Although prospect week may be over, the beginning of Spring Training has me thinking about prospects once again (not that I ever really stop). Getting to see some of the Yankees’ top prospects in action for the first time is always exciting, especially when you get to see them face off against major leaguers. All the discussion about the $189 million payroll ceiling for 2014 also brings the farm to the forefront, since the Yankees may need cheap in-house replacements at several positions (catcher, outfield, starting pitcher) to stay under the self-imposed cap. I thought it would be worth taking a look at some of the questions that the Yankees’ top prospects will have to answer this year to prove themselves as future contributors to the major league team.
Manny Banuelos: Fastball command
2011 was the first season where Banuelos had control problems of any sort, and reports suggested that his elevated walk rate was the result of a jump in his fastball velocity. This perhaps could suggest that he was overthrowing. 2012 will be an opportunity for Banuelos to prove that he can command his newfound velocity, while continuing to feature his changeup and develop his breaking ball.
Gary Sanchez: Receiving
Sanchez had his struggles with inconsistency and maturity in 2011, which were problematic but not terribly surprising for an 18 year-old phenom making his debut in full season ball. While Sanchez’s bat looked as advertised (he had more homers and a higher ISO than Jesus Montero did in any minor league season), he was strongly criticized for his defense. Sanchez’s throwing last year was actually pretty good, gunning down 31% of attempted base stealers. However, 26 passed balls is way too high, and he will need to improve there to have the confidence to call breaking pitches in appropriate counts, and prove that he can stick at catcher.
: Mechanics
Throughout Betances’ minor league career, high strikeout and walk totals have gone hand-in-hand. Overall he has been effective, maintaining low ERA’s and a low batting average against. His fastball, curveball, and changeup have all looked like above average to plus pitches at times, but command across the board has been a major obstacle. Scouting reports on Betances mention that he has had difficulty repeating his motion, and that his large frame makes this task even more complicated. For Betances to get a chance to stick in the bigs as a starter, he will need to lower his walk rate. Smoothing out his mechanics and improving the repeatability of his delivery is essential to accomplishing that goal.
Mason Williams: Power
Williams’ strong debut allowed him to flash his strong hit tool, plus-plus speed, and excellent defensive ability. While his batting average will probably fall below .349 in full season ball, hitting for average should not be a problem for him going forward. However, power remains a question mark due to Mason’s slight frame and swing plane. Williams hit plenty of doubles last year, but his ability to turn some of those doubles into homers will have a major impact on his future ceiling. Williams still projects as a very good player either way, but if he can grow into his frame (rumors are that he has added some muscle) and make some adjustments to his approach, he could have true superstar upside.
Jose Campos: Secondary offerings
Campos was able to carve up Northwest League hitters last season primarily with his fastball, a legitimate plus pitch with mid-90′s velocity and great movement. His great command of the pitch helped him overmatch batters at the lower levels, but he will need to strengthen his other pitches to have sustained success. Campos features a curveball and a changeup that both have potential, flashing plus on occasion, but lacking consistency. To prove that he is more than a one-trick pony going forward, Campos will need to develop his secondary offerings into consistent weapons that can be called upon to complement his fastball. His ability to make these improvements will play a significant role in determining whether he projects as a starter or a reliever in the future, but luckily for Campos, time is on his side.
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About Williams. I won’t mind if he never develops super duper home run power, as long as the rest remains plus, (defense, batting average, speed, doubles) As much as I love a guy with 41 homers, such as Granderson, I don’t like Grandy’s .250 batting average. Mickey Rivers was very useful in a championship team and if Williams can hit .300+ with 25 steals and 30 doubles, I can deal with 15 homers. With all his skills, there is no reason for him to continually read that his lack of power is a negative. Homers are overrated as evidenced by noting that the team that leads the league in homers, does not win the ring very often. I guess I’d rather have 5 guys w 20 homers than 2 w 50….98 Yankees had no one with 30 dingers. I think Williams is fine.
Agreed. If he doesn’t add any power, he could be Brett Gardner with a higher batting average and fewer walks. Not a star, but still a very valuable player (especially while his salary is cheap). I don’t see Williams as a 30-homer guy, but if he could get into the 15-20 range annually with a lot of doubles, he could be a pretty special player.
The downside is he ends up like Austin Jackson. Depending on how much of a hit his BA/OBP takes as he climbs the ranks some power is going to be important.
Yeah, Hawaii Dave, dynamic baseball. Running and jumping for the ball and the bag is good practice for that Big celebration at the end.
I have a suggestion for Mr. Banuelos. The setup to his delivery includes a foot and hip turn, often followed , the other day, by a sailing wide of the mark. He might try to simplify that part of his windup, and channel his attention into his follow through.
Maybe a review of Cliff Lee’s videos, and Mariano’s, rather than Fernando Valenzuela’s.
I have legit worries about Betances ever fully understanding his mechanics. At 24 he should have a better feel for repeating his mechanics, even at his height. If he doesn’t make serious improvements this year the Yankees are going to have to really look into his long term future as a starter.
As do I. I am curious about how Betances was able to get his walk rate down in 2010 (down to around 2 per 9), and if that was the result of a mechanical change. It did seem like he was making progress, but 2011 was definitely a step backward in the control department.
It certainly seems like an aberration. He has never really had a good walk rate season before or since, which would lead me to believe it was more fluke than a step forward.
When you look at that season though it sort of makes sense he would dominate to the point of walking less batters. He was repeating high A ball, at an advanced age, with supreme stuff. He was facing, for the most part, young, raw hitters, who had never seen him before and probably hadn’t seen someone with that kind of stuff that often. I tend to believe looking at those numbers he simply overpowered them, they swung at a lot of balls, and the batters themselves bailed him out. As you move up to AA, AAA, and eventually the majors batters will bail you out less and less frequently.
I certainly can’t look at his numbers while repeating A+ and say that’s his true potential, the numbers from every other year simply tell a different story.