With ‘s contract expiring at the end of the 2012 season and no obvious internal replacement, the Yankees will have a tough decision to make this offseason about whether to retain the services of their 31 year-old right fielder. On the surface, retaining Swisher seems like an easy call. He has been durable, playing 150 games/season over the last 3 years. He has been productive, putting up wRC+’s in the 120-130 range throughout his Yankee career, and averaging 27 home runs/season. He is a fan favorite and a good clubhouse presence, and at 31 should still be productive over the length of a 4-5 year contract. He has not performed up to his standards so far in 2012, though he got off to a similarly slow start last season and turned things around.
Of course, there are several factors that might prevent the Yankees from bringing Swisher back. The first is the possible $189 million payroll limit for 2014. This will require the Yankees to shed some present salary commitments while finding the room in the budget to resign to a massive deal as well as . Swisher and agent Dan Lozano will likely be looking for a raise over the $10.25 million he made this season, since he has definitely outperformed his contract during his time in pinstripes.
A second complication, which relates to the budget, is the Dodgers’ recent signing of right fielder to a 5-year $85 million extension. This deal, for a player who has a career high fWAR of 3.5 (though he looks poised to exceed that number this season), has the potential to be a market-setter in that it establishes a benchmark for a very good but not star-caliber outfielder. Of course, it is not directly comparable to a free-agent deal because there was only one team in the bidding, but it appears that the Dodgers did not get much in the way of a hometown discount. It is also not likely a price the Yankees would be willing to pay for Nick Swisher.
However, it is also likely that Swisher won’t get an Ethier-level contract on the open market. For one, Ethier is a little younger. Secondly, despite their similar overall production over the past 3 years (Ethier is slightly ahead in offense, but worse in defense if we go by UZR) Swisher is in the middle of a sub-par season (wRC+ of 105) while Ethier is having a career year. The perception of trajectory is important for valuation of a player, to determine whether a team is signing a player in decline or a rising star. Ethier also seems to have the perception of being a star player that Swisher has never had. This is probably because Ethier is one of two good hitters on a Dodgers team that has been mediocre, while Swisher has been a solid performer in a star-studded Yankee lineup.
How Swisher finishes the 2012 season will likely play a big role in determining his free agent worth. I think there is virtually no chance he gets Ethier money. However, if he can get his production up into his usual 120-130 wRC+ range, I think a 4-5 year deal worth 13-15 million/year is certainly reasonable. However, if he continues his current level of production, he may have to drop his pricetag somewhat, perhaps to the $11-12 million range.
Even with Ethier off the market, Swisher will not be the top outfielder available. will be the biggest name (and get the biggest contract), and there are other intriguing options such as (say what?), BJ Upton, , and . As a pure right field option, Swisher is probably competing with Cabrera (if he finishes strong) for the top option, with Swisher offering more consistency while Cabrera offers more youth and possible upside.
If Swisher prices himself out of the Yankees’ range, Cabrera would present an intriguing alternative. He is having an insane season right now (.364/.403/.531), and while he probably won’t remain at that level, he did post an OPS over .800 in 2011, and at age 27, could just be entering his prime. However, Melky too could get pricey if he continues to perform this well. Upton could work for the Yankees, though he probably has more value to a team that would use him as a centerfielder (same with Bourne or Victorino), and might get costly. Quentin could be a lower-cost alternative, though durability is a major concern.
In summary, the Yankees’ ability to keep Nick Swisher will depend on two factors: how much room in the budget they are willing to allot for an outfielder, and how Swisher ends the season. A subpar 2012 will likely keep Swisher’s value within the Yankee budget range, and I imagine there would be mutual interest in his return. However, if he finishes strong and his pricetag escalates to the $15 million/year, the Yankees may wind up having to explore cheaper alternatives. Of course, we can always hope that Swisher, who seems to love playing for the Yankees, will take a bit of a discount to stay. But to expect that to happen in this day and age seems unlikely, since it may very well be Swisher’s last chance to cash in on a big free agent contract.
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If they let him walk and dont sign and equal or better player, we will know they are serious about that $189. That will really be a wake up call for us fans, as the Yankees have never downgraded the team do to money issues. I personally think they will resign him, as I’m not ready to live in that reality yet.
There is one simple fact that we have to accept as fans of the “New Yankees”, Hal Steinbrenner is not his father. George had many flaws, wasn’t the best judge of future talent, and wasn’t very patient when waiting for results, but he loved the Yankees and he loved winning above all else, money be damned. Hal is in no way any of those things. He clearly looks at the Yankees as a business, one that needs to make money or else doesn’t make sense to field the team. He wants to win, I believe that, but he isn’t the win at all costs owner his father was. George was never happy unless the Yankees won the WS. I think Hal would be perfectly happy making the playoffs every year, occasionally threatening to win it all, but falling short year after year as long as he is making the necessary amount of profit he deems fit.
Because of this I believe that Swisher and Martin will be gone at seasons end and Austin Romine and and an Andruw Jones like cheap player will take their places. I think Cano is someone the organization looks at as a necessary evil to re-sign, so he will be back. I believe they want to bring back Granderson because not only is he good on the field but he is also a great face for the game. But I wouldn’t expect any big splashes this offseason. Cole Hamels is a pipe dream, one we can’t afford under this regime, and Swisher is a luxury the “New Yankees” simply won’t pay for going forward. This sucks as fans of a team that has known no spending limit, but it’s our new reality.
The Ethier deal is awful, there is no reason a 30 year old with his kind of L/R splits, and career numbers, should ever get 5 years at 17 million per. It won’t payoff, and they will likely regret it within 2 and a half to 3 years. However for the Dodgers and their new owners it makes sense, they want to show the fans they plan on keeping the good players they have and adding new players to strengthen their core. I personally think they could have done better, but I understand it. I actually think Swisher will be the better player in the next 4 years, but neither one deserves 85 million for being good, but average overall players in RF.
Well said. Swisher might end up fitting in the Yankees’ budget if he keeps performing at his current level, but if he wants anything near Ethier money he’s probably gone.
Like the poster above alluded to, it’s anathema to give a 30 yr old player a long term contract unless he’s a bonafide All-Star, which Swisher isn’t. He barely made the All-Star team in 2010.
The Yankees are already saddled with A-Rod (through 2018, age 42) and Tex (through 2017, age 37) turning gray at the corner infield positions. The front office will extend either Cano or Granderson (maybe both) through their mid 30′s.
It’s absolutely imperative that the Yankees get younger position players. The only regular they have under 30 is Brett Gardner, and he’s already 28.
The only genuine non-pitching prospects we have in the pipeline are Mason Williams and Gaby Sanchez, and they are 3-5 years away. There are really no other position players I see breaking through the ranks soon.
So unless the Yanks trade young arms for young position players, they are left shopping free agency and the options for younger players are limited next summer. I think Melky could excel in New Yankee Stadium, but I like Michael Bourn a lot more.
Bourn is likely to make his second AS appearance this year and has two Gold Gloves on his mantle (surprisingly Gardner and Grandy have none combined).
As far as the self imposed 189 payroll cap, I think it’s hogwash. The front office should break the bank for Cole Hamels or Zack Greinke first chance they get.
Pitching wins, period. If you can sign them, get the contract done. You can then trade off existing contracts to balance the budget afterwards. Soriano and Granderson are slated to make a combined 27 million in 2013, salary that can be allocated to an ace and other pieces.
Soriano and Grandy can bring back some very good young position prospects who we can restock our AA and AAA teams with. Maybe a couple even break camp with the big club next spring.
We need to start making moves to get younger asap or we are going to get lapped by younger legs by 2014. The American League is littered with blossoming stars and none of them are on the Yankees.
So you preach getting younger but also want to “break the bank” for a pitcher who will be 29 before he throws a pitch next season? That would require locking up Hamels through his age 36 season, not exactly young, as about 4 years of the contract will come after his prime is over.
How will Soriano bring back young prospects? He’s been a 7th inning guy for most of his career as a Yankee, and while I love the work he’s doing right now as our closer his 1.48 WHIP and 84.9% LOB% suggest he’s doing it with quite a bit of luck. He’s also 32 and will be 33 before he throws a pitch next season. I fully believe that if he finishes out this season as closer he will opt out of his contract in order to get one final multiple year deal, as even if he only gets a 2 year deal for a tiny bit more than what he’d make next season it’d be worth it in a world of guaranteed contracts.
I’ve personally been in the “pick up Granderson’s option and trade him” camp for a while now, however he won’t be bringing back a ton of prospects going into his age 32 season with 1 year left on his deal. I think the best you could do with Granderson is trade him 1-1 for a younger player who’s already in the major leagues. Teams just aren’t looking to trade multiple top prospects (which is what it would take to justify trading him for only prospects) for a 32 year old, pure power hitting LFer (he shouldn’t be playing CF anymore), with one year left on his deal.
We’re pretty much stuck with the team we have going forward, there is no trade we can make that’s going to bring in a bunch of top prospects, and there is no way we can shed enough salary to make a big splash movie like Hamels work. There is no quick solution to what we’ve done, we’re going to have to ride out these contracts and re-stock like after the 2008 season.
In spite of the constant Small Sample Size rant, if Swisher tanks again in the post season, which he has done every year, his value will go down considerably. His excitable and over the top personality does not fare well under playoff pressure. He also has a horrible arm and runs with a Kelvinator on his back. He’s overpriced already.
I’m sorry but the idea that Nick Swisher is overpriced at 9-10 million is ludicrous. He may not be worth 15+ per year, he isn’t, but at 9-10 you aren’t going to find a better overall player to play RF.
Also the idea that it’s his personality causing him to struggle in the postseason is also ludicrous. Plenty of players have behaved the same way and come up big in the playoffs, I think we often make too much of the ultimate small sample sizes that are the playoffs. Since when has anyone’s baseball career been decided by 10-15 ABs as a time against some of the best pitchers in baseball?