It wasn’t so long ago that the Yankees christened their new stadium with the first official game of the 2009 campaign. As the 2009 Yankees meandered into October, they found themselves sitting comfortably atop the proverbial food chain. Meanwhile, the Twins were desperately preoccupied with claiming the final playoff berth. In a one-game playoff with Detroit, the Twins came away with a dramatic win. During the ALDS, Minnesota was promptly victimized in New York by several clutch home runs (compliments of and ) which inevitably marked the end of their season.
This year, a peculiar role reversal has occurred. The Yankees find themselves as the Wild Card entrant after surrendering the battle for league/divisional supremacy. Much like the 2009 Twins, the Yankees’ postseason positioning was halted until the final day of the season and was dependent upon a divisional rival. In eerily similar fashion, the Twins have unveiled a new stadium of their own this year and now they look to the postseason with high expectations with an extremely well-rounded team. There is one critical difference though, and that is the uncertainty of the long ball.
It’ll be interesting to see how scarce home runs will be during this year’s ALDS, which could necessitate a new mode of attack for the Yankees. Consider the table below.
Target Field has surrendered 116 home runs over the course of the season (in comparison to Yankee Stadium’s 223). This total translates out to a barren 1.43 HR per game (3rd lowest in the AL, 5th in MLB) which makes for an interesting dichotomy for both teams.
This trend is probably resultant of a few factors. Perhaps there are more prolific hitters in the AL East, which skews Yankee Stadium. At the very least, the overall pitching in NY has been weaker in terms of HR allowed. Perhaps Target Field is just designed in such a fashion that it’s geared in favor of pitchers. Regardless of the cause(s), it’s clear that the Yankees, with the third-best home run total in the AL, will have to reconsider their offensive approach.
The next two diagrams reflect the HR locations of both stadiums. Unsurprisingly, there are quite a few blue dots peppered around the Cathedral, with the majority falling in the short right porch. Target Field is decorated much more sparingly. While some of the home runs have managed to clear the LF wall, it seems the Twins’ hitters are most comfortable hitting to RF (which makes sense given the fact their lineup is laden with left-handed bats).
In Part 1 of Larry’s ALDS Preview, he mentioned the staggering splits of each team. Although the Twins have a very capable offense (their cumulative triple slash is .273/.341/.422), the long ball, once again, becomes a point worthy of elaboration. When one considers their top six home run hitters (Thome, Young, Kubel, Morneau, Cuddyer, and Mauer), is the only player with more long balls in home games (15 H/ 10 A) than on the road.
The Twins have still managed to remain offensively productive both at home and on the road, while the Yankee offense is significantly worse on the road. The way to win in Target Field is simple: Get on base and keep the line moving. Also: Beware .
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