Aiming for a $189m budget for 2014, it came as a surprise to me when Randy Levine was quoted saying the Yankees planned on keeping and past the end of their current contracts in 2013. As it stands, the team has $75m guaranteed to (38 in 2014), (33), and (34). ’s 2014 option will likely be picked up, adding an additional $5 million to the payroll for a 40 year old player. After the 2013 season, Cano and Granderson will face free agency for the first time in their careers, and both players could likely obtain contracts at or near $20 million a year. For such a skilled defensive middle infielder like Cano, the price is right, as it would be nearly impossible to replace his value at second base. For Granderson, a player two years older, on a team that has a better defensive center fielder (Gardner), the value is more easily replaceable.
Should the Yankees resign Granderson after the 2013 season?
Granderson would be 33 in his first year on a new or extended contract, an age likely past his peak years. Without Arod, Teixeira, and Sabathia’s long term contracts, it might make sense to keep Granderson around. We’re looking at a different scenario though, a team that will have five hefty annual salary contracts for players in their mid to late 30’s from 2015 to 2017. Although I wouldn’t be surprised to see either player obtain $20 million+ contracts, I’ll be incredibly optimistic about team friendly contracts and put them on four year $60 million deals.
| Player | 2014 Salary (Age) | 2015 Salary (Age) | 2016 Salary (Age) | 2017 Salary (Age) | |
| Alex Rodriguez | $27.5m (38) | $27.5m (39) | $27.5m (40) | $27.5m (41) | |
| CC Sabathia | $24.4m (33) | $24.4m (34) | $24.4m (35) | $5m (36) | |
| Mark Teixeira | $22.5m (34) | $22.5m (35) | $22.5m (36) | ||
| Curtis Granderson | $15m (33) | $15m (34) | $15m (35) | $15m (36) | |
| Robinson Cano | $15m (31) | $15m (32) | $15m (33) | $15m (34) | |
| Total (Age) | $104.4m (34) | $104.4m (35) | $104.4m (36) | $62.5m (37) |
As you can see, even with the team friendly contracts and without the $30 million in possible bonuses Alex Rodriguez will begin to earn, the amount of money tied up in aging players is ridiculously high. In 2015 and 2016, over $100 million will be tied up in all five players respectively averaging 35 and 36 years old. In comparison to this year, the team has eight players in the mid 30’s or later, and together they’re earning $77.5 million.
Making Cano a career Yankee is a no-doubter, but the Yankees don’t appear prepared to make the sacrifices that a budgeted team has to face. With and a decent number of outfield prospects available in the organization(Mason Williams included), adding another high salary player in his declining years is a mistake. As much as I like Curtis Granderson now, he simply doesn’t make sense for the team in the future. In 2014, the guaranteed money to the five players mentioned will likely be over $105 million, plus Arod will most likely see one of his $6 million bonuses activated that year. This leaves the team 20 spots on the 25 man roster and somewhere between $60-$70 million left on the budget. Unless there is a miracle, I’m starting to think that team will have a tough time competing in the American League East with so much money tied up in aging players.
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You might be right that the Yankees would be wise to let Granderson go after 2013. It has nothing to do with Gardner though. He is only 2 years younger than Granderson, is not that cheap anymore, and will be a free agent in 2014. I’d sooner commit long term to Granderson than Gardner. Granderson’s skills are likely to age better. Perhaps, they could look to sign Granderson to an extension now that would add 3-4 years to his contract. Then they would be looking at keeping him in pinstripes through age 35-36 which I’d be fine with. It would also (I think) have the benefit of lowering the salary used for luxury tax purposes in 2014 if it’s calculated based on average annual value. If he wouldn’t do a contract like that, then I’d probably let him go in 2014. I don’t think Gardner is the long term solution though. We can hope that Mason Williams, Ravel Santana or Slade Heathcott is but I wouldn’t want to count on it at least not without knowing how they perform the next couple of years.
As far as the budget goes, I think Cano is going to earn more than $15 million per year on his next contract. Granderson probably will too. If I were to assume you have the $104.4 correct though, they’d have $85 million left (which was enough to cover the entire payroll of half of almost the teams last year) to cover the remaining 20 players not $60-70 million. I wouldn’t be too troubled by that. I think pitching is going to be the main area the Yankees look to save money as MO retires, Soriano’s contract ends, and they replace Kuroda/Garcia types with young, cheap talent. They could also look to let Swisher/Martin go and replace with Almonte/Romine or other cheaper players.
Because of Derek Jeter’s extra $5m in his 2014 option, and Arod’s $6m bonus, $70m will be the remaining budget if both players receive $15m AAV. Its more likely that the remaining money would be $60m though, $20m AAV is much more likely.
No doubt the Pineda trade was a sign the Yankees are looking to save on young pitchers.
OK, assume it’s $60MM then to fill 19 roster spots (Jeter is the 20th and I agree that Cano is more likely to cost $20MM). The Yankees are currently spending a little under $40 million to fill 16 of those remaining roster spots. Mo, Soriano and Kuroda would put them over the $60 million. I’d assume though that they would try to fill Kuroda’s rotation spot with Banuelos, Betances or another youngster for cheap and Cashman clearly favors building the bullpen with cheap, young talent rather than expensive signings. Even with arbitration raises, there is room to keep Cano and Granderson, replace Swisher and resign or replace Martin. They probably just can’t resign both Cano and Granderson and then make another big free agent signing before 2015. I’m ok with that budgetwise, although I agree it’s questionable whether they should commit longterm to a 33 year old Granderson.
I think it’s far from questionable, I think it’s insane. I just can’t see a small power hitter, who relies on bat speed as much as he does, and strikes out as much as he does aging well. I also think his defense will be exposed as he slows down. Having a low average, constantly diminishing in power, who leads the league in Ks, left fielder who takes bad routes is a bad investment. By 34 or 35 I think Granderson is vastly different than the player he is now.
I think there will likely be a better use of the money than Granderson by 2014. I was mainly responding to the idea that they couldn’t afford him and that $60 million is not a lot of money for the remaining roster spots.
It might make more sense to sign BJ Upton in the offseason and then either move Granderson to RF and let him walk at the end of the year, or pickup his 2013 option and trade him for either a young outfielder or young starter. Because while I think it’s in the best interest of the team to move on from both Swisher and Granderson, we don’t need to end up starting Zoilo Almonte in RF and some nobody off the street in left. It’d put too much pressure on a declining Arod and Jeter to produce just for the team to win. Upton’s going to cost a lot less than Grandy, still in his 20′s, will play better defense than Grandy over the life of the contract, and still provides a little pop and more speed in CF.
If it came down to Swisher vs Granderson and we had to sign one I’d go with Swisher. He should age better and likely be a cheaper and shorter contract. Though in a best case scenario we move on from both before we see those declining years, with Arod and Jeter already over the hill and moving on, and Teixeira and Cano exting their primes.
The BJ Upton idea is a good one. Because 2014 will be constrained by the $189 million budget, we want to maximize championship odds this year and next.
I like Upton’s talent and it would be interesting to see if Kevin Long could get more out of him. With the Yankees’ emphasis on character though, I just don’t see them going after him.
I think the character thing is somewhat overblown with him. I don’t think he is as bad as Hanley Ramirez, I could be wrong though. I think on a veteran led team like the Yankees he would fall in line.
I don’t necessarily disagree with you. I’m just guessing that the Yankees won’t pursue him for that reason.