Derek Jeter is off to a hot start. Will it last?

By On April 16, 2012 · 5 Comments · In Player Analysis

Nice swing Derek. Lefty on the mound?

So far this season is looking like a young man again. Through eight games he’s batting .361/.395/.528, good for a .386 wOBA. He certainly won’t maintain this pace, but after getting off to a horribly slow start last season it’s nice to see the Captain doing some damage in April. The question then becomes, can Derek keep it up? Is the fast start legit, or will Derek fade the way he did in 2010?

Digging just a little bit into the numbers, Derek’s hot start doesn’t look sustainable. The Yankees have faced an improbably high number of left handed starters so far in 2012. One thing Jeter has always done is clobber left handed pitching. For his career he’s a .400 wOBA hitter against lefties. In his first eight games of the year Jeter has seen a southpaw on the mound for five of them. He’s responded accordingly. Derek has an other-worldly .617 wOBA against lefties in 2012. Against righties, however, Jeter has a middling .272 wOBA. That’s bad, really bad, and certainly not what he’s done for his career. In his career against righties Jeter has a .344 wOBA.

The baseball starved masses (I count myself among them) jump all over stats at the start of the season because it’s the first opportunity we have to jump all over stats. While it’s refreshing to see Derek get off to such a healthy start, his numbers won’t last if he can’t hit right handed pitching. Fortunately, the same logic applies. Just as it’s way too early in the season to be excited about Derek’s hot hitting it is equally too early to be concerned about that awful .272 wOBA against righties. Derek’s true 2012 numbers have yet to show themselves.

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5 Responses to Derek Jeter is off to a hot start. Will it last?

  1. A.F. says:
    April 16, 2012 at 2:45 pm

    Excellent analysis – right on target!

    Reply
  2. A.O. says:
    April 16, 2012 at 3:11 pm

    OK, last night he was 1-2 against Williams, a righty, with a double, 1-1 against Takahashi, a lefty, with a homer. His last two at bats he made outs against righties, but one of those was a ball absolutley crushed, but into the deepest part of the stadium.

    I think what this all means is that he’s a great player, playing well, and it’s WAY to early to draw any conclusions. I also think 2010 is a year to forget about, with the 3,000 hit pressure, and the injury.

    Let’s just relax and watch it unfold. Though — if I was betting, I’d be betting ON Jeter, not against him…

    Reply
  3. Roundabout says:
    April 16, 2012 at 5:21 pm

    The new thing in baseball is over-analyzing statistics. Those stat-meisters who are questioning Jeter’s fast start and saying he can’t maintain the pace are the likely the same people who predicted his career as an all-star was over during the second half of 2010 into the first half of 2011. Well, maybe, Jeter has adjusted and continues to hit the ball hard from the second half of 2011, which the sabermetric geeks can’t explain away. People into all these sabermetrics and fielding metrics just don’t like to be viewed as fallible. And Jeter loves to prove those people wrong.

    Reply
  4. oldyankee7 says:
    April 16, 2012 at 7:03 pm

    Mike…
    Very well done, Jeters numbers will be around .270-.280 at seasons end. His days of .320+ are long over. He should have days/weeks where he is outstanding other days/weeks…not so much!
    Sorry to say, if Nunez keeps hitting as he is and Jeter fades again…I would put Nunez in there more.

    Reply
  5. bpdelia says:
    April 16, 2012 at 10:09 pm

    I really don’t care if hr hits 320. Hes looking more spritely in the field and has looked balanced at the plate. I am a big jeter doubter in general but i’m pretty confident. The power is the reason i’m confident. I can easily see 289\345 with 12 hrs and 15 sb. That would be wildly beyond my most optimistic assumptions on may 1st of 2011.

    I remain extremely happy with this team. Eagerly awaiting pineda because he, to me, remains the difference between a good team and a juggernaut.

    Reply

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