PECOTA run scoring projections

We’re finally days away from Spring Training. Soon enough, the waiting will be over and we’ll be able to watch REAL LIVE BASEBALL (shameless plug time: if you’re in the NYC metro area, you should totally come to ). But, before we get to that, let’s take another look at some run scoring projections via the Lineup Analysis tool from Baseball Musings. This time, we’ll be using Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA Projections. Remember, these are NOT split adjusted. I’ll run it a few times, using a few different scenarios for the designated hitter. And with the first run of each one, I’ll be sure to plug in what the lineup probably will be, not what I think it should be. To the after-jump we go.

Scenario 1: as the DH

(.348 OBP./.382 SLG)
(.341/.481)
(.369/.503)
(.370/.509…love this projection)
(.342/.482…a little light)
(.357/.449)
Russell Branyan (.328/.472)
(.361/.401)
(.353/.368)

That lineup would score 5.444 runs per game, which translates to about 882 runs over a full season. The best configuration of these players would be: Martin/Rodriguez/Swisher/Cano/Tex/Branyan/Gradnerson/Jeter/Gardner. That would amount to 5.511 runs per game, about 893 in a full year.

Our second scenario will assume (.317/.412) as the full time DH (which he, nor Branyan for that matter, likely wouldn’t be. Remember, these projections are NOT split adjusted). Using Jones in the 7th spot nets us 5.357 runs per game, 868 over the full season, a little off the Branyan pace. The best configuration of a Jones-inclusive lineup would be: Martin/Tex/Gardner/Rodriguez/Swisher/Cano/Jones/Jeter, which would mean 5.443 R/G (882 per 162).

Our last two scenarios are the ones that are most likely. These ones include (.328/.383) and (.315/.424) as the DHs, batting out of the 7th spot. Using Damon, we get a result of 5.340 R/G (866). The best lineup with Damon in it (5.432 R/G, 880 runs) would be: Martin/Tex/Gardner/Rodriguez/Swisher/Granderson/Cano/Damon/Jeter.

If we use Ibanez, we get 5.368 runs per game (870 per season). The best Ibanez-inclusive lineup (5.450/883) would be: Martin/Tex/Gardner/Rodriguez/Swisher/Granderson/Cano/Ibanez/Jeter.

Funny in that three out of the four “best” lineups, Jeter’s batting ninth. Anyway, that’s neither here nor there because it seems like no matter what, the Yankees are going to score their runs, and we could argue that these are pessimistic because this doesn’t assume splits.