Avoiding Revisionist History
Yes, this is going to be another post about the Curtis Granderson trade. I don’t yet know what the lineup will look like tonight, but Granderson did not start the past few nights against left handed pitchers. We’ve also gotten news that Granderson and hitting coach Kevin Long will work to completely reform the former’s swing. As I started writing this, Javy Vazquez exited the game after giving up six runs. Nick Johnson, of course, is injured and hasn’t played in quite some time. Still, we must do our best to avoid revisionist history and dump this all on Brian Cashman.
I’ll start with the Granderson trade. Phil Coke is doing well, as is Austin Jackson, though he’s cooled off of late; the same goes for Ian Kennedy. We’ve discussed this trade a lot here recently and it’s not looking great for the Yankees. Despite that, we can’t just “reverse” the trade. For the Yankees, Phil Coke would’ve been the second lefty out of the bullpen. Ian Kennedy likely would’ve started the year in AAA and the same goes for Austin Jackson. It would be fallacious of us to assume that Coke, Jackson, and Kennedy would’ve performed the same as Yankees. It doesn’t look great now, but by next year, I think this trade will look a lot better for the Yankees.
Nick Johnson for DH instead of Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui is still something I would’ve done. Damon was asking for too much and Hideki jumped on what he thought was the best offer he’d get (he’s not exactly raking right now either).
And finally, we come to the Javier Vazquez trade. Anyone who wouldn’t do this trade in a cocaine heartbeat is just nuts. The Yankees traded a fourth outfielder, a future LOOGY, and a (promising but still way off) young pitcher to get Vazquez. Melky Cabrera’s wOBA right now is .308. Arodys Vizcaino is injured. Mike Dunn has thrown just 6.2 innings and has more walks (9) than strikeouts (6). There’s no reason to be miffed at this trade.
Things may not be going perfectly for the Yankee winter acquisitions but those moves were good moves at the time and the one long term move–the Granderson trade–still has time to play out. While it might be tempting, we can’t, nor should we, call these moves instant losses any time the players involved don’t perform.
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Not only is it too early to judge the Vazquez trade, but the Yankees also got Boone Logan in that deal, and he may yet be a better loogy than Dunn. It’s still way to early to judge either of them, but the way Logan is pitching now, he may grow into the type of player that Marte was in his prime.
Exactly. Plus if you’re going to complain in hindsight, you shouldn’t complain about not resigning Matsui, you should complain about not signing Vlad, even with his recent cold spell.
Matt, you’ve nailed it…
Only move I had a big issue with was signing Johnson to be our DH. I had no problem letting Johnny and Matusi walk (although if we were signing someone to be a full-time DH I though Matsui fit our needs), but with Johnson’s health history you just knew he wouldnt stay on the field.
how do you feel about the great signings of chan ho park and randy winn? along with the signing of nick (the sick), not a very productive winter for brian.
The Park and Winn moves were small moves that were easily correctable. That’s what I thought then and it’s what I think now. They were low-risk, medium reward moves that didn’t work out. Every team makes those moves every year.
mistakes by any other name are still mistakes. or is that “a rose is a rose”.
There are multiple ways to evaluate deals. It isn’t just a matter of whether you would rather have the players back because of what they might have done in a Yankee uniform. Another way to consider it is in terms of lost assets that might have been used as the basis for other deals, then or later. If the Yankees had retained Coke, Jackson, and Kennedy, they might have had enough pieces for a better deal later, including enough to bring back Cliff Lee this summer. Trying to judge a trade, then, is very tricky business, complicated by alternative outcomes no longer possible because of the deal.
Overall, I would rate Cashman’s efforts last winter as less than successful, based on the criterion his superiors woudl use — they simply did not pan out, for the most part.
Agree with you here, Matt. I just wrote a post today taking a look at WAR… interesting to note Granderson is at 1.6 – despite missing a good chunk of time – and Damon is only at 1.7. Similarly, Nick Johnson, in his month of actually playing, posted a WAR of 0.1. Matsui has an identical WAR, despite playing all year. Seems to me Cashman was definitely correct in cutting ties with those players.
You are giving Cashman a pass because he was unwilling to give youngsters a chance. IPK and AJax are holding their own in MLB. If Cashman knew what he had in the first place he would not have to make crazy trades. Saying the Granderson trade was good because Cashman would have let talented youngsters rot in the minors makes no sense.
I think Granderson still has a lot left in the tank, and that he’ll play a lot better over the course of his time with the yankees. He certainly wouldn’t be the first guy to have a less-than-stellar first year with the Yanks only to get back to normal from his second year onward.
Vazquez was and still is a no-brainer. A solid pitcher and inning eater who could be a big factor in postseason.
Damon was atrocious in the OF, and his hitting is going to continue to decline. Matsui had spent a lot of time on IR-not as much as NJ, but enough to be concerned. Coupled with his declining offensive skills, letting him go wasn’t a problem. Can’t get ‘younger and more athletic’ with guys like these two.
I can’t recall a lot of talk here or on any NYY board about putting IPK in the 2010 rotation. All I heard was that most of us hoped to get almost anything at all for him in a trade. I don’t recall a lot of ‘he’s a valuable trading chip’ talk. I also don’t recall a lot of people saying that they wanted Ajax starting in the 2010 NYY OF. He may have been a bigger chip than IPK, but not by much.
I agree that we cannot call this trades loses, yet. However, the only way to succesffully evaluate a trade is in hindsight. We expect our GM to see past what is publicly obvious and have the vision to acquire players that are undervalued. Too often we give our GMs a pass becuase it was a widely applauded move at the time. This shouldn’t matter, only the long term results should.