With the MLB draft upcoming, I thought this would be a good time to think a bit about the uncertainty of the draft, and how so many other factors come into play other than just the player’s talent. In particular, I wanted to focus on 2 interesting years, 1992 and 2009, to see how wonderful and frustrating the draft can be.
It was 20 years ago to the day that the Yankees selected , then a skinny high school shortstop from Kalamazoo, in the 1st round of the 1992 MLB draft (#6 overall). This proved to be a franchise-altering move, giving the Yankees a major impact player at a premium position , a franchise icon who led the team to 5 World Series wins (and counting), and a future Hall of Fame inductee. The Yankees certainly have no regrets about the selection, and the 5 teams who passed on Jeter (for the likes of , , BJ Wallace, Jeffrey Hammonds, and )) would certainly love a mulligan.
Joel Sherman has a great article today revisiting Draft Day 1992, describing the unlikely series of events that allowed Jeter to wind up a Yankee. According to Sherman, the Yankees had Jeter at the top of their draft board, and did not think that they had anything more than a slim chance of landing him. However, a combination of factors, including several teams not wanting to spend the money required to buy Jeter out of his commitment to the University of Michigan (you can thank Scott Boras, Brien Taylor, and Todd Van Poppel for the rapid rise in bonuses), an ankle injury during his senior year, and several teams preferring to draft players from college allowed Jeter to slip to #6.
When Mottola’s name was announced at #5 and the Yankees were on the clock at #6, there was celebration in the Yankee draft room. There was not much discussion about the pick. Scout Bill Groch summed up the Yankees’ opinions on Jeter, and the likelihood of him signing, when he said to the Yankees’ scouting director: “He’s not going to Michigan…he’s going to Cooperstown.” 20 years later, Jeter is well on his way to proving Groch correct.
The close call with Jeter is somewhat reminiscent of a more recent situation where a player they were absolutely in love with was sliding down the board. Unfortunately, in 2009, the Yankees were not as fortunate, as bowtie enthusiast Ken Rosenthal noted in an interesting post from a few weeks ago. 2009 was the year in which was the undisputed #1 pick, and was considered a strong #2 selection. After those two picks there was a lot of uncertainty, some surprising reaches (Tony Sanchez at #4, Matt Hobgood at #5), and the player that the Yankees had #2 on their draft board, New Jersey high school outfielder , was slipping well beyond that range.
While the Yankees were enamored with Trout, Rosenthal writes, other teams passed him over in large part because he was from New Jersey, where the level of baseball competition was not especially high (compared to warm-weather hotbeds like Florida, Texas, and California). The absolute failure of Jersey native Billy Rowell might have been held against Trout, Rosental wrote. Because Trout was fairly local for the Yankees, they were able to see much more of him than most other teams, and even had him come to Yankee Stadium for a private workout.
Unfortunately, the Yankees were not the only team who loved Trout, as the Angels took him with the 25th pick in the draft (after taking HS outfielder Randall Grichuk at #24). The Angels had a connection with Trout as well, as their local scouting director was a former teammate of Trout’s father. This caused him to pay more attention to his son. This was even more frustrating for the Yankees because #25 used to be the Yankees’ pick, but it was given to the Angels as compensation for . Instead of Trout the Yankees ended up with Slade Heathcott at #29 (the only Yankee 1st-rounder I have ever accurately predicted) . Slade was also a very toolsy high school outfielder, but with injury and makeup concerns that Trout didn’t have.
Of course, the Yankees were happy to have Teixeira, and the World Series ring that he helped the Yankees win that season. But seeing what Trout was able to do against the Yankees at the tender age of 20 will always prompt thoughts of what could have been. It is encouraging to know that the Yankees’ scouting department was right about Trout, even if they were unable to land him in the draft. If we were to re-do the 2009 draft knowing what we know now, Trout would go significantly higher than he did. I’d probably put him at #2, but a case could be made for ranking him ahead of Strasburg.
It was interesting to take a look back and see how the Yankees were able to land their franchise superstar in the draft thank to a little bit of luck, and how they just missed landing a player who looks like another one years later. It definitely speaks to the unpredictability of the draft, and the significant information asymmetries that exist with regard to scouting, even in this day and age. If other teams saw as much of Trout as the Yankees and Angels did, he likely would have wound up being drafted much higher than #25.
The Yankees have certainly had their share of failures and misevaluations in the draft, but it is nice to know that they were bullish on both Jeter and Trout (assuming they weren’t just Monday morning quarterbacking). They had a more accurate evaluation of Trout than did Baseball America (who had him at #22), Keith Law (#26), and Kevin Goldstein (#16), so keep that in mind for next time the Yankees make a pick that these experts disagree with.
Hopefully in the 2012 draft, the Yankees will have a player that they love available at their selection. It may be a little less likely because of the new restrictions on bonuses, but the possibility of information asymmetries remains. We’ll be taking a look at some possible targets over the course of the weekend, and providing some awesome coverage of the draft, which begins on Monday night.
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Great article. I don’t follow the draft as closely as others, but those were some great stories.
Thanks. I’m very interested in what goes on behind the scenes of the draft and how teams evaluate players, so it was great to get those two stories.
I am still licking my wounds over the Cito Culver-over-Nick Castelanos fiasco a couple of years back, so I’ve decided to adopted the “it is what it is” approach to the Yankees draft this year. I have very little faith in what they do, but then every team makes mistakes. I’ll just wait and see in three years what it looks like.
That pick is certainly not looking very good right now, though Culver it too young to write off. It’s also possible that picking Castellanos (and giving him the big bonus he wanted) would not have left enough money to sign Mason Williams. Between the two I’d rather have Williams, though certainly I think the Yankees could have afforded both.