Last week, Tyler Austin, Gary Sanchez, and Mason Williams were promoted from Low-A Charleston to High-A Tampa. All three had been hitting the cover off the ball in Charleston, progressing on defense, and playing against older, more experienced opponents. Thus, all three duly earned spots on Baseball America’s list. Williams is ranked #28, Sanchez #30, and Austin #39. All three rankings seem appropriate, although I’d personally put Sanchez in front of Williams. Still, its been a long time since the Yankees had three all-star caliber hitting prospects progressing together through the farm system.
That’s the (very) good news. But even given the performances of those three, it has been a bad year for the Yankee farm system. The more I think about it, the more I think that it has been a very bad year for the Yankee farm system. A year ago I was very comfortable calling the Yankees a top-10 farm system in all of baseball, possibly top-5. This year, I think the organization is in danger of falling into the bottom half.
The problem lies in the upper levels. Here’s just some of the bad news that we’ve seen:
- Manuel Banuelos has been sidelined with an elbow injury, and his timetable for return has been uncertain. This is the first very serious injury of his career. As an undersized pitcher, we should all be very worried about Banuelos’ elbow.
- Austin Romine hasn’t played a game, in EST, spring training, or during the regular season, due to a recurring back issue.
- Dellin Betances’ game has completely collapsed. He has shown little of the stuff and none of the command that he developed over the last few years.
- Adam Warren and D.J. Mitchell have been inconsistent. More and more, Mitchell looks like a future MLB reliever, and Warren is having serious problems striking out batters at the rate he will need to.
Now, some good news balances this out. Corban Joseph is having his best offensive season ever, even if his defense remains pretty raw. Guys like Melky Mesa, Brett Marshall, Cody Johnson and David Adams are having interesting seasons. But besides David Phelps, the Yankees probably can’t count on much help from their farm system any time soon. Half of their top-10 prospects have been knocked out by ineffectiveness, trade or injury since the beginning of the year. Extend Michael Pineda to the equation, and the upper levels of Yankee depth and the Yankee organization went from well-stocked and deep to injured, shallow, and pessimistic.
A generational shift happened last year in the Yankee farm system. The Yankees became very strong down low in the farm system – the rest of the Charleston Riverdogs, Slade Heathcott, and others – while maintaining tremendous depth at Triple-A. Their donut hole looked innocent enough at the start of the season, but now it looks a lot more like a bare cupboard. The Yankee farm system was so strong for the last few years because it not only had top-end prospects like Jesus Montero, but also the resilient depth that so many others in baseball lack. They still have three top prospects (and will have two more if Banuelos and Campos manage to get over their elbow issues), but the guys in the 6-15 range are going to be much weaker than they were in previous years.
Good things can still come out of the lower farm system. While Bryan Mitchell, Cito Culver, Angelo Gumbs, and Dante Bichette have had seasons in the range of very-bad-to-just-mediocre, all four have some reason to be optimistic about them. Slade Heathcott is performing very well following his return from another shoulder injury. The Yankees brought in a lot of talent to the GCL Yankees and Staten Island Yankees short-season teams, and some strong prospects will likely emerge from the chaos there. I don’t think its likely that we’ll see the type of group emerging that did so last year, but some combination of Greg Bird, Peter O’Brien, Austin Aune, Tyler Hensley (when he signs), Jordan Cote, Claudio Custodio, Ravel Santana, Taylor Morton, Matt Duran, Evan Rutckyj, and others will sort out to 1-2 top-10 prospects and 2-3 top-15 prospects by year’s end.
The sky is not falling. But I tend to hear a lot of undignified responses whenever BA or someone else rates the Yankee farm system lower than some fans think it should be. Make no mistake: the Yankee farm system is getting worse, not better. This is why I oppose any significant acquisitions at the trade deadline. The ship may be righted in the future, but the Yankees do not need another exodus of talent right now.
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If Campos and Banuelos were healthy that wouldve given us 5 in the top 50. Banuelos had apparently gotten a lot better in control at the AAA level before going down with the injury and Campos was also doing very well and showing the talent that made him such a talented prospect coming into this year. Slade heathcott is hitting with power too. The high end talent is doing pretty good, its just far away. Given the construction of this team with so many veterans signed to long term deals, isnt this kind of ideal? Not like the Yankees would have room for them anyway or be able to give them consistent playing time so that they can get better
We actually don’t have that many veterans signed to long term deals. The Yankees have near-term holes to fill at CF, RF, C, 2b, and DH, plus SS soon enough. 3b, 1b, Gardner and Sabathia are covered for awhile, but I don’t think the Yankees should get comfortable there.
There’s two problems with having strength in lower-down prospects: time delay, and risk. The farther away a good prospect is, the greater the chance of something going wrong and keeping them out of the major leagues.
Also – big if’s out of Campos and Banuelos there.
I tend to agree with Michael. If Banuelos and Campos come back and pitch in a month or so, this looks a lot different. They’ll have lost development time but both are young.
Phelps has been much better than I expected and we had no right to expect all three of him, Warren and Mitchell to pan out to anything (and its too early to give up on any of the three).
Bichette and Betances have been very disappointing but Austin has been much much better than expected and Gumbs is emerging as a potential significant prospect as well.
I don’t disagree with your assessment of where we are but things could look dramatically different in a years time. I agree though that I wouldn’t look to make a major trade deadline which I think would cost too much right now. I probably would have felt that way regardless though because I just don’t see them having any glaring needs.
I’m confused by your logic. On one hand you’re decrying the state of the farm system and saying it’s getting worse. If that’s the case then that’s an argument for trading some of these guys for what you can get, no?
No, not really. Unless you’re talking about fleecing another team who doesn’t know a prospect is worth less than they are. You have to give up future value to get present value. The Yankees can’t afford to rob Peter to pay Paul right now.
Fleecing isn’t necessarily involved. Suppose the Phillies held a fire sale and were willing to take a flyer on Heathcott and Betances in exchange for Carlos Ruiz? Wouldn’t you do that?
Probably, although I’d hesitate for Heathcott. Anything of value for Betances at this point is basically fleecing.
Doesn’t Ronnier Mustelier count for anything? He may be 27 but seems MLB ready just about now
I love the stats, but I think its telling that the Yankees aren’t promoting him to the majors even though Dewayne Wise is there.
My take: Yanks certainly have had a bad year with pitchers. Witness Campos, Betances, Banuelos. But they’ve actually had a pretty good year with hitters, as evidenced by the 3 Top 50s, an excellent showing.
But it’s not just at the lower levels. Some very interesting devlopments the last month at Trenton. Melky Mesa has cut down signficantly on Ks while retaining his power and batting .280. Abe Almonte has emerged as a potential platoon/bench option. Perhaps Zoilo too. And even the given-up-for-dead David Adams has revived of late. I also think you’re dismissing Mustellier too easily.
This is a good review of the system. But I guess I see the glass as half full.
I definitely think that there’s a lot to be excited about. The Yankees aren’t the Astros – there’s hope. At the same time, I’d stress that with the exception of Tyler Austin, none of this is really new good news. Mason Williams and Gary Sanchez basically did what we expected of them, or maybe exceeded our expectations a little bit.
Banuelos, Betances, Romine, Campos, Bichette, Culver, Mitchell, etc. all significantly disappointed expectations, which I think sets the overall trend of the farm system. More bad news than good news means its a bad year.
Any updates on Campos?
I haven’t seen any news in awhile, so I assume that he’s still shut down. His injury was considered more severe than Banuelos’ at the time.
Both Banuelos and Campos are rehabbing in Tampa. I could have sworn that I recently read that one of the two (Banuelos?) was expected to rejoin his team in a couple of weeks and that the other one was just a few weeks behind him. Now that I try to find where I read that I can’t seem to find it anywhere.
No love for Saxon Butler or Taylor Dugas w/ the SI Yankees?
Ask me again after the short season. I’m always highly skeptical of news coming out of short season ball.
But you’re already projecting Custodio and Duran as possible top 10 prospects?
“But some combination of Greg Bird, Peter O’Brien, Austin Aune, Tyler Hensley (when he signs), Jordan Cote, Claudio Custodio, Ravel Santana, Taylor Morton, Matt Duran, Evan Rutckyj, and others will sort out to 1-2 top-10 prospects and 2-3 top-15 prospects by year’s end.”
I don’t think there’s anything unclear about what I wrote. And Butler and Dugas are way down on the list of potential breakout prospects. Even if they keep up a strong pace, they wouldn’t be even close to the first NY-Penn League college low-round prospects to beat up on short season pitchers and then flop in the full season leagues.
I just was trying to help you do some more thoughtful analysis of the New York Yankees farm system!
I apologize if that came off negatively. But I wouldn’t invest too much in Butler and Dugas if I were you.
EJ’s overall analysis is spot-on. Much has gone wrong with the farm system this year. I’ve said it before: there isn’t a #1/2 starting pitching prospect in whom we shoudl have any confidence; the selection of Culver looks more and more like the disaster soem of us called it at the time; the talent int he upper levels that you need for trades isn’t there.