he might have stuck with him a batter too long.
In real time, things like this are often unavoidable. By the time you figure out Soriano has nothing and Robertson gets warmed up, you will often go a batter further than you’d like. There’s also the pull of wanting to show trust in your setup man. You don’t want to treat him like garbage, you want to give him a chance to work out of his own jams. A reliever with his pedigree has earned that in the major leagues.
Yeah, I agree, leaving Soriano in wasn’t exactly a blunder. I do think that Girardi might have been ready to pull him if his attitude toward bullpen management was a little more sophisticated.
Mariano’s blown save rate is about 10%, and I assume Soriano’s blown hold (blowholds?) rate is about the same. You have to live with a guy not doing the job on occasion. But when you have a chance to pick up a win, it changes the equation.
And a ballplayer should understand that if he’s not doing the job, well, one inning is a small sample size, we’ll get ‘em tomorrow. Maybe they don’t anymore. That’s too bad.
If you don’t think Robertson can protect a four-run lead to start an inning, he shouldn’t be on the team.
SORIANO has never pitched well in Non-Save situations. His early chances in 2011 WERE save situations (albiet he got the hold). K-Rod, Trevor Hoffman, et al can’t pitch in Non-Save situations, and Soriano is the same. Look at GM 5 of last years ALDS for Tampa.
Bigger problem right now; the only NYY offense is via the Home-Run ball. Live by the home-run, die by the home-run.
Yeah, that’s the problem. All those doggone Home Runs.
The ’61 Yankees did all right living and dying by the home run. You what’s interesting about that team? Their infield had an incredibly bad OBP. I think Bill Skowron at first led the infield at .318 (OBP, not batting average). If the Yanks had had decent table setters, Maris and Mantle would have driven in about 200 runs each.
Mantle, one of the great sluggers of all time, used to like to drop down a bunt here and there. I can only imagine what people would say about that today.
I wonder if he bunted for many base hits in his career. I should look it up.
I heard a story about Mantle once bunting the ball on a fly past the second baseman. Probably a tall tale.
P.S. Thanks to everyone for all the fabulous discussion in the comments today. I love the opportunity to sound off and have someone take it seriously.
Hey, Google Books is fun. Here’s a story about Mantle batting leadoff in a game in his rookie year, and draging a bunt for a hit:
http://tinyurl.com/4xmhy7f
agreed
We had to writers write similar posts, and I did not want the other one to go to waste. This one from Eric Schultz:
The Yanke Twitterverse (in no way affiliated with the Yankee Universe charity or the blog formerly known as the Yankee Universe) erupted in outrage last night when, with a 4-run lead, the Yankees brought in setup man Rafael Soriano to relieve a dominant CC Sabathia, who had pitched 7 shutout innings and retired the last 17 batters he faced.
This somewhat surprising use of the setup man with a 4-run lead drew 2 major criticisms from Yankee fans. The first revolves around the fact that since Soriano pitched on Monday, using him today would likely make him unavailable to pitch in Wednesday’s game. Since a 4-run lead is a relatively low-leverage situation, it is a bit curious to use Soriano in what seems to be a relatively safe game (and with Freddy Garcia scheduled to pitch on Wednesday). Alternatively, if Girardi would be willing to use Soriano on Wednesday, then there would be concerns about burning him out. People who fell into this camp were advocating for David Robertson to be brought into the game.
The second criticism revolves around the fact that Sabathia was cruising (retired 17 in a row), and had only thrown 104 pitches (and with Sabathia, pitch counts are not a big concern). People in this camp would have left Carsten Charles in to keep dealing, with Robertson or another reliever ready in case he got into trouble.
I personally would probably have gone with the former path, to avoid overtaxing both Sabathia and Soriano while leaving Soriano available to pitch in today’s game as necessary. However, I don’t know all the considerations going on in Joe Girardi’s mind. Perhaps he was trying to see how Soriano would respond to being used on consecutive days.
Of course, we all know what happened after the Yankees brought in Soriano. Soriano was erratic, loading the bases and walking in a run before eventually giving way to Robertson, who gave up a game-tying 3-run double on a blooper off the bat of Delmon Young. After a scoreless 9th by the Sandman himself, the Yankees were unable to retake the lead in the 9th, and Boone Logan surrendered the eventual winning run in the top of the 10th.
A loss in a game that seemed easily in hand certainly leaves a bad taste in the mouth of Yankee fans, but that doesn’t mean we should lose perspective. This is hardly a time to unleash . Both criticisms of Girardi have merit, but to blame the Yankee loss on Girardi’s “overmanaging” is not exactly accurate or fair. While it may be considered overkill to bring in your setup man with a 4-run lead, there is no way that using Rafael Soriano instead of David Robertson hurt the Yankees’ chances to win Tuesday’s game (you could certainly make a case for Wednesday, but we’re not there yet). As for keeping Sabathia in, I certainly respect that argument, but at the same time, I understand not wanting to overwork the Yankees’ horse so early in the season, and Soriano is far from a scrub reliever (8th-inning meltdown non-withstanding).
There are a number of people to blame for yesterday’s loss. Blame Soriano for putting the team in a jam, Boone Logan for giving up the winning run, or a little bad luck for allowing Delmon Young’s blooper to fall in for a game-tying double. But, as Major Rawls tells McNulty at about 2:38 in this of HBO’s The Wire (following the shooting of a fellow cop. Sorry to go Jason Whitlock on everyone, but I can’t resist a good Wire reference), so will I tell Joe Girardi: “You did not do this. It’s not on you…no it isn’t asshole! Believe it or not everything isn’t about you…so you know if it was on you, I’d be the son of a bitch to say so.”
It was a disappointing loss, but instead of pointing fingers, it’s time to move on. On the bright side, the Yankees are still 2.5 games up on the Red Sox, who after dropping to 0-4 are now only on pace to win 158 games.
Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr…………..
Why can’t you guys just admit that mangers’ decision affect the game? There were a number of options yesterday,and they all affected the Yankees’ win probability. Girardi went for options that lowered his chance of winning. You can argue that they were the correct decisions for certain reasons, but saying that they don’t matter is wrong.
If arguing over strategy is “pointing fingers,” why do you write this blog at all?
Arguing over strategy is fine. Eric doesn’t think it makes sense to point fingers at Girardi in this instance, and I happen to agree. Sure, he impacts games, but I don’t think he lost last night’s game.
Since you posted a new article, you started the argument over, and I repeated, sort of, my initial reaction.
In your next to last paragraph above, you spread blame around and refuse to give any to Girardi. I think you’re wrong. What do you mean by “he didn’t lose the game”? He did lower their chances of winning it, and in this case it made the difference. Sure, lots of other things made more difference, including Soriano stinking up the joint. But that doesn’t mean Girardi DIDN’T lower their chances of winning. He did.
Well, that is true of any move that doesn’t work out. Did he lower their chances before the pitches were thrown? That’s at the heart of a bad move, and I’m not so certain that it is the case here.
That’s a fair question, I think he did. In any case, yes, that’s what I meant, even if I were wrong, I think it’s pretty clear that he didn’t have his best pitcher in the game at the moment of highest leverage, but I admit I’m not capable of running a coherent analysis. It would be interesting if someone could analyze WPAs or something, and make some estimates about it.
So my point boils down to this: I’m a lunatic who has nothing better to do than argue about baseball on blogs, and you’re a blog! Don’t tell me to knock it off! Encourage me!
Hey nice post Steve, I agree with you on that whole, winning every game thing.
To me, you bring in Mo for the 1-out hold, then worry about the 9th inning later once the bases are loaded. I don’t see any rationale other than, “He’s a closer, he finishes the game!” not to do that. Its 100% the best move to do when trying to win a game, but not abuse Mo so early in the season.
I wouldn’t have had a gripe with Girardi if he had done that.
The 8th Inning Guy is a guy who should be brought into the 8th inning to protect a lead of 3 runs or less, not 4 runs or more, because if you bring him in for 4 runs or more enough, he will be shot by August or September and then what?
Girardi fucked up by bringing in Soriano with a 4-0 lead especially when Soriano pitched the night before. He should’ve brought in Robertson for the 8th. Like someone in these comments said earlier, if Robertson can’t be entrusted to hold a four-run lead, he doesn’t belong on this team. Girardi also left Soriano in for too long. Leaving in Soriano yo throw 32 pitches after he pitched the night before is absolutely ridiculous and deserving of a harsh scolding by Cashman considering Feliciano is out for my guess at least a month and what if Soriano gets hurt?
Robertson to Chamberlain if it’s still 4-0 going into the 9th, or leave in Robertson if his pitch count is 10 or less, Robertson to Rivera if it’s 4-1 or worse going into the 9th (or to Soriano if you wanna give Mo a break, see Soriano’s 2010.)
Girardi is a moron who has cost the Yankees both 2011 losses with his bullpen mismanagement. He cost them the game on Sunday by bringing in Colon to hold it to 5-4 Tigers when he should’ve brought in Chamberlain who hadn’t pitched in THREE DAYS. Chamberlain pitched a perfect inning where he didn’t look like he broke a sweat Thursday, the team was off Friday, and he didn’t pitch Saturday. Not only did Girardi bring in Colon because he thinks it’s extended spring training, but he left Colon in after Colon made it 7-4 then 9-6 after the Yankees pulled it to 5-4 and 7-6. In fairness to Colon, he was in uncharted territory and part of a gamble which should’ve never been made.
Bottom line is Girardi looks like a genius when he has a nice Starter 6 / Chamberlain, Soriano, and Rivera 1 each line but crumbles when he has to actually manage and that formula doesn’t apply. He managed the Yankees to a 5-4 loss after his ace gave him/them seven scoreless innings, that’s the real bottom line. The offense can’t score 5 or more runs every night and the team has to win games with 4 runs or less. I don’t blame Soriano or Logan at all, I blame Girardi.
The only way the Yankees should keep Girardi after 2012 is if they win the 2011 and/or 2012 World Series or go to the 2011 and 2012 W.S. with him. If they don’t make the postseason this year or next, he should be fired upon elimination especially if they’re eliminated in the final game of the season. No let him go or lowball him to make him sign elsewhere. Time someone is fired/held accountable if there isn’t a 28th Yankees W.S. championship. Cashman, too. Cashman signs Feliciano who can’t even make it out of camp, then (Cashman) publicly cries about how the Mets abused Feliciano when he wouldn’t have said that or anything about the Mets if Feliciano didn’t get injured. He also sets up Feliciano to be publicly bashed by the Mets who were wrong to single him out, they should’ve focused 100% on Cashman.
And let’s look at Sunday’s awful loss. Btw both of these losses are brutal. You’re down 2-0 then tie it, you’re down 5-2 then pull it to 5-4, you’re down 7-4 and pull it to 7-6, then you’re down 9-6 and lose. You’re up 4-0 after your ace gives you seven scoreless innings and lose 5-4. Awful, stomach-turning losses and I will point to these two losses IF the Yankees miss the postseason or lose the wildcard thus homefield advantage in the A.L. playoffs (or all playoffs if the N.L. wins the All-Star Game) by a game or two.
The Yankees are down 5-4 after 4 innings, Hughes cannot give them a fifth inning. You bring in Colon?!! When Chamberlain hadn’t pitched since late Thursday afternoon / three days? Ridiculous!!! If Chammberlain makes it 7-4 or worse, ok, then you bring in Colon because you can’t burn Soriano and Robertson down 3 or more runs. You don’t bring in a career starter with barely any experience as a reliever in regular-season games to hold it to 5-4 Tigers, you just don’t. You do if you’re Girardi who thinks this is extended spring training. I don’t wanna hear “You can’t manage without thinking of the long-term. Chamberlain hadn’t pitched in three days. He could’ve and should’ve been given the chance to pitch the 5th and 6th innings and hold it to 5-4 or leave with a lead to hand it to Robertson/Logan with or without Soriano and/or Rivera depending on what the Yankees do with the bats after the sixth.
That’s a great way to destroy your bullpen. That spot was perfect for Colon.
Destroy the bullpen? Chamberlain hadn’t pitched in three days and should’ve been brought in to hold it to 5-4, period, end of story, case closed. It was still a one-run game, not 9-4 Tigers.
‘Know who’s destroying the bullpen? Girardi pitching Soriano one night then leaving him in for 32 pitches the next. Soriano isn’t available tonight and probably won’t be available until the first game of the series with Boston this coming weekend. What if the Yankees are up by a run going into the 8th tonight and/or tommorrow night hmmm? And way to bring in Mo to get the final out in the second win of the season (thankfully he threw only 3 pitches.)
No, that’s exactly how you burn out a bullpen, by going to key relievers in the 5th inning. Listen, every season people complain, and every year Girardi ends up with a good bullpen that is healthy and not overworked. He has yet to over or underuse anyone. Forgive me if I don’t freak out right now over moves made in Game 5.