Joel Sherman had an interesting tidbit in his column this morning. Here it is:
Owner Hal Steinbrenner already has expanded his budget once this offseason to allow the signing of Hiroki Kuroda. He has yet to say the Yankees can do so again in order to sign even one additional player, much less two. This is why the Yankees are quietly — but diligently — still working to trade A.J. Burnett.
They know no team will take all of Burnett’s remaining two years at $33 million. But if they could save, say, $4 million this year and next year, it would provide some wiggle room to finish off their roster heading into spring training.
That quote in bold caught my attention, knowing a thing or two about how these things often work. It’s phrased as something of a hypothetical, so at first glance it would seem premature to take this as anything other than his own musings. But I doubt a good reporter like Sherman would invent those numbers without clarifying that as his own personal speculation. Common sense will tell you the person talking to Sherman wont want to negotiate the deal through the press, so the source in all likelihood is letting Joel know what he’s thinking, and left it up to him to rephrase the information in such a way where the Yanks don’t come across as desperate to move Burnett at any cost. But now I’m reading tea leaves. What made this worth posting was that Sherman was far more definitive in an interview later today on the Michael Kay show. Here’s the clip (fast forward to 33:50 minute mark) where he said this:
“What they’re hoping to do is find someplace to deposit AJ Burnett. Now they know they’re going to have to eat about 75% of the two years at 33M left. If they could get someone to eat 4-5M per year of that, they could then turn around and have their cake and eat it too and do Chavez and then take their choice of who they want the most of Damon, Matsui, Ibanez.”
So there you have it. He went on to say that while Hal Steinbrenner may not love the idea, it could be sold as an addition by subtraction in opening up AJs spot to a better starter, as well as taking the savings and adding two needed pieces acting as somewhat of a trade. This goes far beyond the previous report from George King on December 7th that they were willing to absorb around 8M to get a deal done. It would appear there were (unsurprisingly) no bites when that offer made the rounds, so we will have to see if anyone takes the bait now. Circumstances have changed greatly from mid December. Most of the FA pitchers with any ability are all off the board, so if a team has a need in their rotation this will be one option to consider if they have some room in their budget.
Here’s the fundamental question. If AJ was a free agent right now, would he get 2 years at 8M? It’s hard to say. He’s performed badly, but a NL team might think his remaining upside is worth the risk at that price. There are teams out there that need pitching and can’t give their money away. The Pirates have long had difficulty luring even middling free agents to play for their club, and reportedly offered Edwin Jackson a 3 year/30M deal, but he chose to sign a 1 year deal with the Nats because he didn’t want to play in Pittsburgh. Tim Dierkes of MLBTR thinks the Pirates, White Sox, Orioles and A’s all make sense to varying degrees. He also noted that the Yanks and Pirates have discussed Burnett, but the talks never got serious. It is worth noting that the Pirates are not one of the teams on AJ Burnett’s no trade clause.
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As bad as AJ has been, an NL team has to see value in him at only $4m a year. The question is what the Yankees could get back though. If they’re dumping him for the sake of signing someone like Damon, I would prefer to keep AJ. With $25m and a pitcher with potential in the NL, there has to be some sort of return.
Joel addressed how they could sell this to Hal in the interview. He said that Hal won’t like the idea that he’s eating 25M for some guy to pitch elsewhere, but by opening up a rotation spot for a better pitcher (Hughes/Garcia) that already on the payroll that’s a net plus for the team. You also take the savings and fill to needs with Chavez and the DH, so that has the effect of working like a trade.
If Damon and Chavez were under contract elsewhere, and Cash was able to trade Burnett for them straight up without adding payroll (and save 4M toward next year) I think we’d all cheer. This is effectively the same thing. It’s what the Braves did when they unloaded Lowe.
The problem I have with that argument is that the Braves ate $10m to save $5m. The Yankees would have to eat $25m to save $8m. There is a big difference between the totals. Also, the Yankees shouldn’t have to worry about adding $4m to their payroll, they’re the Yankees!
I might be higher on AJ than others, but if the Yankees can’t get anything decent back, I think he has more value as the 5th or 6th starter. If the Yankees are looking to free up salary, maybe Garcia would accept a trade.
The trading team won’t look at the actual salaries, they will look at how much they are willing to pay. Just because AJ is signed to a bigger contract doesn’t mean he is more valuable to other teams.
Absolutely not, but theres a point at which the Yankees are eating too much of the contract to make it viable for themselves.
Yes, but let’s view those numbers in context. It’s 25M on roughly 400M total for 2 years of payroll, or about 1/16th (6.25%) annually.
The Braves spent 87M last year, so if payroll stays about the same eating 10M would represent roughly 1/8 of payroll, 11.5% to be more precise.
So it actually hurt the Braves much more, but I’m sure that doesn’t surprise anyone.
Good point.
The Braves traded him because he didn’t have a role on the 2012 team. They got the best deal they could for him and that meant the other team paying 5MM. I doubt the percentage of payroll factored into whether to trade him or not.
10MM sunk cost to the Braves may hurt them more than 25MM over 2 to the Yankees, but that doesn’t effect the value of AJ Burnett in relation to Derek Lowe or in a vacuum.
How do you know it doesnt effect the value of Burnett? We certainly know that in arb what other players have recived for ~performance, dictates what said player will get. Do you think its out of line to think that underperporming contracts are weighed the same? Do you think when the Yankees are trying to trade Burnett that, that the opposing GM doesnt bring Lowe?
I agree that Burnett has more value as a 5th starter than most are willing to admit, but he can’t be sent to the pen. If he gets sent to the bullpen i fully believe you will lose him. He won’t be good for anything other than mop up in games that are already lost. Because of that if he’s on the team he has to start. That means the question is what’s more valuable, Burnett in the 5th spot and Garcia in the pen? Or Garcia in the 5th spot and Ibanez and Chavez at DH and off the bench respectively?
If you can get a middle level prospect back of some kind, or even Garrett Jones back from the Pirates, it’s likely Garcia and the combination of whoever is playing DH and Chavez. Garcia likely won’t repeat his 2011 but he can’t be worse than Burnett over the past 2 seasons.
I agree, Michael. $4 million for AJ’s potential to straighten it out, eat innings, and his playoff success, it’s cheap. Cheap for us, if we have some injuries in ST. Good (?) insurance, and he may be worth more later, since he has started the years well, at least.
Watching that smooth delivery, it’s only when I see overwhelming evidence to the contrary that it gets tedious. But I couldn’t blame anyone for not risking hope again.
But, we can start the year with Chavez and Dickerson sharing the lefty DH duty. Hal will have to bend that much.
Who’s smooth delivery? Burnett’s? I could describe Burnett’s mechanics in a lot of way, smooth would never be one of them.
I would rather have Ibanez, Damon, Matsui, Branyan, or just about anyone else than Dickerson as a lefty DH.
I really don’t get what anyone sees in Dickerson for him to get the kind of support I have seen. Between seeing people call for him to DH and people wanting him to take over for Swisher full time it boggles the mind. He’s a AAAA player who strikes out 30% of the time.
Yeah, Burnett’s smooth delivery. It is unusual, and certainly I can’t differ from your arguments about his command, the exact repeatability, but I enjoyed to watch him greatly, when the results were there. When he got in a groove, nothing better. Contrast to Wang’s exaggerated stretch, oh, so tedious.
Dickerson, I would expect a supporting role, with Chavez taking the main load. Just that sometimes Alex may need relief with a tough righty opposing, so Chavez and Dickerson would be the choice.
Just trying to suggest a means to obviate the nearby advantage of selling AJ cheap. And Dickerson, who’s out of options, is our best 5th outfielder for cheap, and if he’s gonna stay, he ought to be given some AB’s on a regular basis.
His mechanics are actually kind of herky jerky really, his head tends to move a lot as well which isn’t helping with command.
With Chavez as your main DH vs RHP and Dickerson as the backup you can fully expect at some point Dickerson is going to be your main DH vs RHP. Chavez has proven time and time again he isn’t going to stay healthy for a full season. Last year he got hurt running the bases, so DH’ing doesn’t take any of the injury risk away. If Branyan proves himself to be healthy in ST I would much rather have his power DH’ing vs RHP than either Chavez or Dickerson. Though Ibanez is my number 1 choice above all 3.
If he’s out of options he can still be assigned to Scranton if no one claims him off waivers, which he would likely pass through. If he doesn’t make it through I’d honestly just rather let someone claim Dickerson than give him ABs on a regular basis. Jones is a better 4th outfielder and you don’t need a 5th outfield on a roster with the 4 quality OF options we have. He’d never see the field and his bat is anything but a strength. A bench of Jones, Cervelli, Nunez, and Chavez/Branyan/Hall/Pena/Laird should do. There’s no room for Dickerson, unless you give him the DH role over the more qualified Branyan or Ibanez.
oh, no, it is just the money that argues against Branyan or Ibanez, Hal’s argument. I have felt just so about Dickerson, as well, but if they are trying to give him a chance, he has to get frequent practice, or waive him.
I agree that 4 outfielders is enough. (Nunie provides emergency coverage.) Two (plus Swish) reserve infielders. And if the DH can fill one of those roles, that’s ideal for flexibility.
You have a point about Chavez’ injury risk, but on the other hand, he, too, needs reps if he is going to hit well.
AJ, yeah, head movement is probably a main issue, but his delivery is otherwise smooth. Unusual, with that left leg relatively straight, but his arm action makes the ball flow thru to the plate. That maybe another weakness, now that his velocity has declined, as it may make it easier to pick up. But when it works, I love to see that flow.
It’s the disappointing results that have become tedious.
but, his delivery is similar to Eckersley. And Eck didn’t have that splitter till the A’s, developed it in his mid-thirties.
I don’t see many similarities to Eckersley’s mechanics. Eck had a much lower arm angle, kept his leg more bent, and had a much less violent follow through ending up almost completely squared to home plate. Burnett falls off towards first a lot more.
to my mind’s eye, it seems Eck’s leg was similarly straight. AJ was sidearming earlier, maybe 2010,(maybe not to Eck’s extreme late in his career) and Larry Rothschild got his arm higher, as part of “going directly home.”
I just looked up both AJ’s and Eck’s deliveries to make sure. Dennis had his leg much more bent and his arm is slightly above sidearm. I even went back to see AJ’s delivery with the Marlin’s and he’s still much more 3/4 than Dennis ever was. You could find two sets of mechanics much further apart than Eckersley and Burnett, but you could find two sets of mechanics much closer as well.
What money issue with Branyan? We just signed him to a minor league deal today.
Chavez can get reps as a 3B when Alex gets a rest or DHs, and he can get a few DH days here and there, but in no way am I comfortable relying on him to be the number one option as anything more than a bench piece behind Alex.
By “money issue” I mean Branyan is signed to a minor league commitment that dissolves if he doesn’t come to the bigs. He’ll cost a million or two, with incentives. And the premise in this article was that Hal says, “no mas,” therefore trade AJ now for the $4 million per relief.
Maybe you’re right on Chavez, but I would drive him as hard as medical advice and he would allow. But longer term, Figgins would be much more useful. We’re going to need that good utility player for several years.
He’s already signed to a minor league deal, which means if Hal had a problem with signing him he wouldn’t be signed. His contract is for 750K if he makes the big league roster, if he reaches enough incentives to bump it to a million or two million he would have been a pretty useful piece in the lineup this earning the money. They didn’t ink him hoping he wouldn’t make it on the roster.
If he passes a physical you play him as much as you want to play him, but to go into the season with him as a number 1 option at DH would be misguided in my opinion. He’s going to break down at some point. If you can sign one player between Chavez and Ibanez you go with Ibanez. If you can start one player at DH Chavez or Branyan you start Branyan.
if it’s ok with Hal, it’s ok with me. If you’re thinking to forego Chavez, would you feel comfortable with Branyan playing 30 games at third. By reputation, I dunno about whether the pitchers will.
You could start the year with Chavez, and if he breaks down, trade for somebody. I’ll go back to your idea, below, on Figgins, trading AJ – but after ST risks are passed, maybe.
I wouldn’t play Branyan anywhere but DH. Branyan had back problems last year anyway, so on top of his terrible defense it’d be a health risk. If he plays well enough in ST to prove he’s healthy he’d be my DH (if no new additions are made) and Nunez would back up SS and 3B.
I have a feeling we probably make an trade at the deadline for a more permanent DH solution no matter who we start the year with, but I’d still rather start the year with a DH stronger than Chavez. Don’t forget that last year most of his value was coming from defense. He hit pretty well before the injury, but he wasn’t a world beater and the power never showed. In fact after as many injuries as he’s had I have doubts about how much power he truly has left. If Chavez is in the lineup I want him at 3B or 1B most of the time to get the most value possible out of him. I really see him as an alternative to Hall as last off the bench, not DH.
I gotta hit the hay. It’s late in NJ.
Chavez, with frequent at bats, would likely hit for a good avg, obp. He probably doesn’t have more than doubles power, but he handles the bat very well. Just maybe a bit slow for Verlander. But I can see his value as extending rallies, late innings, even against better pitchers. That’s one place the Yanks were weak last year.
I know what you mean, and Chavez has value with the bat when healthy, but I’d prefer a better LH platoon bat. Either way if that’s our main concern it speaks to just how talented a team we have.
Talk to you later!
It’s really hard to tell who is replying to which comment with the way the comments are laid out on this site.
would probably help if the indents were more obvious.
I haven’t heard anyone mention this but would anyone trade Burnett for Chone Figgins? Both have had two awful years and both contracts end in 2013 (as long as Figgins doesn’t collect 600 PA’s in 2013). Figgins could go back to the way he played with the Angels starting some of the time at multiple positions, and Burnett would fit much better in Safeco than he would in Yankee Stadium. Figgins hasn’t shown himself to be much since leaving the Angels, but I would trust him over Hall, and he has a career UZR/150 of 8.5 at 3B in his career. He’s not the best option, but the he’s better than nothing.
I would do that. The Mariners have young pitching though. The Yankees would have to add money or prospects to the package to make it workable.
I wouldn’t really be a fan of giving up young talent just to get rid of AJ.
The utility player role, considering Alex and Jete,is one worth some talent, though I wouldn’t think Seattle would bargain too stiffly.
I think Nunie is progressing fine, but Figgins was a knockout before.
Figgins hasn’t played SS since 2006, so I would let Nunez be the SS off the bench. But Figgins could play 3B, 2B, LF, and RF, he’d basically be taking the role that Hall is going to compete for, and play a similar role to that of Chavez last year with more flexibility. He could probably play 1B in a pinch as well, but I’d just rather let Swisher play 1B in that scenario and let Jones or Figgins play RF instead.
Cool, hope it happens. Even hope AJ can prosper (boo-hoo) for someone else.
Figgins for AJ– pretty good deal
I think Figgins is making around 9 million a year, so the Yankees would have to throw in around 14 million total to even everything out. Though that’s still less than the 20-25 they would have to throw in if he gets traded elsewhere for a mediocre prospect.
The Mariners do have young pitching but none is ready just yet. As of right now they are looking at Noesi going into the season as their number 3 starter, with all 3 of their big time prospects still a year or two away from the big leagues. Burnett at worst would slide in behind Noesi at 4, and he could probably even bump Noesi to 4.
Plus they aren’t planning on starting Figgins this year. I forgot who they’ve slotted in at third but I do re-call reading that Figgins was going to the bench.
Grrreat idea! I loved what Figgins used to do. He was in the middle of every Angels’ rally. His falloff dive in Seattle has to be effected by the circumstance. He might revive markedly with a new (good) team, in a role in which he has shown value before.
I still think that the Yankees should hang on to Burnett and instead complete that trade and send Nova, Hughes, Betances, Romine and Mason Williams to LA for Kershaw.
Burnett will make a dandy #5 this year and the Yankees can afford to increase payroll a little.
What makes you think LA pulls the trigger? Nova is a mid-rotation starter. Never a top-100 prospect. Hughes has been largely a failure. Betances is seen by many as a relief pitcher. Austin Romine is a backup catcher. Mason Williams is in A-Ball.
Quantity? Yeah. But severely lacking in top-end quality. Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw is one of the two or three best pitchers in baseball and he’s 24 and under team control for a few more seasons. It’d take a lot more to pry him away.
I assume any package starts with Manny Banuelos, Gary Sanchez, Mason Williams, Ivan Nova, Jorge Campos, etc., etc. They’d want the entire system and then some.
That’s a fine pipe dream but I doubt we even have enough pieces to land Kershaw, even if we threw in everything we had to offer. They have no reason to trade him at all.
I think somebody would bite at that price. At the same time, if that’s all we’re going to get, we might want to keep him on board. Let him compete for the fifth starters spot and then, if that doesn’t work out, stick him in the bullpen.
I’m tired of his garbage as much as the next guy but last season there were signs of life and even if there isn’t a clear spot for him on this team, if we’re paying 75-80% of his salary, we might as well keep him around.
If he’s not going to be a starter we have no use for him. Keeping him around to simply mop up games that are out of hand would be worth less than shipping him for next to nothing. I see no way he comes out of the pen and doesn’t wilt at the demotion. I agree he provides enough value in the 5th spot to keep, very few if any 5th starters actually give you 33 starts a year, there’s value in that alone. But if you can get a guy like Jones from the Pirates or Figgins from the Mariners that might be valuable enough to pull the trigger and give the 5th spot to Garcia.
I could see that.
Burnett seems like a perfect bullpen convert. Big stuff, suspect command of said stuff, very inconsistent. As a starter his off days can wreck a bullpen. As a 6/7 guy his off days might put you a run down before you figure out he’s toast and bring someone else in. If he can pitch effectively most of the time (and in short spurts, with his stuff, I suspect he can) you live with a few bad outings contingent on limited damage.
But I could also see the argument that another non-elite bullpen arm (and the rotation depth that comes with it) really isn’t worth 4-5 million dollars and if we can unload a chunk of that contract or trade him for another useful piece we make this team better. He’d have to be a 1.0+ fWAR player to be worth keeping around. He was last season but that was merely an issue of his piling up innings. Can he do that in some other role? Maybe, maybe not.
THe premise of this whole article is suspect at best. Do you think the reigning world series champion CARDINALS, think that AJ would be good because hes now leaving the AL? Small sample size/anything can happen, ect. NL is doing quiet well in the games that count the most. I dont think they are going to line up to get AJ for 5m a year.
The NL is a weaker hitting division, that’s not debatable, they simply score less runs. When you have a pitcher batting 2-3 times a game and a bench player pinch hitting for said pitcher everytime after that it isn’t going to be as tough on a pitcher as a lineup with a DH. The Cardinals were never mentioned as a possible landing spot, the Cardinals don’t equal the entire NL. 5 million per year is relatively cheap for a starting pitcher who can offer you 33 starts, if you think going from the hardest division in baseball to the weaker hitting NL will also help a rebound then it’s incredibly tempting for a NL team to try and catch lightning in a bottle for such a cheap price. Teams won’t be lined up around the block trying to give away the farm for AJ, but there will be more than a few teams interested in picking him up for next to nothing. A team like the Pirates can hardly get players to sign with them, if they see AJ as a bounce back candidate they would be doing themselves a disservice by not trying to acquire a veteran arm like his on the cheap.
In case it wasnt clear, the NL is not some shit league that wants all the AL castoffs. Even an average NL team can win the WS like they have been. So how much better can the AL be? I’ll grant you, its looking really bleak for the NL in the next few years, but they are not lining up to get their hands on a $5m Burnett.
8 million dollars for 2 years for a pitcher who can give you 190 innings a year? I expect a few teams wouldn’t mind that kind of security in the 4 or 5 slot. Only question is what the Yankees would want in return, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a few teams called to inquire what it would take.