More musings on Upton

By On July 23, 2012 · 13 Comments · In Trade Musings

Yesterday morning, Steve posted about trading for . I’m all for this idea; Upton’s a great talent who’s still under 25 (for about a month or so more) and he’s under team control through 2015. He’d make the Yankees better just like he’d make every other team in the league better if he were traded to them. If the Yankees can get a reasonable deal done in July, they should do it. However, I wonder if they’d be better served waiting for the offseason.

Last night while in the car, I heard Jon Heyman on WFAN, and he seemed to think that the Diamondbacks are seemingly just gauging interest now and will look to move Upton after the season rather than at the trade-deadline. If this comes to pass, I’d like the Yankees to travel down that path. The general thought around the Internet is that any trade the Yankees make for Justin Upton will have to include . Doing that now obviously creates a hole that may not necessarily be easy to fill. While the Yankees could theoretically plug in or to Nova’s vacated spot or make another trade, the former plan is hardly a guarantee (and it keeps in the rotation, a dangerous proposition) and the latter means more usage of resources for something non-guaranteed. Waiting until the off-season gives the Yankees a chance to do a few things.

For one, in terms of replacing Nova for 2013 (and beyond) the Yankees will have more options. Their minor league options–such as Phelps, Mitchell, and –can get more seasoning and be more ready to take over for Nova if he is gone. In a similar vein, they can better evaluate their own assets and see whom they think they can part with or not part with. In the off-season, they can also use their financial resources to pull in a free agent pitcher to replace Nova, something that’s not necessarily possible right now.

If the Yankees can get Upton now without having to give up Ivan Nova or , they should do it. If that is a case that can’t or won’t come true (and Upton doesn’t get traded), they should sit on the sidelines, biding their time, wating to see if the Diamondbacks reopen the Upton bidding.

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13 Responses to More musings on Upton

  1. TheOneWhoKnocks says:
    July 23, 2012 at 11:04 am

    If the Yankees can get Upton now with Phil Hughes being a big chip on that deal, they should pull the trigger.

    Hughes has been inconsistent for 6 years and is about to hit FA after next season. I would absolutely sell high on him right now. However I don’t think the Diamondbacks are at all interested in Hughes, they likely want Nova and I think that’s a deal breaker. We have too much cheap control left on a guy who has already proven he is an above average pitcher in the AL east. We’re going to get Nova’s age 25-30 seasons at bargain basement prices, he’s a far more valuable asset than Hughes.

    Banuelos+Williams+Nunez is probably the base of the deal if something were to happen. I do think another team will be able to make a superior offer to ours in terms of their needs.

    Reply
    • T.O. Chris says:
      July 23, 2012 at 1:44 pm

      The question isn’t if Nova is more valuable than Hughes, the question is whether or not he’s more valuable than Justin Upton over the next 3-4 years. I don’t think there is any question he isn’t. Nova is a good middle of the rotation, one who is probably better than any of us thought he would Upton however has a chance to be a young, middle of the order bat for years to come. For a team with that exact need he could be invaluable.

      Reply
  2. Disco says:
    July 23, 2012 at 11:44 am

    I crunched some numbers last night.

    I just had to estimate WAR, I didn’t use a projection system, but for 2013-2015 I have Upton’s WAR at 4, 4.5, 4.5 and that’s about $78mil in value. After his salary, that’s a surplus of about $38mil.

    As a top 15 hitting prospect, Mason Williams is $25mil. David Phelps I assumed would be in the D-Backs rotation if traded and even if he is below average for the next couple years, at 1 WAR per season he’d be worth about $11mil. Throw in Eduardo Nunez and that’s a fair deal imo.

    However, ML teams probably don’t evaluate like that, and despite getting back two young ML players and a top 30 prospect, I think on paper that just sounds underwhelming and would want Nova or Hughes or Chamberlain, or even Banuelos.

    Reply
    • T.O. Chris says:
      July 23, 2012 at 1:46 pm

      I think I’d be willing to go as far as Williams, Nova, Banuelos, and Nunez for Upton. He’s been inconsistent over the last few years but his talent is undeniable, and being introduced to a clubhouse that posses the work ethic of Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano should only aide him in becoming one of the games best young sluggers. I would also move him to Left or Center field to raise his value for the team long term.

      Reply
      • Matt Imbrogno says:
        July 23, 2012 at 2:15 pm

        I think I’d do that deal.

        Reply
        • T.O. Chris says:
          July 23, 2012 at 2:45 pm

          I think the only way Towers does it though is if he really believes in Banuelos’ ability as a starter from his time in the organization. It’s also a much more likely deal to happen after the season since Manny isn’t healthy.

          Just imagine that outfield for next year though, if Granderson doesn’t get traded. Granderson-Gardner-Upton. Personally I’d look into either trading Granderson or replacing Gardner altogether and try and sign BJ Upton to lay CF. Who knows maybe BJ’s true potential comes out with his brother pushing him the whole time.

          Reply
    • bg90027 says:
      July 23, 2012 at 2:43 pm

      The problem with those trade calculators is that they value all WAR as being equal when it should be valued exponentially with incremental WAR in one player being more valuable than a bunch of WAR spread out amongst several different players. Teams don’t think that way and you have to pay a premium for players that have superstar talent and production. I think T.O. Chris’ proposal is more representative of what it would take in terms of talent and even then I suspect that someone else would offer a package either greater or equal but a greater fit with AZ’s needs. I don’t think I’d do that deal anyway even if I get the logic behind it.

      Reply
      • T.O. Chris says:
        July 23, 2012 at 2:46 pm

        Are you just that sold on Nova’s value or Banuelos’ upside?

        Reply
        • bg90027 says:
          July 23, 2012 at 4:01 pm

          I am high on Nova being a valuable member of the rotation for years to come with some upside above the level he’s providing now although I’m certainly not saying he’s untouchable. I’ve never been Banuelos’ biggest fan but think trading Banuelos now would be selling low on him. Unless injuries completely derail his career, I think he could be a future starter for NY and he is still their best prospect above High A.

          It mostly comes down to not being the biggest Upton fan (I like him and recognize his potential but I don’t covet him) and thinking trading for him is probably not the best use of resources. They can fill RF more cheaply (in terms of talent lost) and while Upton could play CF, they won’t really need a CFer for another two years and Williams could be ready then if they keep him. I think he’s a want more than a need, and I’d keep the trading chips around to either help fill needs internally or serve as trade bait for what will likely be bigger needs down the road.

          Reply
          • T.O. Chris says:
            July 23, 2012 at 4:44 pm

            I appreciate Nova’s value to the rotation as a cheap innings eater but even with his increase in Ks I really don’t see him as ever being more than a number 3 in a championship rotation. I also don’t think getting Upton would prove to be selling low on Manny, I question his ability to be durable anyway so I’d be willing to pull the trigger if that’s all it took to acquire a soon to be 25 year old potential superstar. I also think Upton would allow you to trade Granderson rather than extend him or simply let him walk, which could fill another lineup or rotation hole.

            I look at the chance to acquire Upton like the ability to obtain a 25 year old Gary Sheffield, if you have the ability you do so.

            I think it’d be really pushing it to expect Williams to be ready in a season and a half from now. He’d have to go from High A to the majors in an extremely sort period of time. I think you wouldn’t see Mason in the majors until he is 23/24 years old at the rate he’s going. Plus I think we need a new CF next year, Granderson has clearly regressed to the point where he needs to be moved to one of the corners. The obvious move is Gardner to CF, but he’s not proving to be the most durable player.

            Reply
            • bg90027 says:
              July 23, 2012 at 5:31 pm

              Gardner doesn’t become a free agent until after the 2014 season. So when I was saying perhaps Williams would be ready, I didn’t mean a year and a half from now when Granderson is a free agent, I meant 2.5 years from now when Gardner is a free agent. I don’t draw any conclusions about Gardner’s durability from this year’s injury. He played over 150 games in the two prior seasons. I can also live with Granderson’s defense in CF.

              I think Nova could be a #2 in a championship rotation. I’d be more comfortable with him as a #3 but I think he could be a #2. Who knows how good Pineda will be when he comes back next year. Hughes will be a free agent after next season. It’s probably less than a 50/50 that either Pettite or Kuroda will be back next year. They will need more pitching in 2013 and 2014. I’d be reluctant to give up Banuelos and Nova given the lack of other close internal options at a time they are trying to lower payroll.

              Like I said though, I just don’t covet Upton. I’m not arguing that it’s not a fair trade proposal in terms of equal value. I just think you create more problems by depleting the rotation and system depth than you solve by trading for Upton.

              Reply
              • T.O. Chris says:
                July 23, 2012 at 6:27 pm

                He may have “played” 150 games but he only started 134 in each of those two seasons, the rest he came in late as a defensive replacement. He’s also been on the DL multiple times in his short career and missed a good chunk of 2009 with injury. It’s getting progressively harder to deal with Granderson’s bad breaks, poor route running, and inability to judge balls off the bat. Each year past 30 will become increasingly worse as his speed falls. He needs to move to the corner next year.

                I simply don’t see him as being that good, which is where the difference lies in our evaluation I guess. I never saw Wang as someone you could win with as a number 1 and he was a much better ground ball pitcher than Nova is. I also don’t like that he’s sacrificed some ground balls for Ks, I think he’d give up less HRs pitching for less Ks.

                I actually think both Kuroda and Pettitte will be back next year. Pettitte seems like he still has the fire and will want to compete for a full season, and Kuroda won’t be getting any multi year deals a year older than last season.

                I just see our bigger problem going forward being young middle of the order bats. Our lineup is getting older and older, clearly Alex is never going to be 30 HR Alex again, and Teixiera is never going to go back to being a .300 hitter. With Cano already in his 30′s and my complete lack of faith in Granderson aging gracefully I think we have to strike when the iron is hot to get a young middle of the order guy.

  3. bg90027 says:
    July 23, 2012 at 9:06 pm

    I never saw Wang as a #1 on a championship team either. I don’t see Nova as a #1 either. I think Wang was good enough in his prime to be a #2 on a championship team and I think Nova could be. We are quibbling here though. It doesn’t matter if he’s a #3 or a #2. He’s very valuable to the Yankees because he eats innings, mostly pitching well, and as a result they win a hell of a lot of his starts. Just like they did with Wang. I’m not counting on either Kuroda or Pettite coming back next year. Maybe they do, maybe they don’t. I think NY would welcome them back but I have no idea that either plans to play next year. I don’t think any of us do and it would be foolish to count on it. Whether they play next year or not, I think it would be very surprising if either of them played in 2014. I also would be surprised if Hughes re-signs with the Yankees after next year. If he does, it won’t be for cheap. For all we know at this point, Pineda will never throw a pitch again. With the team trying to shed salary, they need internal options for the rotation. I don’t see many in the Yankees system that you can really safely project as being more than a back of the rotation starter. I’d be reluctant to trade Nova for anything other than a better starting pitcher right now.

    With regard to Gardner, you’re right that he didn’t start all those games. Why does it matter though? He started the vast majority of them and he was clearly on the roster all year since he played in over 150 games the past two years. In fact, he played in 159 last year. He couldn’t have been on the DL either year. He played too many games for that to be possible.

    I’d also point out that there will very well might be greater priorities other than a young outfielder. They might not resign Cano after next year. Catching is an issue. How is A-Rod going to hold up? The more they deplete the prospect pool, the harder it will be too fill these potential holes. I just think Upton is a luxury that they can’t afford right now. If I was as big a fan as you probably are, maybe I’d feel different. I doubt it though. I’d probably still think it was a bad allocation of resources.

    Reply

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