All smiles in December of 08
After watching his stuff decline and seeing Allan James Burnett post back to back seasons of 5+ ERA pitching, a common refrain amongst Yankee fans has been to call the Burnett signing a mistake on the part of Yankee GM Brian Cashman. It’s easy for us to say, having the benefit of hindsight and 3 years of results to cite as evidence. But besides being unfair to those who have to make decisions in real time, its also incorrect given the facts available at the time. Let’s take a look at who was available on the 2009 free agent list:
| Mario Alvarez | Los Angeles Dodgers | 24 | Re-signed with the Dodgers, minor league deal |
| Tony Armas Jr. | New York Mets | 30 | Re-signed with the Mets, minor league deal |
| Jason Bale | Kansas City Royals | 34 | Re-signed with the Royals. 1 year, $1.2 million |
| Matt Belisle | Cincinnati Reds | 28 | Signed a minor league deal with the Rockies. |
| A.J. Burnett | Toronto Blue Jays | 31 | Signed with the Yankees. 5 years, $82.5 million. |
| Paul Byrd | Boston Red Sox | 37 | |
| Daniel Cabrera | Baltimore Orioles | 27 | Signed with the Nationals. 1 year, $2.6 million |
| Chris Capuano | Milwaukee Brewers | 30 | Re-signed with the Brewers |
| Shawn Chacon | Houston Astros | 30 | |
| Matt Clement | St. Louis Cardinals | 34 | Signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays |
| Bartolo Colon | Boston Red Sox | 35 | Signed with the White Sox. 1 year, $1 million |
| Jairo Cuevas | Kansas City Royals | 24 | Re-signed a minor league deal with the Royals |
| Ryan Dempster | Chicago Cubs | 31 | Re-signed with the Cubs. 4 years, $52 million |
| Elmer Dessens | Atlanta Braves | 37 | Signed a minor league with the Mets |
| Scott Elarton | Cleveland Indians | 32 | |
| Shawn Estes | San Diego Padres | 35 | Signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers |
| Josh Fogg | Cincinnati Reds | 31 | Signed a minor league deal with the Rockies |
| Casey Fossum | Detroit Tigers | Signed a minor league deal with the Mets | |
| Freddie Garcia | Detroit Tigers | 32 | Signed a minor league deal with the Mets |
| Jon Garland | Los Angeles Angels | 28 | Signed with the Diamondbacks. 1 year plus option |
| Tom Glavine | Atlanta Braves | 42 | Re-signed with the Braves. 1 year, $1 million |
| Charlie Haeger | San Diego Padres | 25 | Signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers |
| Mike Hampton | Atlanta Braves | 35 | Signed with the Astros. 1 year, $2 million. |
| Mark Hendrickson | Florida Marlins | 34 | Signed with the Orioles. 1 year, $1.5 million |
| Clay Hensley | San Diego Padres | 29 | Signed a minor league deal with the Astros |
| Livan Hernandez | Colorado Rockies | 33 | Signed a minor league deal with the Mets |
| Orlando Hernandez | New York Mets | 38 | |
| Runelvys Hernandez | Houston Astros | 30 | Signed with the Samsung Lions in the Korean Baseball Organization |
| Jason Jennings | Texas Rangers | 30 | Signed a minor league deal with the Rangers |
| Jason Johnson | Los Angeles Dodgers | Signed a minor league deal with the Yankees | |
| Randy Johnson | Arizona Diamondbacks | 44 | Signed with the Giants. 1 year, $8 million. |
| Ken Kadokura | Yomiuri Giants | 35 | Signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays |
| Kenshin Kawakami | Chunichi Dragons | 33 | Signed with the Atlanta Braves. 3 years, $23 million |
| John Lackey | Los Angeles Angels | 29 | Team Exercised Option: $9 million |
| Kyle Lohse | St. Louis Cardinals | 29 | Re-signed with the Cardinals. 4 years, $41 million. Full no-trade clause. |
| Braden Looper | St. Louis Cardinals | 33 | Signed with the Brewers. 1 year plus option |
| Derek Lowe | Los Angeles Dodgers | 35 | Signed with the Braves. 4 years, $60 million. |
| Greg Maddux | San Diego Padres | 42 | Retired |
| Mike Maroth | Kansas City Royals | 30 | Signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays |
| Pedro Martinez | New York Mets | 36 | |
| Jamie Moyer | Philadelphia Phillies | 45 | Re-signed with the Phillies. 2 years, $13 million. |
| Mark Mulder | St. Louis Cardinals | 31 | Team Declined Option: $11 million, $1.5 million buyout |
| Mike Mussina | New York Yankees | 39 | Retired |
| Tomo Ohka | Chicago White Sox | 32 | Signed a minor league deal with the Indians |
| Carl Pavano | New York Yankees | 32 | Team Declined Option: $13 million, $1.95 million buyout. Signed with the Indians. 1 year, $1.5 million |
| Brad Penny | Los Angeles Dodgers | 30 | Signed with the Red Sox. 1 year, $5 million |
| Odalis Perez | Washington Nationals | 31 | Re-signed with the Nationals, minor league deal |
| Oliver Perez | New York Mets | 26 | Re-signed with the Mets. 3 years, $36 million |
| Andy Pettitte | New York Yankees | 36 | Re-signed with the Yankees. 1 year. $5.5 million plus bonuses |
| Sidney Ponson | New York Yankees | 31 | Signed a minor league deal with the Royals |
| Mark Prior | San Diego Padres | 27 | Signed a minor leauge deal with the Padres |
| Horatio Ramirez | Chicago White Sox | 29 | Signed with the Royals. 1 year, $1.8 million |
| Tim Redding | Washington Nationals | 30 | Signed with the Mets. 1 year, $2.25 million |
| Kenny Rogers | Detroit Tigers | 43 | |
| Glendon Rusch | San Diego Padres | 33 | Re-signed with the Rockies to a minor league deal. |
| C.C. Sabathia | Milwaukee Brewers | 28 | Signed with the Yankees. 7 years, $161 million. |
| Curt Schilling | Boston Red Sox | 41 | Retired |
| Ben Sheets | Milwaukee Brewers | 30 | |
| John Smoltz | Atlanta Braves | 41 | Signed with the Red Sox. 1 year, $5.5 million. |
| Steve Trachsel | Baltimore Orioles | 37 | |
| Koji Uehara | Yomiuri Giants | 33 | Signed with the Orioles. 2 years, $10 million. |
| Tim Wakefield | Boston Red Sox | 42 | Team Exercised Option: $4 million |
| Randy Wolf | Houston Astros | 31 | Signed with the Dodgers. 1 year, $5 million |
| Jamey Wright | Texas Rangers | 33 | Signed a minor league deal with the Royals |
| Jaret Wright | Pittsburgh Pirates | 32 | |
| Victor Zambrano | Colorado Rockies | 33 |
Looking at that list, what pitcher should Brian Cashman have signed? Derek Lowe was generally considered to be the next best option after AJ, and he posted an ERA+ of 88, 98 and 75 in his 3 seasons with the Braves (1.3 net WAR). As bad as Burnett has been, he posted ERA+ of 114, 82 and 86 and 3.4 net WAR in the same time frame. At least you got one good season out of AJ, and it was a championship winning year. You could make an argument for Ryan Dempster, but all indications were he wanted to stay in Chicago for family reasons. Jake Peavy was available on the trade market, but looking at his (or lack thereof) with the White Sox I doubt Yankee fans are kicking themselves over that. He’s pitched well when healthy, but Peavy has averaged 17 starts per year over the past 3 years, and missed most of 2009 with an ankle tear. The term of AJ’s contract was too long, but the Yanks tried to keep it at 4 years and only upped their offer when the Braves went to five.
So in closing let me ask, where was the clear option that Cashman should have selected?
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
I really wish Mussina didn’t retire
That free agent list really gives some perspective to signing A.J. It’s always easier just to say Cashman made a bad mistake.
How about not signing anyone at all?
That would require giving back our 2009 World Series championship. Without Burnett we don’t use a 3 man rotation through out the playoffs, and Pettitte would’ve been the 2 and not the 3, so we might not even have made it to the World Series. With out Burnett winning game 2 of the World Series after Sabathia lost to Lee in game we certainly don’t win the World Series. We needed Burnett in 2009 to accomplish our goals, let’s not allow the last two years to overshadow that.
That also assumes we make no moves in season, including that we don’t wind up trading for Lee.
Well we didn’t end up trading for Lee, in order to do so we would’ve had to include Nova or Nunez. That’s also another reason to be thankful we had Burnett. If we were put into a position where we had no choice but trade for Lee we’d have at best another aging long term contract, no Montero, no Nova and/or Nunez, and no Pineda. At worst we’d have no Montero, no Pineda, no Nova and/or Nunez, and no Lee when he signed with the Phils anyway. All in all it worked out much better this way as we got the WS championship in 09, didn’t have to trade Montero+ on the gamble Lee would’ve stayed, and we have Pineda.
There’s nothing about losing Eduardo Nunez that keeps me up at night.
Losing Montero, Nova, and Pineda for a half a year of Lee would’ve kept me up at night. That would’ve gone down as one of Cashman’s worst moves ever after Lee joined the Phils.
It would’ve been a year and a half at that point.*
That’s such an un-sabermetric argument. That says that whatever happened is the only thing that could have happened. What are the odds that the Yankees could have found someone to go 14-9, and pitch 5 starts in the postseason? They’re certainly not zero. Yeah, the 2009 season worked out; that doesn’t mean signing Burnett was the reason.
The in-house option was Ian Kennedy. It’s hard to argue that he could have matched what AJ did after IPKs disastrous 08 season. I’ve been a consistent fan of Ian, but I’d be the first to admit I think he benefited going to the NL West and getting out of NY.
Because saying you could find someone else to go 14-9 is the saber argument of all time? Burnett provided over 200 innings of above average ball to get through the 2009 season, he followed that up by being the number 2 starter in a 3 man rotation through out the post season ending up in winning the World Series. There was no in house option than could have done any of that. The best chance would’ve been being desperate for Cliff Lee and giving the Mariners anything they wanted to keep him from Texas. Which given the reports would likely mean Nova and Nunez along with Montero.
It’s easy to say “someone else could have replaced AJ”, finding the person who would’ve done it isn’t. I would much rather have gone with AJ, have 2009 finish as it did, keep Nova, and trade for Pineda then try and go back through time and find someone to trade Montero for in 2009.
Burnett was an overpay, but we were desperate and it resulted in a championship. Since 2009, He’s at least been a healthy innings eater that sprinkles in some big games for us. I’m happy with how it worked out.
I guess one could learn to be wary committing to 32+ age for a long and rich contract when the pitcher had only two good pitches. But I was giddy with the dominance AJ showed in ’08, and relished it.
AJ may yet develop another pitch or two, once he lets go reliance on what used to work, but the contract size was predicated on the former tools’ success.
Nice post, Steve – and a good antidote to hindsight!
Even with the benefit of hindsight, the only name on the list I see is Wolf that can eat inning and pitch okay ball. Penny would have been fine if he wasn’t missing time in 2010. (Obviously there’s no way in hell Cashman was going to bring back Pavano without
getting the entire front office either fired or executed by firing squad.the fan base riotting)We won a championship with him as a part of a 3 man rotation. He was worth it.
I think we need to remember what the Yankees rotation looked like going into the 2009 season.
Only Moose, Joba and Mo managed a better than 2.0 WAR in 2008. Moose retired on a high, and Andy, coming off a weak season, was thinking of joining him. Wang was injured and we didn’t know when he’d return (answer: mostly never). Hughes and Kennedy had awful seasons cut short by injury. At the close of 2008, the 2009 opening day rotation consisted of Joba Chamberlain and no one else. We didn’t have healthy major league starters, and there was no one ready in Scranton.
Adding CC Sabathia only solidified the top spot. Age and injury left the 2-5 spots as giant question marks. If they had not signed AJ, the $50m they had invested in CC and Teix in the offseason would have been wasted.
Agreed on all points, and this serves as a reply to those who suggested the Yanks ‘not sign anyone’. That wasn’t a realistic option for the Yanks.
Very well said! A perfect reply to why we couldn’t afford not to sign AJ.
The point of this piece was to draw the distinction between making a good decision and whether it works out or not. Given the facts available at the time and the pool of players available, Brian Cashman made the right call. It just didn’t work out, at least not after the first year. But the decision made at the time was not a “mistake”. There’s an important distinction to be made there.
Agreed.
However, isn’t overpaying for someone mediocre because no one else is available the kind of thing YAers generally deride as a desperation move?
It was desperation, after missing the playoffs in 08 I think the Yanks were willing to take chances they otherwise wouldn’t because they couldn’t bear missing the post season 2 years in a row.
With the benefit of hindsight, signing Jon Garland would have been much preferable. I didn’t hear anyone clamoring for that at the time, though.
Love the fact he only got a 1 year deal in 09, not sure he would have got them through the playoffs. Has been a league average innings eater the past few years, AJ did give you one that good season in 09. Not a bad choice, but I have my doubts that team would have won.
You make it sound like there is some law that required the Yankees to sign one of those guys. Sure, to look at the list and choose you might say AJ was the choice. That does not change the idea that lifetime .500 pitchers should be given 82 mil no matter how “nasty” their curve ball is. How about never giving huge money to risky players. That AJ signing was based on “hope” and not on performance. AJ was both brilliant and fail in his pre Yankee career. So it was “hope we get the brilliant AJ”. My Yanks were not forced to sign him, they could have gone with youth.
They signed Sabathia and Teixeira the offseason after missing the playoffs. Going with a 2-5 of Pettitte, Joba, Kennedy, and who knows wasn’t a real option. You don’t sign two guys to contracts like that and go through a rebuilidng movement with your rotation. You sign Sabathia and Teixeira to try and win the World Series that year, which we did. Your Yankees were forced to sign him, they needed another 200 innings to add to CC for 2009, and they needed a number 2 arm for the playoffs. “Youth” would have, and did, neither of those two things.
Signing Burnett wasn’t based on hope, it was based on the fact that he was a Red Sox and Yankee killer in his time with the Blue Jays. The concern the Yankees had was long term health. They figured he would be a number 2 or 3 arm when healthy, but that he wouldn’t be healthy through out the contract. It just turns out he was healthy, but started a rapid decline in stuff due to age in 2010.
They were also moving into the new stadium. The idea of selling $2500 seats for a team ‘rebuilding’ doesn’t really work.