Like this ball, Phil's Yankee future very much up in the air
After Phil Hughes’ disastrous 2011 campaign, I don’t think one could overstate how pivotal the 2012 season will be for him and his Yankee future. He’s under team control for this year and next, scheduled to become a free agent after the 2013 season. Given his spotty track record in terms of health and effectiveness, it’s difficult to imagine the Yanks locking him up to a long term deal before his contract expires, which is a practice they’ve rarely employed for any players (exc Robinson Cano) particularly pitchers. A big performance in 2012 will go a long way towards deciding what his payday will look like and where he will be cashing his checks.
Phil had a good spring training, easily winning the “battle” for a rotation spot. He’s really only had one successful season as a Yankee starter, posting an 18-8 record in 2010 where he received huge run support and tailed off significantly in the 2nd half. Though it seems like he’s been around forever (and he has) he’s still just 26 years old and you have to think his best years are ahead of him. Last year was hopefully an aberration caused by the increased workload in 2010 and coming into camp out of shape. Though for me, I must admit quotes like this where he talks about having more of a ‘relievers mentality’ this year rub me the wrong way. I’ve long felt his downfall in the bigs has come down to being all too predictable, that he would benefit from changing speeds and doesn’t have the stuff to say ‘here it is, hit it’ at this level, the way he did in the minors. Maturity, in other words. There has been the annual talk of him adding the change up again this year, now let’s see if he actually uses it in game situations. This is a season where, if he gets off to a bad start like he did in 2011, he will risk losing his spot in the rotation to either Andy Pettitte or Michael Pineda and could very well find himself non-tendered by the end of the year. I’m not optimistic on Phil, I think his batted ball profile is a poor fit for Yankee Stadium and his best use would be to reestablish some trade value and deal him. But I hope to be proven wrong on that, I’ve followed him since the day he was drafted and you always want the home grown players to succeed. My heart says one thing and my head something very different on Mr Hughes.
Here’s your lineup, courtesy of Chad over at LoHud:
Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Robinson Cano 2B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Mark Teixeira 1B
Nick Swisher DH
Raul Ibanez RF
Brett Gardner LF
Chris Stewart C
RHP Phil Hughes
Looks like Alex won’t get that rumored ‘back to back on turf’ day off today after all. Chris Stewart gets the start at Catcher, make sure you check out the link on him below. Today’s game will be broadcast nationally on TBS and MLBTV, so look for it there. With game coverage another 30 minutes away, here’s some links for you guys to kick around while you’re waiting for 1st pitch:
-Must read piece by Marc Carig explaining why the Yanks were so hot for Chris Stewart, giving up a useful arm in Kontos and sending their popular back up Catcher to AAA. It has to do with Mike Fast’s groundbreaking work on pitch framing, which the article explains in detail.
-Marc Simon with some nice tidbits for today’s game. To summarize, Phil should pitch around Luke Scott and go after Ben Zobrist.
-Ozzie Guillen said something stupid? Wonders never cease.
-Watch 2nd base around the 25 second mark. I don’t care where this happens, stuff like this should get you arrested. If you did that on the street you’d be locked up, and rightfully so.
-via our buddies over at RAB, Michael Pineda is scheduled to do 3 days of long toss this week, which is the next step before getting back out on a mound for him. If you missed it, Mike Axisa had a timeline yesterday that explained why Pineda was behind schedule this spring, through no fault of his own, mostly relating to the timing of the trade.
Last but certainly not least, Happy Easter and Passover to all of our readers who celebrate those holidays, and happy first Sunday of Yankee baseball to everyone else. Thanks as always for reading and for making this the fun, special place that it is.
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Happy Easter everyone. Phil Hughes will begin his Cy Young/Comeback player of the year season today.
Pitching around half his games at Yankee Stadium will make sure Hughes is never in a Cy Young conversation, he simply doesn’t, and never will, fit that park.
That RAB piece was really an eye-opener. Turns out Pineda was 3 weeks behind his usual schedule due to the trade. And Carig really knocked it out of the park with the Stewart piece. Nice to see the Yanks on top of cutting edge SABR stuff.
If you’re one of those folks who think Catcher defense doesn’t matter, or is mostly about controlling the running game, check it out. As the article says, stealing strikes can be the difference between a batter walking to 1B or to the dugout. Outcomes change dramatically based on the count.
I just want to plead: Phil had a good fastball his last spring start, but not much curve yet, and hardly a changeup. If he doesn’t have secondary weapons today, they will wear him out.
I don’t think its about having good secondary stuff for Hughes, instead its all about the fastball. Last start it was a strikeout pitch, but you can’t rely on that. My theory is that he had so much trouble getting swings and misses on the curve last year because his fastball wasn’t setting it up.
I’ve said it for a couple of years now, his biggest problem is his fastball control within the zone. People look at his BB/9 numbers and thinks he has good command, the truth is he doesn’t. He can get the ball into the zone and limit walks, but his ability to hit his spots within the zone has always been really spotty. In the bullpen this was covered up by extra velocity allowing him to blow mistakes by people. As a starter he has to put all his focus on hittingh spots, velocity, curve control, and developing a change are all much less important than his control within the zone of the fastball.
yeah, I guess spotting a good fastball around is probably 3/4 of his good gme. But for more than a couple innings, there’s gotta be some guessing going on.
The thing about good control on a 4 seam is that you make 1 pitch 4 different pitches. If you accurately throw to four different zones, up and in, down and in, up and away, and down and away, you have added to your repetoire without having to add a pitch. Any starter will tell you havingh great command on a fastball is more important than blowing it by guys, or tricking guys with offspeed stuff. You could be a really good starter with 2 pitches if the fastball control was good enough, the problem is most people don’t have that kind of control.
Hughes throwing 94 in the first. Damn.
Looks like two change ups already as well, not well located but thrown with confidence.
Johnny Damon woulda made that play.
Actually he wouldn’t have since he hasn’t played RF since 2007 and hasn’t played more than 5 games in RF since 1998.
Oh I was being Sarcastic. Everytime someone spites Cashman for not resigning Damon, and Angel gets its wings.
I kind of figured. It actually surprised me he’s played RF, I was going to say “because he’s never played RF”. Turns out he played RF quite a bit as a Royal, which makes no sense at all with his arm. I’m actually surprised he got even a few games with the Yankees in RF.
This official scorer didn’t give Ibanez an error? He refused to give Longoria an error in the first game too.
If we are picking teams to start a league and I gave you the choice of Hughes, Hellickson, Nova, and Pineda right now who do you take? If you say Pineda (which you should) who do you take of the other 3?
Hughes probably has the best stuff, then Hellickson, then Nova.
Based on pure stuff Hughes does win, but I think it’s a pretty tough choice between Hughes and Hellickson because I think Hellickson is probably further along as a pitcher. I don’t like that neither gets ground balls, Hughes will probably be more overpower but neither is an 8+ K/9 guy, but I like Hellickson’s change a lot. I might take Hellickson based just on the good change-fastball combo, that can win you a lot of games.
yep, I’ll grant you Phil has to prove he can combine several aspects to win long term. Hellickson has already proven his aptitude.
I don’t think either has proven much at the big league level yet, neither one has 2 full seasons as a starter under their belts. I actually thought Pineda should have won ROY, Hellickson was a little lucky. I think at this point though I’d rather go with Hellickson’s change-fastball combo over Hughes’ mini power pitcher game plan. I just think Hellickson has the better starting point.
yay! Phil revved his engine a bit. He was trying not to be too amped the 1st inning.
Cone always giving Hughes too much credit for missing his spots badly. He missed way up on a pitch that’s suppose to be down, just because it got a swing and miss doesn’t mean it was executed. I’ve seen at least 4 changes so far, he’s catching them off guard with it but the control is pretty bad on it.
Fielders are positioned perfectly. Shocking.
Phil’s got them swinging under it pretty good, since the first.
He’s missing up too much though with the fastball. I always want a pitcher to miss down into the dirt, not up, but Hughes’ game just doesn’t lend itself to missing down with the fastball.
I admitI haven’t been tracking the catcher’s trget, but Phil gets a rise on his fb that requires him to go to the hands or higher.
Howsomever, Pena swung ON that high one.
All pitchers are capable of pitching to the bottom of the zone, they just have to be able to get it down. He could throw more 2-seamers if he wanted, but I’m not talking about that. He just misses up from the target most of the time when he missess. If you call for a ball down and away to a RHB and you miss up some it’s a meat ball.
Yeah, he can hit four corners. Later, after work on the cutter, he can excel there, but I meant right now, the rising fb is his strength.
Gravy on it?
He really doesn’t hit all 4 corners very well, he’s pretty innacurate at hitting spots a good deal of the time. He’s been pretty good in this game, but when he missess he still missess up, that’s not a strength. Throwing a fastball up above the zone for strikeouts is a strength, missing up on all spots isn’t.
Thought Tex hit that out. Damn.
Hey, a Yankee threat!
Boy, I thought Tex had that one out.
C’mon, Swish!
Hellickson hit that spot on the fastball inside really well, good pitch.
Classic Hellickson living by the skin of his teeth.
Drat, foiled again. It’s tough to swallow, Tex’s double tha almost made it out! and, nothin’.
When Upton comes back that LF-CF combo is going to cover a TON of ground in the outfield.
yeah, and if BJ finds his hitting potential, the Rays become scary.
The Yankees need a gluten-free official ice cream.
does gluten make it bad? what is the risk of gluten?
Gluten–which is the thing in wheat that makes it sticky–is no problem if you’re not allergic to it. Unfortunately, I am. I’m not all that sensitive, and I eat it on occasion but I try to stay away from it.
what grisly chage does it work on you, if you were sensistive?
I get digestive symptoms that one does not discuss in public. They’re not overwhelming. I didn’t even find out about it until I was 40, so for years I just thought I had a bad stomach. On the other hand, there are people who say they have to be taken to the hospital if their french fries are fried in oil that previously had onion rings in it. I also know of someone who says her growth was stunted because gluten allergy interfered with her ability to properly digest and absorb some nutrients when she was a baby.
The biggest problem really is that I have to eat gluten-free bread, which sucks.
I bet, nothing like good bread.
My problem is gin.
Not really, but I saw a guy on tv drinking a gin & tonic, thought that would be good, been a long time. Bought a bottle, some limes and tonic. Biggest bellyache I’ve had in a coon’s age. (however long that is.)
Three-hit shutouts against the Yankees make me sick to my stomach, too.
Luke Scott is such a likable guy, I hope he’s not too injured.
he reminds me of Damon. Think they were referring to him when they said a “slight hamstring strain.”
Effective curve to get Keppinger. Not scary, kinda tempting, but enough shit on it to draw the bouncer.
That was a good change up, and he’s done a good job of keeping the curve at the bottom and below the zone. Thrown too many pitches overall though and he seems to be wearingh down some.
Vincente Padilla is pitching for the Red Sox. This is gonna be fun to watch.
Someone needs to hit Pena, get him off the plate.
They need to move his feet yes, not sure if Hughes can do that though. I don’t recall him moving too many guys off the plate on purpose before.
Looks like thats it for Hughes’ day.
Looks like that was the first hanging change that really bit him, let’s see if he continues to throw it. Looked like the fan reached way out though.
Woah! That curve didn’t fool Longo too much. Foul by an inch.
Whew, that was about as good as I woulda hoped for, out of Phil. Though it SHOULDA been 2 – 2. (If only…)
Not an awful start for Hughes, he’s got some stuff to work on but he at least looks better than last year. He seemed to lose the 93-94 after the third inning though, he had a similar problem when he came off the DL last year. I’d like to know the exact number of changeups he threw, seemed like as many or more than I’ve ever seen him throw in one game.
Hope he gets the hang of it. His curve looks good sometimes, but not others. His cutter doesn’t move sufficiently, except in his strong bullpen perid and the 1st half 2010. When his rise was really working, so was his cutter.
Nice double from Arod. Tex hit the last few balls really hard. Lets tie this game.
He seems to be hitting the ball well, but not getting the results.
They just forgot all about Alex at third.
Beautiful hit by Alex. Said it was a change, and he hits the wall, like Tex (plus 60′) on a changeup. Have to supply your own power.
Well at least David Cone is having a good game. He’s calling everything.
yeah, I love his words on pitching. So glad he’s back.
I think Cone is the best of the entire YES family. He’s got everything you want from a former player in the booth, he’s also comes off really likeable from all the stories I’ve heard about him from players.
Well, ellickson can move his SHOULDERS! Really buzzed Swish. FB away, good bye.
Despite the BB/9 numbers I think Hellickson has better control on the fastball. Hughes throws into the zone more it seems but Hellickson’s location is beautiful, he’s either throwingh right to the spot or off the plate by a few inches.
he’s definitely a maestro-in-training.
Looked a little low but great 3-2 pitch by Logan.
I would’ve left Logan in as well, he’s pitched great since being in the game and you don’t expect that from Kepp.
With Molina behind him, I think you can get Wade in the game, especially with him warming. Still, not the worst decision.
I might have if it was 1 out, with 2 outs though I was thinking of trying to get through the 6th with Logan, then come back with either Wade or Soriano in the 7th.
You’d almost be better off pinch hitting a RHB, a lefty just plays into what he wants to do with that change. Though he’s pretty comfortable throwing it to either side, so I guess it was probably just a feel thing.
Beautiful tones in that plain, broadway style, simple american, pure God Bless America.
Uhm, what the hell was Pena thinking bunting 0-2.
Michael Kay says Pena trying to bunt with two strikes, a guy who could put it in the seats, he “just don’t get that.” Pena says, I got a swing, you saying I can’t try to get on if I think it’s the best bet? Maybe I just don’t feel homerish.
So the Paul O’Neil theory really didn’t play out.
I think we’re going to see Hellickson around for a long time, he has a really advanced understanding of how to pitch. He also really understands to pitch with the stuff he has, he almost plays with the hitters.
Wade has looked great in both his games this year. If he remains effective, and Soriano regains his normal healthy form, we should be a lock for best bullpen in baseball.
4 intentional walks in 3 games thus far. Ugh.
So they intentionally walk Zobrist, only to bring in Phelps? Thats even worse.
Nice hook!
great bunny hop curve balls by Phelps, to start and finish him.
Tex shoulda gone to left with that, rather than rolling it over.
Needs to.
This is the best game I’ve seen Hellickson pitch, he really dominated a good lineup.