That brief, glorious moment when Joba and Hughes were both in the rotation at the same time

12 Responses to That brief, glorious moment when Joba and Hughes were both in the rotation at the same time

1. bexy says:

   March 30, 2011 at 5:39 pm

   Obviously a lot of other factors were at play here, but despite some individual struggles on the part of each youngster, the team clearly benefited from having both Phil and Joba in the rotation, shortlived as it was.

   I’m not trying to be rude at all but I gotta say – I’d think it’s more the 6.29 runs per game in these 14 starts that helped them there than Joba and Hughes’ combined performances. You can’t kill guys who are very young and starting in the ALE for the first time for having a 4.84 combined FIP, but on the other hand it’s not setting the world on fire.

   I want both Hughes and Joba in the rotation too, very much, and there are a number of really good starts in there. It’s definitely an interesting topic to explore. But you’re trying to find correlation when it was really probably due to something else. (Especially the standings, when 3/5 of the Yankee games had zero to do with Joba or Hughes, and there was another team involved.)

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   Larry Koestler Reply:
   March 30th, 2011 at 5:45 pm

   Oh, I completely agree with you; obviously the run support played a significant role.

   The goal of this post was more about reminiscing about the fact that this event — both Joba and Phil pitching in the rotation on back-to-back days — actually happened. It’s pretty clear from the numbers that they didn’t particularly pitch all that well, and more of a testament to the strength of the rest the team that they wound up as successful as they did in these 14 outings.

   Still, for as long as Joba remains in the bullpen, I’ll continue to hold on to the memory of what might’ve been.

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   bexy Reply:
   March 30th, 2011 at 5:57 pm

   Gotcha. I don’t blame you, at all; it’s tremendously frustrating and even pretty sad. I was just – confused isn’t the right word for it, but something like that, by the last sentence, that’s all. Again, I’m not trying to be rude, and it was a very good article overall. :)

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   Larry Koestler Reply:
   March 30th, 2011 at 6:02 pm

   No worries at all; I never would’ve interpreted it as rude — especially coming from someone like yourself, whose opinion and thought process I respect immensely — but thank you for the courtesy nonetheless. I do apologize if the conclusion was a bit misleading; I probably could’ve worded it slightly better.

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   bexy Reply:
   March 30th, 2011 at 5:45 pm

   wanted to ETA: I do wonder what the numbers look like if you remove that one awful Hughes start against Baltimore. But still, it did happen and removing it entirely seems kinda cheap somehow.

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   Larry Koestler Reply:
   March 30th, 2011 at 5:56 pm

   Interesting. If my calculations are correct, if you remove the Hughes start v. the O’s, the combined ERA goes down dramatically, to 3.59, though the FIP is still pretty ugly, at 4.57.

   While we can’t throw the Baltimore start away, I think it’s probably fair to say that the remaining 13 starts are probably somewhat more indicative of the duo’s true talent level during that time period.

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   Reply:
   March 30th, 2011 at 6:57 pm

   “But you’re trying to find correlation when it was really probably due to something else.”

   Nitpick, but you’re actually arguing that he’s finding correlation, but not causation.

   Obviously 2 starters out of 5 do not account for a winning team all on their own, nobody in their right mind would dispute that. But let’s look at how the numbers above stack up against what the Yanks got out of their 4/5 starters for the season. For this hypothetical I’m just going to look at the numbers put up by non-CC/AJ/Pettitte starters in ’09, and when you do that you get a 5.67 ERA from the rest of the starters. Take Chamberlain and Hughes out of that scenario and you get a 6.34 ERA. Looking at those admittedly ‘back of the envelope’ numbers, I think it’s pretty reasonable to think that having Chamberlain and Hughes in the 4/5 slots was relatively beneficial to the team. Even if you look at what Chamberlain/Hughes gave the Yanks during that stretch as the 4/5 starters, or would have given them over the course of a season, it stacks up just fine against what the average 4/5 starters could be expected to give you (which I believe is an ERA in the high 4s).

   And even just looking at the stretch of games Larry noted, above, I don’t think you can really argue too convincingly that Chamberlain/Hughes didn’t contribute rather substantially to that 9-5 record. There’s really only one game in that stretch that looks like you might consider it a game in which the offense really had to bail out the pitching – the 8-6 win on 4/29 – and even in that game Chamberlain went 7 IP and only allowed 1 ER, so it’s not like the offense necessarily bailed him out (the Tigers scored 5 runs in the 9th in that game).

   Even though it’s clear Larry wrote this more as a fun little piece to remember the time Chamberlain and Hughes were in the rotation together and not as some in-depth analysis of their performance in those games, I don’t think it’s much of a stretch at all to say that having Chamberlain and Hughes in the 4/5 slots helped the Yanks to a good record during that time. It looks like a team with those two guys as their 4/5 tandem would probably have been a really good team that season, no?

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   bexy Reply:
   March 30th, 2011 at 9:15 pm

   If that’s your #4 and #5, yeah you’re in good shape. Wasn’t trying to say otherwise.

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   Reply:
   March 30th, 2011 at 9:45 pm

   Then what were you trying to say? No snark intended, I’m just not sure I get it.

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2. TJ Saint says:

   March 30, 2011 at 6:49 pm

   Great Piece. I think the team was greatly benefited with the two in the rotation. My home grown dream rotation that I hope to see one day is….
   1. Man Ban
   2. Joba Chamberlain
   3. Phil Hughes
   4. Ivan Nova
   5. Hector Noesi
   But again great piece. My hope is that chamberlain becomes the number 2 starter behind Manny some day. I really enjoy though how during this time it looked as if Chamberlain would have been the better starter (obviously not the case today).

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3. Brads says:

   March 30, 2011 at 9:50 pm

   My home grown dream rotation would be:
   Joba Chamberlain
   Delin Betances
   Phil Hughes
   Manny Banuelos
   Ivan Nova or Andrew Brackman

   But I might have to find a spot for CC–he’s not that bad afterall!

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   March 31, 2011 at 12:50 am

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