(The following is being syndicated from The Captain’s Blog).
During the spring, the Red Sox have been universally praised for opening up their checkbook in the offseason. Not only did the team acquire slugging first baseman in a trade with the Padres, but intrepid GM Theo Epstein then blew all other suitors out of the water in his pursuit of .
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Carl Crawford was a centerpiece of the Red Sox offseason rebuilding plans (Photo: Getty Images).
The last time the Yankees went on a similar shopping spree (the 2009 offseason acquisitions of , and ), the team wasn’t exactly lauded for its excess. The Yankees have long been a popular target for resentment, so the backlash wasn’t unexpected. The real irony, however, stems from the criticism GM Brian Cashman has received because didn’t make a big splash this offseason. In this regard, the team really is the Damn Yankees: they are damned when they spend, and damned when they don’t.
Based on the relative offseason activity (or inactivity in the Yankees’ case) of the two rivals, most “experts” have all but handed the division to the Red Sox. In fact, in his latest attempt to explain why he went to Philadelphia, Cliff Lee even cited Boston’s improvements as a deterrent to signing in New York. Of course, what Lee and so many others seem to be ignoring is the Yankees didn’t need either Gonzalez or Crawford because they already possessed comparable talent.
The comparison between Gonzalez and Teixeira is an easy one. Both players are slick fielding, power hitting first basemen who are widely regarded as cornerstone clubhouse guys. In other words, they are the type of player around whom you can build a championship. Not surprisingly, their statistics are also very similar. Over the last five seasons, Teixeira’s wOBA of .391 has been a tick better than Gonzalez’ rate of .373, but all things considered, it’s hard to give one player an advantage over the other.
Another similar, albeit more subtle, comparison exists between the Yankees and Red Sox. Consider the following breakdown.
Mystery Player Comparison, 2005-2010
| Player A | Player B | |
| Age | 29 | 30 |
| Salary | $20.3mn | $10.1mn |
| Position | LF | CF |
| Games | 869 | 801 |
| PA | 3784 | 3396 |
| H | 1051 | 811 |
| HR | 86 | 126 |
| RBIs | 453 | 366 |
| SB | 286 | 79 |
| AVG | 0.302 | 0.269 |
| OBP | 0.347 | 0.341 |
| SLG | 0.463 | 0.482 |
| OPS | 0.810 | 0.823 |
| *OPS+ | 114 | 113 |
| wOBA | 0.360 | 0.357 |
| fWAR | 27.2 | 22.3 |
| *bWAR | 21.6 | 21.4 |
Note: Salary refers to the average amount of guaranteed money owed.
Source: fangraphs.com and (*)baseball-reference.com
Considering the topic of this post, it shouldn’t have been too hard to determine that Crawford (Player A) and (Player B) are the two players compared above. If not for the preface, however, I wonder how many people would have guessed how similarly each player has performed since Granderson (who is celebrating his 30th birthday today) became an everyday player in 2005?
The 2010 acquisition of Curtis Granderson looks like a relative after the free agent prices paid this past offseason.
The comparisons are so similar that only two figures really jump off the page. The first is stolen bases, which significantly favors Crawford, although it should be noted that both players enjoy an over 80% success rate, so some of the difference may be more about opportunity and philosophy than ability. The second figure that stands out is annual guaranteed salary. While the Red Sox are committed to paying Crawford over $20 million per year through his age-35 season, the Yankees only owe Granderson $10 million over the next two seasons (the team has a club option for 2013 that starts at $13 million, but could rise to $15 million if certain incentives are met). In other words, the Yankees could wind up getting the exact same production from Granderson at half the price.
The point of this exercise isn’t to denigrate Crawford or make light of the Red Sox acquisition of him. To the contrary, Granderson’s favorable comparison to Crawford illustrates just how good the deal Brian Cashman made last offseason was. Even though he had to surrender talent like and , players like Granderson don’t come on the market very often. And, when they do, the cost tends to be prohibitive.
The Yankees obviously could use another starting pitcher, but their already talented roster still positions them as a prime contender to win the AL East. The Red Sox may have jumped ahead on the strength of their new acquisitions, but if so, it isn’t by very much. Sometimes we tend to overrate the shiny new toy, but ultimately, the best gifts are the tried-and-true one that always seem to keep on giving.
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Not sure how much a boost in slugging Crawford will see by playing half his games in Fenway.
That said Crawford is a better pure hitter possessing game changing speed. Sox paid dearly but Crawford is worth that money at least those first few seasons.
OPS+ and wOBA are park adjusted, so there really is no need to wonder too much about how Fenway will impact Crawford. Of course, it’s also possible that Fenway will hurt Crawford’s value because the Green Monster will mitigate his defensive contribution and the deeper right field could limit some of his power. It’s hard to say, but I don’t think either scenario changes the point.
While it’s true that Crawford has more speed, I am not sure what makes for a “pure hitter”. Granderson and Crawford have pretty much produced the same offensive output over the past five years. The only difference is Crawford is making twice as much for three times as long.
I tend to agree with you that the Sox aren’t hugely better than the Yanks — on paper– for having added Crawford and Gonzo. But if you take into account the fact that these new guys will get plugged into a Sox lineup that now includes a healthy Youk, Ells, Pedroia, etc., and will hit in that lineup in a bandbox park like Fenway, you gotta admit the Sox are the division favorites–maybe by as many as 5-6 games over the Yanks.
Are you also considering that the Red Sox lost Beltre and Martinez, two players who had very good seasons? Also, Pedroia and Youkilis did not miss the entire season. When both were healthy, the Red Sox weren’t running away with the division. Finally, Ellsbury has a career OPS+ OF 92, so I am not sure if we should be making too much of his return, even if he does play every day.
The Red Sox might be division favorites, but I wouldn’t put the margin at greater than two games, which basically means it’s a toss up.
True, and maybe the Yanks have better starting pitching reinforcements coming in midseason–from AAA or trades–to make up ground, because I’m not sold on the stability of the Sox rotation for the stretch beyond Lester and Buckholz.
Best post so far this offseason guys.
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