I’m clearly on the bandwagon when it comes to the possible starters in 2012. Much of the blogosphere, us included, has dubbed this year’s pitching “competition” rigged. When Joe Girardi says only and are guaranteed a spot, it’s hard to take the manager seriously. While and will undoubtedly make the rotation as well, Phil Hughes appears to have the lead over for that final spot. While the competition might not be real, a lot can happen between now and opening day.
When will we see this in the Bronx?
Manny Banuelos has done nothing but impress so far. The Yankee’s top prospect, who turns 21 tomorrow, faced a mediocre season last year fueled by poor command. In his two innings of work last Friday, the southpaw gave up two hits and struck out three, while . His fastball sat 93-95 mph and topped out at 96 mph, impressive velocity for the beginning of March, but most importantly, the command on his fastball and curveball was spot on. In fact, when Joe Girardi joined the booth during one inning, you could hear his excitement as Banuelos dropped curveballs on the inside corners. After the Game, Joe Girardi spoke about the lefties command issues last year, blaming them on “nibbling a little too much.”
“I don’t think he’s real concerned about them hitting the ball hard, I just think he’s a young kid and it’s learning your body, how to repeat that delivery and attack the zone.”
Indeed, when you look at Banuelos’ numbers over his minor league career, you would never think a command problem existed. Before last season, he held a 2.76 BB/9 rate through 215.2 IP, but in 2011 he nearly doubled the rate, posting a 4.9 BB/9. Some scouts and fans attributed his bump in walks to his increase in velocity and/or facing a higher level of competition in AA. If Girardi’s theory of nibbling is correct, the pitcher’s biggest flaw could be an easy solution, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Banuelos with the club by the end 2012.
“I think he battled some nerves his first time out,” Russell Martin said, “He looked like he was a little erratic. This time out, was just pitching. Powering his fastball, downward plane, and he looked like he just had more control of all his pitches. So I think as we progress here, he’s just going to sharpen up.”
Thus far, Banuelos has surprised me the most among starters, if he sharpens up any more he could easily best Hughes and Garcia this month. While the chances of anyone other than these two landing the 5th rotation spot is likely close to zero, in a real competition, Banuelos would be considered.
“If you look at his numbers last year, he had some high walk totals against right-handed hitters,” Girardi said. “That’s something that he has to correct, because you don’t want walks beating you. I think his command can improve, and when that improves I think he’s a major league pitcher. Obviously we love the talent and what he can become.”
While I realistically expect him to be pitching for the Empire State Yankees at the beginning of the year, what happens if he continues to show improved command? What happens if we see a couple starting pitchers injured? What happens if Banuelos is major league ready now?
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I think banuelos is this years montero- everyone will be clamoring to see him all year but the yanks will hold off until September. I don’t mind him getting the extra time, he probably needs it, but If by the end of may its clear that we have a spot for him(due to injury or someone’s in effectiveness) while he is dominating AAA I’d definitely want to see him up soon
On some teams, even with limited experience at AAA, Banuelos would join the MLB club out of ST. The Yankees currently have the luxury of allowing him a bit more time to develop. I can definitely see him coming up should there be an injury or performance issues with one of the MLB starters and he performs well in AAA. The best news is that it appears he can be a long term solution in the Yankees rotation beginning no later than the 2013 season. Exciting stuff!
No doubt in Banuelos continues to perform he will be called up. I really do hope however that the Yankees give him more time to mature and work on his game in Triple A. Hopefully they give him until September then call him up.
If the Yankees need to call up someone before then I hope they call upon Phelps. He seems to be doing a very good job so far this spring as well.
In any case the future of the Yankees and their pitching prospects looks pretty darn good to me.
I agree with this. No matter how good he looks in ST or at the start of his AAA season he should wait until as close to Sept. as possible. It can only do him good to work on his curve and fastball command more, while getting put in new situations at the next level. He’s still young for his level. Phelps and Warren are probably the first callups, unless Betances just blows doors down. Betances needs a big step up this year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the bullpen before Sept. They’ll do it just to get him big league experience. Since he’s getting close to put up or shut up time.
uyf1950 and Chris…
I think you both have good opinions, very thoughtful. One thing is, ManBam is not on the 40 man roster (i think) so the chances of him coming up (if needed) are slim to none. Phelps is on the 40 man but, Warren isn’t so logicaly, Phelps would be the one called up. I think ManBam may come up for September expansion. I like the idea of him staying in AAA for the year.
Banuelos will get his time in AAA and I think at least for the first half this year that is where he should pitch. I disagree with one thing written here…that was Nova is guaranteed a spot. I think if he has a rough spring he could go down to AAA to work out his problems. He does have minor league options. I like the experience of Freddy Garcia and I believe he is a perfect 5th starter.
I imagine the Yankees may want to limit Manny’s innings somewhat this year, and that might prevent them from using him as a 5th starter for a while. It’s much easier to control innings in AAA when the games are not incredibly important. There could certainly be developmental reasons for keeping him down, especially to work on his fastball command.
I’d be curious to hear whether the Yanks’ 2014 austerity plan would have any impact on when the bring Banuelos up. Would it make any difference in terms of how much he gets paid in 2014 based on when/if he gets called-up this year? Or is it just moot?
There would be some difference if he were called up early this season to become arbitration-eligible after 2 years, but I don’t see that happening. It wouldn’t be a major difference likely unless Manny is an ace from the get-go.
I think you are really jumping the gun here. If the Yankees had the same philosophy as the Tigers, maybe you’d see Banuelos at some point this years but they are much more patient. Banuelos has never thrown even 130 innings in a season. They want him to get a full season of AAA and get his innings up.
Cashman is on record that he doesn’t want a major league need to rush the development of Banuelos or Betances. They already have six starters at the major league level plus Phelps, Warren, and Mitchell all above them in the pecking order this year. Frankly, with Betances on the 40 man, he’s above Banuelos too. I really doubt that Banuelos gets a single start for the Yankees this year even in a meaningless September game if and after they’ve clinched. I’d be only slightly more surprised to see Banuelos starting than Joba starting.
I bet the Yankees don’t want to get the clock started on Manny so no matter how well he pitches he will be starting the year in AAA. Wasn’t he outstanding in spring training last year too? One thing is certain; it’s a great problem to have.
Yes, he did look good in ST last year. I didn’t think about it from outside of a development stand point, but that’s a good point. If they are looking to keep pay down that makes sense to keep the clock from starting.
If Banuelos is as good as he seems to be, .the Montero trade will be seen to be even more of a mistake. :(
How does this make any sense? Pineda can throw 200 innings this year, Banuelos can not, Pineda has ace upside, banuelos does not, outside of Sabathia and Nova we have no one guaranteed of a rotation spot in 2013 and beyond, there are 5 spots in a rotation to fill, we also got back another pitcher with top of the rotation upside some rank ahead of Betances, and a pitcher with ace upside is always more valuable than a DH.
I get the man crush everyone has on Montero, but really people see the facts and not the skewed bias.
Cashman’s said all winter long that both kids will start the year at AAA. He’s also said in a perfect world they’d stay there until at least Sept. A few games at ST against minor league talent isn’t going to change his mind. There would have to be some major injuries for them to call these 2 up. Based on last year, both need to work on their command. Don’t rush these guys. Let them develop properly. They’ve got other options before them.