At What Point Do You Cut Bait on Phil Hughes?

By On April 23, 2012 · 8 Comments · In Roster Decisions

will probably make his major league debut something in the next two weeks. Unless something radically changes, he will take ‘s spot in the rotation. Freddy, for his part, has been making this a pretty easy decision for the Yankees. Its made further easier because Garcia is 35 years old, and on a one-year contract. The Yankees don’t really lose anything long term by cutting him.

Had not suffered a set back, the decision to pull from the rotation would be just as easy. Pineda is clearly a better long term option in the starting rotation than Hughes at this point in their careers, and it makes no sense for him to pitch in the minor leagues. With Nova, Pettitte, Sabathia, and Kuroda entrenched in their rotation spots, Hughes gets bumped by default.

Without Michael Pineda, who at this point risks being out a very long time with shoulder problems, the decision is a little bit harder. offers an effective option at starting pitcher. Phil Hughes, while he has maintained a great 10.1 K/9 rate, has been hit around pretty terribly this season. He has allowed 14 runs (10 earned) in 13 1/3 innings. He’s had trouble finishing off batters, and has had a tendency to leave pitches up, leading to home runs and hard hits.

I’m generally in favor of acting quickly on roster decisions. At this point, what is the difference that we can expect in performance between Phil Hughes, even if things go reasonably well for him, and David Phelps? I’ve lost hope that Hughes will be a star one day. I think he’s got a shot at being a decent option in the back end of the rotation, but so does Phelps. And Phelps is not currently suffering from all the problems that Hughes is. He’s been an effective pitcher in long stints, and should be able to transition seamlessly.

All of that said, Hughes’ strikeout rate encourages me. The eye test tells me that he’s mixing his pitches more than previous years, and has been better at challenging batters. This has resulted in a lot of pitches being left in bad parts of the zone, but it is an improvement over last year. I think he deserves a few more starts in order to try and right the ship.

How long should Phil Hughes get? I’m going to say that the Yankees should switch him with David Phelps at the same time that Andy Pettitte comes in. That should give him 2 or 3 more starts to figure things out. Otherwise, David Phelps is your 5th starter until the return of Michael Pineda.

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8 Responses to At What Point Do You Cut Bait on Phil Hughes?

  1. Phil C says:
    April 23, 2012 at 2:55 pm

    I have always hoped that Hughes would turn into the type of pitcher he has been hyped to be, but at this point I too have lost faith in him. There is no way he should be pitching in Texas, it should be Nova. Since he is scheduled to start, unless he dominates, he should go to the pen immediately after that.

    What concerns more that Hughes and his individual performance as a starter is the Yankees’ development and evaluation of pitchers. They thought Hughes and Joba were better than Kennedy. It now appears that at the very least Betances and possibly Banuelos were significantly over rated. And whether they failed to notice something from last season or they were too slow to react in the spring, something went wrong with Pineda. And it appears that no one in the organization expected Nova to perform as he has.

    I know that pitching can be a real crap shot, but I am beginning to think that there is something within the Yankee organization that is lacking. With the way in which the new CBA will require more development from within, I am hoping that I am just be an alarmist — especially regarding Banuelos.

    Reply
  2. roadrider says:
    April 23, 2012 at 2:55 pm

    Let’s not jump the gun here. Hughes has to do better – that’s clear. But he’s really only been bad in one of his starts this season. In his first start he was more inefficient than bad. The second start, against the Angels was bad. His last start, if he hadn’t been sabotaged by his manager (playing Nunez at 2B, the shift on Doumit), would have looked a lot better – not great, but not something that would equate with justification for his removal from the rotation. Sure, Phelps deserves a shot and if Hughes doesn’t improve he should get it. Hell, he should get it at Garcia’s expense right now!

    Reply
    • bg90027 says:
      April 23, 2012 at 3:38 pm

      That’s pretty close to how I see it. I think ideally without seeing Phelps as a starter and not really knowing with certainty what Pettite will be able to give them, they’d probably like to make the moves one at a time.

      So if Hughes continues to pitch well enough to keep the Yankees in the game for 4-5 innings and Garcia continues to be worse than Hughes, then Hughes probably makes it at least until Pettite is back. You’d have to think Garcia is on a pretty short leash now and if he has a few more 1-2 innings and out stinkers, they’d consider replacing him with Phelps even before Pettite is ready. Then, the question would be whose place would Pettite take – Hughes or Phelps. Who knows at this point but my guess is that he’ll at least last that long.

      Reply
  3. Fin says:
    April 23, 2012 at 3:39 pm

    I pretty much agree with article. There is no reason to kick Hughes out of the rotation yet, its not like a future top of the rotation starter is knocking at the door. Giving him 2 or 3 more starts shouldnt cost the Yankees anything.

    Even if Garcia continues to stink in his next couple of starts before Petite returns I dont think the Yankees will cut him. I think they will give him time in the bullpen to see if he can work it out as the long man. I think they will send Phelps down to AAA to get him regular starts and be insurance for Hughes/injuries. The long man will become less important as the season moves on and pitchers settle in. That makes Garcia’s role rather marginal and it allows Phelps to stay stretched out and get the ball every 5th day. Not to mention I dont think the Yankees are giving up on 5 million dollars after a handful of bad outings.
    Its a shame the Yankees couldnt find a trade for Garcia before the season started. I felt he wouldnt be anywhere near as good this year and wouldnt last long in the rotation. I certainly didnt think he would be this bad though.

    Reply
  4. Bryan V says:
    April 23, 2012 at 4:04 pm

    Although it seems the Yankees are at times too patient, it’s probably for the best. The Yankees are winning, so they may as well keep throwing Phil out there to be closer to 100% certain when a decision must be made with him. Face it, the team doesn’t have to make a decision on Phelps’ future anytime soon, so there’s no reason to force it now.

    Reply
  5. oldpep says:
    April 23, 2012 at 4:55 pm

    I’m glad Girardi is the one making this decision and not bloggers. The number of pitchers who turned out to be good and even great who had accomplished far less than PH has at his age is pretty high.

    Among other things that most bloggers have agreed on in the last few years is that IPK would never be a major league pitch because his stuff wasn’t even ‘AAAA’ (or similar blogspeak) and that Nova couldn’t be successful because his K rate was far too low.

    Reply
  6. Tanned Tom says:
    April 24, 2012 at 6:08 am

    If I’m making the decision I pull Hughes now. As a starter, over parts of 4 seasons, has en ERA of roughly 4.90. This player is no longer a prospect, he IS pitching at his level. He has excelled out of the pen, and so should be swapped with Phelps. You don’t trade him because of all the question marks surrounding others, but you don’t let him start except in an emergency ever again.
    And Pettitte does NOT make his debut this season , he makes his return, yes?
    Garcia is a difficult decision. They need him now, but when Pettitte is ready AND Pineda is close I think you trade him and promote someone from Scranton to be the spot starter/long reliever.
    In the best case scenario the Yanks will need 2 starters for 2014 (the financial end of days) to go with CC, Nova and Pineda. I say start blending in the younger players in 2012.

    Reply
  7. hotdog says:
    May 1, 2012 at 9:53 am

    By 2014 we will know a lot more about Betances and Banuelos. If they can put in good years at AAA, one of them might get a chance in 2013. So far, they struggled in 2011 and they’re not off to a good start. Banuelos is on the DL and Betances gives up a walk an inning as well as an increase in hits/inning. His whip has to be up there.

    Reply

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