Prospect list season is one of the bright spots in an otherwise boring offseason, as it is exciting to see where the different “experts” rank different Yankee prospects. Not surprisingly, household names such as Manny Banuelos, , and Gary Sanchez have continued to be highly regarded on these lists, forming the core of a top-10 farm system even after the loss of Jesus Montero in a trade. However, a number of prospects at lower levels have seen their statuses rise, strengthening the depth of the system.
Probably the biggest riser in the Yankee system has been outfield prospect Mason Williams, whom I have written about several times previously. While highly regarded in the draft for his tools and athleticism and believed to be a difficult sign, Williams surpassed even the most optimistic expectations for his professional debut. He was named the best prospect in the New York-Penn League, showing plus-plus speed, great outfield defense, excellent ability to hit for average, and some power potential.
Recently there has been some great analysis of Williams around the internet that I thought would be worth sharing. The first comes from ESPN minor league analyst and snarkmaster extraordinaire Keith Law. His glowing writeup on Williams (posted along with writeups on other Yankees in his top 100 on ESPN-NY) is below:
Williams, the son of former New England Patriot Derwin Williams, is an outstanding athlete who showed a much better approach and feel for the game in his first full year in pro ball than expected.
He’s an above-average-to-plus runner with a plus arm, but the most impressive part of his game in 2011 was the quality of his at bats, which improved over the course of the summer. He’s listed at 6 feet, 150 pounds, and has barely begun to fill out; much of the ‘power’ you see in his stat line was the product of his speed (six triples in 68 games), but he has the hip rotation and leverage to hit for real power when he’s not quite so skinny. His bat is quick, but his stride is very long and he glides on to his front side, so he doesn’t have as much time as he should to pick up off-speed pitch.
Williams finished second in the New York-Penn League in batting average, 10th in OBP, and 14th in slugging despite being one of the 10 youngest regulars in the league, and he’s barely begun to scratch the surface of his ability.
Law is higher on Williams than anybody else I have seen. He ranks him as the #2 prospect in the Yankee system (behind only Banuelos), and #34 overall in the minor leagues (for reference, I’d probably have him somewhere in the 80′s). In his ESPN chat today Law agreed with a questioner who wondered whether could be a reasonable ceiling for Williams.
It is evident from the above writeup and the Granderson comp that he sees more power potential in Williams than most. Perhaps Law sees Mason’s very skinny frame (6′ 150) as having room to add muscle without sacrificing too much speed, since his power production this season was not exceptional (though he did have a fair number of doubles and triples. If Mason can in fact develop the power that Law is projecting, then his ceiling may very well be higher than a lot of us have predicted, and he could have real 5-tool potential.
Also providing great feedback on Williams was Al Skorupa of Bullpen Banter, who posted a great scouting report of Williams (complete with extensive video). I definitely recommend reading the whole article to get all the details and see the video, but here is Al’s overall assessment:
Williams has some stand out physical gifts and has the potential to become a 5-tool center fielder. His plus bat speed and pretty, left-handed swing should lead to a high AVG with refinements in his approach. Even though his swing isn’t necessarily built for a whole lot of power he showed surprising pop in 2011 and should continue to improve in that area with physical maturation. Fringe average power is probably reachable if his body cooperates in adding muscle. His speed and athleticism add to all facets of his game – turning singles into extra base hits and making him a constant threat to swipe a bag. The speed also benefits him in the field where improved reads, jumps and routes would mean a plus defensive center fielder. If his development continues as expected Williams can become a speedy center fielder who is a dynamic threat at or near the top of the lineup. He possesses a well rounded skill set that can be very valuable to a major league team and he’s one of the more exciting up the middle talents in the lower minors.
Despite all this praise, Williams just missed Bullpen Banter’s top 100, but I imagine they see him as having a lot of helium. The major difference between Al and Keith’s assessment is that Al sees his power ceiling as “fringe average”, whereas Keith sees him having the potential for “real power” (whatever that means).
Regardless of whether you see Williams as a fringe top-100 prospect or a legitimate top-50 guy (I’d probably split the difference), it is evident that he will be a real interesting player to follow. The most common word that I hear associated with Williams is “exciting”, which seems to be an appropriate way to view Williams as a prospect. I certainly look forward to seeing what he can do in Charleston next season, and am hopeful that he can continue to improve.
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Mason is 6’2″ and 175lbs now..Bulking up
so he’s grown 2 inches & added 25 lbs.? how do you know that?
some sites put him at 6’1″ a year ago.
http://www.milb.com/documents/2011/03/22/17072396/1/guide_31-36.pdf
A couple of places have him at 6’2″. Could be a misprint;
http://www.scoutingbook.com/players/p2863
Granderson power? I mean I have high hopes for Yankees prospects as well but that seems like a real long shot. I thought Ravel Santana was supposed to have serious pop in his bat for a CF. Will he even play this year? And whats the story with Heathcott, is he going to play this year?
Projecting Williams as a potential 30-40 homer guy seems like a bit of a stretch to me. That said, Grandy doesn’t exactly look like a power hitter either, so it’s possible for somebody with that type of physique to hit for power. More likely Williams’ ceiling is maxing out in the 15-20 HR range, while hitting for a higher average than Granderson and striking out less.
As for Santana, I have heard conflicting things. Most reports seem to have him likely to be ready for spring training, but Keith Law today seemed to think that he could be out for part of next season. I’m not sure if Keith has up-to-date info on this or if he is just relying on old reports from last season.
I haven’t heard anything about Heathcott recently, but I assume he has been rehabbing from shoulder surgery. It’s not clear whether he’ll be ready for spring training or not, and he might need some time in extended spring training before returning to Tampa (just a guess).
Is hoping one of the Heathcott, Williams, or Santana shoot through the system and in 2 years allows the Yankees the let Granderson walk asking too much?
It’s somewhat optimistic, but not entirely impossible. Williams probably has the best chance of the 3, Santana and Heathcott could possibly be held back by their health issues. It’s likely that Granderson’s immediate replacement (at least in the short term) is Gardner, with a FA/trade acquisition in left.
I still have a bad feeling the Yankees are going to lose there minds and extend Granderson. I’m against it but for some reason I can’t shake the feeling that that’s how they are leaning.
I think they will too. Man I really really hope not. There is no reason to yet, he is under contract this year and has a team option next year. It would make no sense to sign a 33 year old CF so reliant on his foot and bat speed to mask his deficiencies to an extension. How many poor initial reads turned into highlight real catches because of speed? How many homers can a middle aged 180lb man hit? Not enough for what he is going to want to get paid.
I agree. He certainly won’t get extended before his contract runs out, the Yankees just don’t do that. But if he puts up two more years anywhere close to last season I think they would be lured into that trap. I still say the best option is hope he repeats 2011, pick up his 2013 option, and then trade him for a corner outfielder or starter.
Unfortunately I don’t think Yankees would ever do that. If it hurts the clubs chances to win a WS this year, then they wont make the move.
It wouldn’t though. You wouldn’t be trading him for prospects, you trade him for a corner outfielder in move Gardner to CF. Or you trade him for a starting pitcher and sign BJ Upton to play CF. If he has another 40 HR, or high 30 HR season his trade value is going to be pretty high even with only one year of control. You’d just have to find the right match.
I’m actually really high on signing BJ Upton to play CF next offseason even if we keep Granderson for 2013. Either way he replaces Granderson in CF at 28, and if you keep Grandy then Curtis moves to RF and you have the best defensive outfield in baseball. I’d love to see Kevin Long work with Upton and try and get some of his potential out of that bat.
It sounds good here on the forums, but I think they love Granderson too much to trade him. I would really like to see it happen instead of letting him walk, but as long as he doesn’t sign an extension. An outfield of Gardner, Upton, Granderson would be pretty sweet, but I would prefer a Hamels signing over anything.
I don’t see signing Hamels as necessary, practical, or likely. I’m still in the camp that sees Hamels working it out with the Phils, he’s just too important to their future to let go. But if he does hit the market I think enough teams will be in on him, we’ll enough holes to fill, and we’ll still be looking to stay under 189 and he goes somewhere else.
No matter what we still have to find starters for RF and C next year. Even if we re-sign Swisher and Martin I don’t think it leaves the Yankees with the room to go after Hamels without blowing up every other plan they have. Ultimately I would rather go after M. Montero and Upton, or re-sign Martin and go after Upton as opposed to signing Hamels. Even then that may not be practical with staying under 189 million. If I was the Yankees front office though my number 1 free agent priority would be M. Montero. That bat at catcher is just too special not to make a run at, if I didn’t land him it’s be Martin and whoever I could afford for RF.
What is with all the love for Upton? He is not a character guy. The Yanks are trying to move forward with character guys and not make the mistakes of the past. Upton just has a bad attitude.
He’s one of the top 2 or 3 defensive center fielders in all of baseball, has the speed to steal 40+ bases a year, the power to hit 20+ HRs per year, he’s under 30, and the only “attitude” problems he’s ever been accused of is lack of hustle. I’m not about to write a guy off with that kind of talent because of that. Especially a young guy who grew up in a clubhouse with almost no veteran presence. Guys with that much talent need veterans with tons of talent and history on the back of their baseball cards to get the best out of them at times. Let’s not forget at one time Cano was considered lazy and had “attitude problems”. I guess we are just repeating the mistakes of the past when we kept him around. Alex took Cano under his wing, forced him to put in the kind of effort it takes to be great and now he’s the best bat on the team.