Not Buying Dellin Betances the Ace Reliever

By On February 14, 2012 · 13 Comments · In Prospects

There are a lot of reasons to be pessimistic about Dellin Betances. He has trouble staying healthy. He has control problems. His velocity waivers between an awesome 95-96 mph and a less awesome 91-92 mph. All of that is valid stuff. He’s a high-risk prospect. What keeps him interesting, and cemented in the #3 Yankee prospect slot behind Manuel Banuelos and Gary Sanchez, is his high reward side. Even at lower velocities, his stuff is special: combining killer movement with at times killer velocity. His curve is a true plus offering, as evidenced by his minor league career K/9 over 10. He even brings a decent enough changeup to the party. He’s the kind of player that, if he manages to get his crap together, can be pitch as good as anyone in the majors. Granted, he’s more likely to be an A.J. Burnett type than C.C. Sabathia type, but the potential is there. Betances just has a knack for underachieving.

Betances’ health and control issues knock his prospect status down, and will probably prevent him from being all that good of a major league pitcher. This is perfectly understandable for a strong prospect, even one worthy of a top-100 prospect rating. However, given that reality, a lot of people are quick to say, “He’s probably a really good relief pitcher, not a starting pitcher.” Go online and read any national prospect ranker. I guarantee you’ll see the line. The problem is it’s a massive cop out.

There is no reason to believe that the same problems that are likely to keep Betances out of the major leagues won’t be there when he pitches in relief. His two chief problems are health, although he is starting to put that behind him, and control. He’s a big tall guy with big tall guy problems keeping his delivery consistent. His fastball may be a tick faster in the bullpen, but stuff is never going to be a problem for Betances.

I feel like there’s a tendency to assume that any power pitcher will automatically get better when moved to the bullpen. The Yankees tried this with Andrew Brackman, and it didn’t work. Betances compares in many ways to MLB guys like Daniel Cabrera and Chris Young. All three are tall, strong guys with great stuff but poor control, and at times have struggled to stay healthy. Teams have never really tried moving them to the bullpen, because they see their problems being bigger than starter/reliever.

I believe that people use the relief pitcher line about Betances because they don’t like to rate a guy so highly while acknowledging how risky he is. They want to have a fall-back plan, subconsciously at least. I think we should look at Betances the same way we look at Andrew Brackman: a guy who could put it all together and become a really good MLB starting pitcher, or he could struggle to do  anything in the bigs. I don’t think we should expect much to happen in between.

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13 Responses to Not Buying Dellin Betances the Ace Reliever

  1. smurfy says:
    February 14, 2012 at 2:59 pm

    Bravo, citing the cop out back sleeping in the squad car. I want to hazard a guess from seeing Dellin last fall: he was quite scared. Of course, that’s a natural thing if you’re in front of Yankee Stadium for the first time, but his facial body language was telling me that self-confidence would be his key. Anxiety drugs, psychologist or some such may be the remedy. Or he just finds the will to succeed.

    Reply
  2. bg90027 says:
    February 14, 2012 at 3:10 pm

    I agree to a point but primarily because I think those that emphasize that he’s more likely a reliever gloss too quickly over how high his ceiling is as a starter. He might be unlikely to achieve that ceiling but not many pitchers possess his potential so they really should give him every shot to stay a starter.

    That said, Brackman did improve as a reliever and it’s certainly easier to command one or two pitches than a full starter’s arsenal of pitches. So to the extent that control is his biggest issue, I don’t think he’s quite the dual outcome guy that you are painting him to be.

    Reply
    • EJ Fagan says:
      February 14, 2012 at 9:52 pm

      Brackman improved as a reliever, but he was by no means anything particularly special out of the bullpen. And we’re also talking about a really small sample size. Guys who make significant improvements after moving to the bullpen either lack the stuff to put hitters away consistently (Phil Hughes?) or the depth of repertoire to beat guys multiple times through the order. Neither are a problem for Betances.

      Reply
  3. Joe G says:
    February 14, 2012 at 3:29 pm

    I’ve always thought of Betances as a lottery ticket. We’ll hold him for as long as possible, and if he hits, great. If not, we’ll release him like we did with Brackman, or possibly package him in a larger trade. Let’s just hope for the best.

    Perhaps if he doesn’t do much damage to his reputation this year, we could build a package around him to get a future 3rd baseman. Mets perhaps?

    Reply
  4. entonces says:
    February 14, 2012 at 4:32 pm

    Brackman actually did pitch far better out of thre pen. And Betances never had anything like Brackman’s control problems. Brackman also never had anything like Betances’ strikeout proficiency. But they are both tall.

    Reply
  5. SDM says:
    February 14, 2012 at 4:54 pm

    I think the young AJ comp to a certain degree is pretty good for Betances, as we saw last season, Dellin will put together a string of 2-3 starts where he walks 3 or fewer and then he’ll cough up one or two games where he’ll walk 4+.

    Reply
  6. Reggie C. says:
    February 14, 2012 at 6:25 pm

    Can’t overlook the fact Betances is 24. The prospect star likely drops precipitously entering 2013. Not too many 25 year olds make prospects lists and thus Betances’s value has no where to go but down unless he figures it out now.

    Reply
    • SDM says:
      February 14, 2012 at 9:28 pm

      Yeah, but he also lost a year to injury and is insanely tall; those type of guys aren’t on the same schedule as most prospects. This should be Betances last year in the minors any way, He doesn’t have much left to prove in the minors except for the walk issue.

      Reply
    • EJ Fagan says:
      February 14, 2012 at 9:50 pm

      I wouldn’t read too much into his age. Betances has moved quickly whenever he has been healthy. Old players who stall in the minor leagues are the ones you have to worry about. We’re talking about a guy who lost a lot of time to injury.

      And really, tons of guys who come out of college aren’t near Triple-A at 23.

      Reply
  7. smurfy says:
    February 15, 2012 at 12:11 am

    I’d say you get him to build confidence, get on a run in AAA, and when he’s real strong, you bring him up to relieve in low pressure, then more pressure, 1, 2, 3 innings till he feels it. Then you can start him.

    But with his anxiety, you wouldn’t want to rush him. This year or next, when he’s still just 25 or 26. It’s still six years of team-control.

    Reply
    • Plank says:
      February 15, 2012 at 1:24 am

      That’s twice you’ve brought up his ‘anxiety problems’ I’ve never heard this. There is no mention of it on Google. Are you just making this up or do you have inside information on him? I have a feeling it’s the former.

      Reply
      • SDM says:
        February 15, 2012 at 10:53 am

        he’s pulling it out his ass, Betances doesn’t have any anxiety problems. A rookie player pitching for the first time in the bigs, for his childhood and hometown team should have the butterflies that first time.

        Reply
  8. J. Alfred Prufrock says:
    March 12, 2012 at 10:08 pm

    I think you’re mixing up readings on Betances’ 2-seamer with his heater. This is all over the internet, but he rarely ever sits under 93 mph on the 4-seam fastball. The 91, 92 is his two. Betances sits 93-95, hits 96 often, and tops out at 97, sometimes hits 98 and even 99 on occasion.

    Reply

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