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Arod’s injury has left a void in the Yankees’ lineup. (Photo: AP)
Replacement level is one of the underlying fundamentals of sabermetrics that many people struggle to grasp. Over the next few weeks, Yankee fans unfamiliar with the concept are going to get a crash course.
Even before breaking his hand in the eighth inning of last night’s loss to the Seattle Mariners, Alex Rodriguez’ 2012 had been a disappointment. Despite remaining healthy, his offense and defense were down across the board, continuing a trend since his last MVP season in 2007. However, because Arod’s decline is coming off such a high peak, the third baseman has remained one of the team’s most productive players. In terms of average WAR (Wins Above Replacement), Arod ranks fourth on the team at 1.7, just behind Curtis Granderson. That’s a miniscule total compared to Rodriguez’ prime years, but when juxtaposed against the Yankees’ potential in-house replacements, the resultant drop-off could make it seem as if the Bronx Bombers are, in fact, losing the Arod of old.
2012 Yankees Average WAR
Note: AvgWAR = (bWAR+fWAR)/2
Source: baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com
Who are the potential replacements? Against right handers, Eric Chavez will likely become the regular third baseman, which really isn’t much of a change from the alignment used frequently before the Ichiro acquisition. If Chavez can maintain his current performance against righties, the former All Star won’t be much of a downgrade, if at all. In fact, because Chavez may have lost playing time to Ichiro Suzuki, the net difference in the regular lineup against righties, which figures to have Ichiro and Raul Ibanez installed in left field and at DH, respectively, could be negligible. Of course, it remains to be seen whether the injury prone Chavez can take on even an incremental amount of playing time. If not, the Yankees will be faced with an even more unenviable position than the one they’ll encounter against an opposing left hander.
Arod’s Platoon Splits, 2002-2012
Source: fangraphs.com
In a reversal from the past few seasons, Arod has been one of the Yankees’ leading performers against southpaws. Even when he was healthy, the Yankees’ split-based vulnerability, especially against lefties, was a problem, but now, it has been exacerbated. In place of Rodriguez, the Yankees initial plan calls for a combination of Jayson Nix and Ramiro Pena (although the return of Eduardo Nunez looms as a possibility), two players whose limited playing time has been characterized by offensive ineptitude. Joe Girardi will likely be counting on Nix to produce at his career wOBA of .322 against lefties, but even if that figure is attainable, it will represent a significant drop off from Arod’s production. As for Pena, well, his career wOBA of .137 versus lefties says it all.
In addition to suffering the drop-off from Arod to Nix or Pena, the Yankees will have no choice but to play one of Chavez, Ibanez, and Ichiro in each game against a lefthander. With respective wOBA rates of .098, .202, and .222 this season, whomever Girardi chooses will likely further weaken the lineup.
Losing Arod is a significant blow to the Yankees. There’s no way to deny it. Now, the question becomes whether the team can absorb it. Although the Yankees’ seven game lead provides a nice cushion, with over 60 games remaining, it is hardly insurmountable. A lot will depend on how many games Arod winds up missing, but at the very least, it seems prudent for Brian Cashman to search for a player who would represent an upgrade over Pena. With 12 pitchers, the Yankees bench is already handicapped, so the team can ill afford to give away a roster space. Unfortunately, with so many teams still in the hunt for the two wild cards, it won’t be easy to find even a marginal upgrade.
Is Chase Headley Bronx bound? (Photo: AP)
If Cashman finds himself frustrated by the pursuit of a replacement-type player, there is at least on everyday third baseman on the market (before the Dodgers acquired him last night, Hanley Ramirez would have qualified as well, but the Yankees either didn’t approach the Marlins or had no interest in taking on his contract). The Padres have been shopping Chase Headley around for some time, and, according to Buster Olney, the Yankees are now one of the teams that is interested. Because of Headley’s versatility, the 28-year old switch hitter could fill in for Arod and then move into the outfield upon his return. As a long-term solution, he could either become the permanent third baseman in 2013, shifting Rodriguez to DH, or wind up as Nick Swisher’s replacement in right field. It seems like an attractive solution, but what about the cost?
Based on reports, the Padres asking price for Headley is high, so the Yankees would probably have to part with one or more of their top prospects to make a deal. If the Padres’ third baseman is true to offensive performance over the last season-plus (OPS+ of 121 in both 2011 and so far in 2012), the cost would be justified. However, Headley has been a late bloomer, and, at 28, might not have much more upside than his current rate of production. Also, although his park adjusted numbers are attractive, his underlying performance doesn’t jump off the page. Is it a given that Headley would benefit from leaving PetCo Park? His home/road splits suggest he should, but considering the transition from the NL West to the AL East, there might be too much risk to sell the farm.
Chase Headley’s Home/Road Splits, 2008-2012
Source: fangraphs.com
If Brian Cashman thought his work was done with the Ichiro trade, Arod’s injury completely changed that dynamic. Now, the GM has to determine whether the Yankees can survive without Rodriguez, and if he decides that reinforcements are needed, the appropriate cost must also be calculated. In addition, Cashman must weigh potential long-term solutions against other alternatives that may present themselves in the off season. Over the next few weeks, the Yankees GM figures to be a very popular man, but, when all is said and done, will Yankees’ fans feel the same way about his decisions?
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19 Responses to Arod’s Injury Creates Hole in Yankees’ Lineup; How Will Cashman Fill It?
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TIQ IQ
Great analysis
I told you T.O. , the Yankees are interested in HeAdley.
And they would move ARod to DH.
Everything I’ve read says the Yankees have no shot at Headley and aren’t planning on going outside the organization to fill in 3B.
In fact here’s Cashman’s quote on it.
“Chavez is the solution and Jayson Nix is the solution, and whoever we have in the farm system are going to have to be the solution. I’m very comfortable with Eric Chavez as Alex’s replacement”.
If they wanted to go get Headley I’d probably be OK with it. However we don’t have the system to beat out other teams offers at this point and there’s no reason to get another half time player when we already have Chavez, Nix, Nunez, Pena, and Laird to be that kind of player.
Believe me Nix is not any part of the solution and CashMan knows it. He’s just keeping leverage in bargaining by not sounding desperate .
Remember when he said Buuba Crosby was our solution in CF and then got Damon?
Yanks have several in-house options to improve against lefthanders. Unfortunately, Cashman seems to have grown phobic about using prospects — perhaps the result of the Kennedy/Hughes/Joba interlude some years ago (though all have since proved themselves valuable major leaguers).
The problem as I see it is that the Yankees are determined to cut budget — but they’re not willing to develop the in-house options they’ll need to do it.
There are no fewer than four internal options to help Yanks in this situation. The best IMO would be Mustellier– but he is hurt, so that’s unfortunate. Still, there is Brandon Laird, who has finally adjusted to AAA and has been hitting well and with power of late. He is also a competent third bnaseman, so there’s that. Offering less power, but good contact skills and high BA is Kevin Russo, also capable of filling in at third. Finally, there is the controversial Nunez. At the very least, his speed and offense would be valuable, though his defense — like that of Nix — is scary. In any case, all these four options offer realistic hope of hitting lefties better than the anemic wOBAs of Chavez, Ibanez etc. Most importantly, they would not require the surrender of young talent — the worst possible solution with no budget constraints looming and with the new CBA limiting access to young talent.
I think once Nunez is done with his rehab assignment he and Chavez will be the main platoon at 3B. I just don’t see Laird as a major league player, he comes off as a AAAA bat who will always struggle against major league pitching. In 1030 PA in AAA he has a triple slash line of .253/.294/.406. I don’t think the extremely small sample size people are using to say he’s got it now is enough to trump 1000 plate appearances where he has shown he can’t even get on base above 30% of the time in AAA. He has some major holes in his swing and he isn’t very patient, that’s not a good combo when facing veteran major league pitching.
*with new budget constraints*
I don’t necessarily disagree, TO, on Laird. He may prove to be a AAAA or even just a AAA player. But keep in mind that he is still just 24. His bad year last year was as a 23 year old in AAA– that’s not ultra-young, but it’s relatively young for AAA. I just think a guy like that deserves a shot — and maybe the Yanks get lucky if Laird has a nice couple of weeks. Then suddenly you have another major league asset. Keeping him in AAA at this point does nobody any good. Of course, if Laird fails, you pull the plug. But at least he should be an average defender, so he should be better than Nunez and Nix in that respect.
My descending order of preference among the four internal options I suggest: Mustelier, Nunez, Russo, Laird. Truth be told, the guy I may like best of all is David Adams — though he has not played third, to my knowledge.
He’s actually not 24, he turned 25 in June and therefore he was actually 24 last year for most of the summer. It’s not like he hasn’t had his fair share of time to prove something in AAA, he simply hasn’t done it. In 2010 he hit .246/.268/.344 in 31 games in AAA, in 2011 he hit .260/.288/.422 in 123 games in AAA, and this year he is hitting .247/.307/.403 in 101 games. To me this is a pattern, not a player simply being young and showing improvement. He’s a low average, low OBP, OK power guy with enough holes that AAA pitchers are exploiting him. I just don’t see any reason to expect anything other than a downgrade at the next level. If you want to bring him up and try and catch lightning in a bottle for a week or two before he gets exploited that’s fine, but he hasn’t really earned the call up looking at the numbers. I also don’t really see the point of calling him up if he’s just going to be a decent defender at third, Chavez can do that better than Laird.
When was the last time Russo played 3B? A Ball?
I love it when people tell me– invariably with great self-confidence — that I’m wrong. I tend to blame myself and accept what they say.
But no, I am not wrong. It turns out that Brandon Laird is indeed 24 this year. Won’t turn 25 til September. So he was indeed 23 last year etc etc.
T.O. Chris — I ask you to please reconsider your aggressive tone when you are disputing someone else — you may, as in this case, be wrong. Here’s link with Laird DOB
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandon_Laird
Where was there an aggressive tone? If you read anything I wrote, or write in the future, in an aggressive tone it is your own incorrect inference of the tone in which I write. I assure you I was simply responding to what you wrote with information I had, in this instance the DOB I had was wrong and I accept that. I simply don’t try and write things in a way as to coddle someone elses feelings. This may come across as “aggressive” but it is not intended to be such.
I was wrong, I saw his Birthday as written as June 15th 1987. I shouldn’t have taken the one source as gospel without checking others first. That is my fault for going with the first source.
While this may allow me to give him a slightly bigger break, I still don’t see him as much more than a AAAA bat. Someone who is good enough for AAA but isn’t MLB material. I may be wrong, everyone’s opinions can in fact be wrong, but it is my opinion and I do have what I believe to be enough facts to back it up.
Bottom line – you are 100% correct about T.O.
Seriously man if you have a problem with me just don’t write to me it’s really that simple. If you don’t stop trying to passive aggresively pick fights. I really don’t get the obsession you have with me, even talking about me on other sites I don’t even write on. It’s odd.
Also, TOC, you asked:
“When was the last time Russo played 3B? A ball?
Interesting construction here. Am I wrong to detect an implied put-down? How could I suggest Russo to play third when he probably hasn’t done so since A Ball. Foolish me.
But again, it turns out that T.O. Chris has pitifully misplaced self-confidence.
It’s not just that Russo has played 3B this year in AAA. He’s actually played it at the major league level– for the Yankees, no less, in 2010. If memory serves, 16 games. Link showing his fairly extensive MiLB 3B experience below.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=russo-001kev
My point is simply this. Please treat your fellow posters with a modicum of respect. And when you dispute what they say, be sure of your own facts. We all make mistakes but a little humility goes a long way.
I was actually asking when was the last time Russo played 3B because I had no idea… I know he is not a 3rd baseman by trade and didn’t know when he had last taken the field at 3rd. Seems you have an issue with inferring tone.
OK, TOC, thanks for the replies. Appreciate the more subdued tone. Sometimes posts directed at other people come across as belligerent — perhaps because people are writing to strangers. In any case, I thank you for the explanations.
I honestly don’t feel these replies were written in any different tone than the original replies. I do however appreciate that the written word does leave a lot to be desired when it comes to interpreting intent. I have had similar problems in the past with misinterpreting someone elses tone when in comment form, I now try to read every post in the exact same mellow tone. It allows the words to come across much closer to the authors actual intent.
I’m sorry if you read any offense into what I wrote, as I explained it was never the intent. I hope to exchange ideas with you again in the future.
Sounds good…