With ‘s recent injury, freakish though it may be, we’re forced to think (again) about his future with the team. No, he’s not going to injure himself out of baseball and the team isn’t going to cut him. They’re stuck with him, for better or worse, until his contract runs out. I’m sure Brian Cashman and company have come to terms with it and fans need to do the same (if you haven’t done this by now, do it). What I’m talking about, of course, is his positional future. The days of A-Rod at third base may just be numbered.
Let’s start with a simple breakdown of A-Rod’s numbers at the various positions. Instead of taking his whole career into account, though, let’s look at post-2008, when the A-Rod we know, the oft-injured one, started to show up. From 2009 onward as a third baseman, A-Rod has hit .274/.363/.486 in 1469 at bats. In that same span as a DH, admittedly a much smaller sample–216 ABs–he’s hit .301/.382/.537. The batting average and on-base percentage are actually right inline with his career numbers (.301/.385), though the slugging is a bit lower. Now some of that is definitely random, especially because of the small sample, but this year the trend has continued (.772 OPS as 3B; .913 a DH). I give this a bit more weight because this year, Rodriguez is getting much more prescribed rest and DH-time; these aren’t random at-bats and there’s a plan as well as a trend that has continued.
Rodriguez’s injuries–the one’s he’s spent time on the DL for–have all been lower-body related (save for this recent one, which is definitely a bit different). He, of course, had his hip surgery. He also missed time with a knee injury and a calf injury. Those things most definitely do not bode well for a player taking the field every day, or even just most days. As Alex ages, those things are likely to get worse before they get better (and they may not get better at all). Getting him off the field will likely help him stay healthy and productive. That, of course, is the biggest benefit. There are definitely some cons. The biggest con is that there isn’t a ready replacement for him. is probably a platoon bat at best and while Corban Joseph has certainly handled himself well, he’s a second baseman. I would like to see the Yankees try him at third since he really doesn’t have much of a future at second with New York, but I’m not sure if it’ll happen that way. And, of course, there’s the “value” argument. At least at third, he can provide some defensive value and his bat is likely to be farther above the average third baseman than it is to be above the average DH. But when we think about it for more than 30 seconds, we realize that he’s never going to live up to the dollar value of that contract. Like the length, it’s just something we’re stuck with. Now, we have to just let the Yankees get the most production out of Rodriguez possible and it seems that having him DH is the best way to do that. Even if there isn’t an immediate replacement and even if he’ll never return good “value,” the benefit of keeping him healthy and productive is much bigger than any con we can think of.
When we first discussed this idea in our email discussions right after A-Rod’s injury, I didn’t think it would or necessarily should mean the Yankees should shift him to DH. But the more and more I think about it, the more appealing it gets and the more sense it makes.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
14 Responses to Is it time to swallow the DH pill?
Leave a Reply
-
TIQ IQ
I’m glad to see someone else thinking down the road on this issue. Keeping Alex in the batter’s box has the very best potential for return on the contract dollar along with keeping him as healthy as possible. Yes, some humble pie will have to be eaten by Alex but I think we can take a page from the Ichiro book here: it’s what’s best for the team going forward and actually is likely to allow Alex to reach the offensive milestones he seems destined for.
On top of that, there is a certain third baseman in San Diego that seems to be a good fit for our team going forward. I would make the inquiries as to prospect cost to get him in a trade and unless the cost is way over the top prohibitive, I’m pretty sure I’d pull the trigger on the deal. That would give us another serviceable RH bat and a healthy, league average guy to man the position who also hits for power and can plate some runs besides. Also getting him out of Petco Canyon will very likely help his offensive numbers. That would solve the 3B and DH issues for the forseeable future and maybe bring some stability to the budget as well.
If the cost was low Headley would be a no brainer, unfortunately I really don’t see that being the case. Clearly front offices know what Chase can do, and the Padres know what his value would be to a contender. I see his value only rising as we get closer to the deadline as more teams compete for his services, and if the Padres don’t get what they want they always have the option of waiting until the offseason to even get those teams who aren’t in one of the WC races involved.
I can’t see Headley going for anything less than a package similar to M.Williams, Phelps, Nunez, and maybe even Betances or Banuelos to offset how far away Williams is and the lack of superstar upside in Nunez and Phelps. Even then however I think another team could offer up better prospects, or potential high upside prospects closer to the major leagues. This won’t be a take whatever comes there way trade.
Forget it TO, I wouldn’t give up that much for Headley. I wouldn’t even give up phelps and nunez for him.
Nunez is going to be a .300 hitter with 15 hrs and 50 + stolen bases as Yankee SS for 10 future seasons. If CashMan and Co. dont yank him around and ruin his head like they did Joba.
They’ll get plenty better than Nunez and Phelps for Headley.
Please stop calling me TO. It stands for “The Other” because there was a writer who went by “Chris H” on the old TYU, call me Chris if you insist on responding via name.
“Nunez is going to be a .300 hitter with 15 hrs and 50 + stolen bases as Yankee SS for 10 future seasons. If CashMan and Co. dont yank him around and ruin his head like they did Joba.”
Really?
Matt and mikeman……exactly …it makes sense to move Arod to DH And get a younger third baseman. Arods body and fielding will only get worse as time passes. And with Arod at DH we dont have to use old fart DH rentals every season like Jones and Ibanez ….who are not half the hitter Arod is.
I’ve been trying to tell this to TO Chris.
Rodriquez will have to eventually move to full time DH at some point and in the not too distant future. However, I think you are under rating Ibanez, Jones, & Chavez.
A Rod: .276/.358/.449/.807 iso = .173
Ibanez: .235/.294/.435/.729 iso = .200
Chavez: .266/.328/.468/.796 iso = .203
Jones: .224/.296/.487/.786 iso – .263
Clearly A Rods value now depends more of his OBA more than his power. While is the opposite for the other three. I think the DH rentals have been a great boost for the Yankees.
Yeah Phil don’t get me wrong I love the job that they have done. And the stats don’t even show the amount of big hits they have gotten to win games.
And like you said Arod’s power was diminished.
But if I had to bet on who will be more productive in the future – I’d go with Alex. He was turning it around and the power was coming back if you saw his last 3 weeks.
Unfortunately, over that past few years A Rod has often shown signs of regaining some of his pop. I can’t even remember his hitting HRs in consecutive games this year.
Clearly A Rod will contribute more in the future than those three guys. But Cashman has had a knack of getting effective role players and I believe that he can continue to do so.
Using A Rod as a full time DH means he would probably only play 130 or so games a year. Jeter will need days off (or 1/2 days) and so will others on the team. I think it makes sense to keep A Rod in the field for a few more years and paste together some DH rentals.
I have no problem moving Alex to DH most of the time in the right scenario, I just don’t think that’s the direction Cashman is looking to go in right now. Alex for the most part has been getting hurt while at bat and is still a good fielder at the position. Batting him at DH may keep him slightly heathier, though I still am not convince it solves his injury woes, but I think the Yankees are looking to squeeze another year or two out of position player Alex before they lose the lineup flexibility that comes with 1 everyday DH.
Yes TO but we don’t really know what direction CashMan is leaning too. No matter what he says in the press…so we should take that out of our thought process when discussing possible moves.
That’s why I said the words “I THINK”. You’re the only one acting like you know what Cashman is thinking, or that I am saying something other than personal opinion. All anyone can state on these blogs is opinion, I back mine up to the best of my ability but they are still opinions.
Would the best use of A-rod be to have him DH most of the time with a him spelling the third baseman when others need a half day off?
It would be useful to perform a statistical test to quantify how significant the difference between the two samples are. While the several thousand plate appearances should have low variance, it’s possible the PA as a DH are scattered randomly. Further, the games he played DH may have been against a certain type of pitcher, a certain time of the year (dog days of summer, when offense is generally increased).