(The following is being syndicated from An A-Blog for A-Rod)
I had a dream the other night. In it, the Yankees were in the postseason and they were just rolling through teams, winning more 3-1, 4-2, and 2-0 games than I could have ever imagined. Their starting rotation was absolutely stocked and they turned in gem after gem after gem, making the recent postseason offensive struggles a moot point as the Bombers marched through the playoffs on the strength of their pitching and hoisted the trophy for Title 28. I was in my usual Yankees’ playoff position, standing directly in front of my TV in all my 2009 World Series gear, yelling and screaming and jumping around like a moron. It was a beautiful experience.
Then I woke up, looked around, realized I was still in bed with my sheets and pillows strewn about me, and quickly deduced that it was still early February 2012 and my dream is still over a year away from becoming reality. But in that realization, I also came to the conclusion that this scenario playing out in October of 2013 isn’t that far fetched. As it stands right now, the Yankees have already made great strides towards bolstering their starting rotation for this season and beyond, and they could very well be on the cusp of building a full-fledged “dream” rotation before the calendar turns.
Consider this. The Yankees already have at least 40%, and possibly 60% of that dream rotation already. is still the ace of this staff, still an elite starting pitcher, and will continue to be both of those things for at least the next couple years. , even with the questions about his transition to the AL East and lack of experience, is still a 23-year-old monster right hander with top shelf stuff, a ROY-quality season under his belt, and the ceiling of a #1-#2-type starter long term if he continues to develop his offspeed offerings . And , while not having Pineda-like stuff, exceeded all expectations last year and showed some promise as a potential above-average middle-of-the-rotation guy with his floor as a back-end starter being raised thanks to his improved slider and command
And while the Yankees kept the wallet closed this offseason, the free agent pitching class after this season is potentially deep and very talented, headlined by . $189 million budget or not for 2014, I think it’s safe to say that the Yankees are going to be involved in the bidding for Hamels’ services. It wouldn’t shock me at all if the Yankees went all in for Hamels in a manner similar to the aggressive approach they used in 2008 when they pursued CC. Hamels essentially represents exactly what CC was at the time in ’08, a top shelf lefty with swing-and-miss stuff in the prime of his career, and would give the Yankees a legit 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, while at the same time adding depth to the rotation by bumping Pineda and Nova down a spot.
While Hamels will not come cheap, the last piece of this dream rotation puzzle will. Dirt cheap in fact. Manny Banuelos, the top Yankee prospect, and #13 in all of baseball according to Baseball America, will be coming off his first full season in Triple-A ball. If he bounces back from his walk-plagued 2011 and shows the type of command that made him such a hot prospect, he will have nowhere to go but to the show in 2013. And with his command intact, Banuelos’ ceiling jumps back up to “potential #2/stretch #1″ territory as a starter. There aren’t too many teams who can say that about their 5th starter, and even if he didn’t pitch lights out in his rookie year, Banuelos would still likely be league average at worst.
Should these chips fall where my extended dream sequence assumes they will, the Yankees could hypothetically be looking at a rotation of a #1 starter, a #1A starter, a #1B starter, and two solid #3 starters, which is also known as “What the Phillies had in 2011.” Now that’s if all of these five guys pitched to their highest potential, which is unlikely. But even if they didn’t, the floor wouldn’t be very low with a CC-Hamels-Pineda-Nova-ManBan fivesome either, so worst case scenario the Yankees are still better off than they were this past season. And they would be stocked for the future with their top two still in their primes and the other three still years away from theirs, presumably with room to improve. Having the trio of Pineda-Nova-Banuelos at an extremely low cost and under team control for years would be the icing on the cake, and help cushion the blow of the Hamels contract . It’s a big dream, yes, but it’s the type of dream that the Yankees are perfectly equipped to turn into a reality.
Even if these two scenarios don’t play out, even if the Yankees decide the price is too steep for Hamels, even if they trade ManBan for a young cheap bat, it’s still not out of the realm of possibility for the Yankees to approximate this dream rotation. is a former AL Cy Young winner in his prime, he’ll also presumably be on the FA market, and he could come at a discounted price from Hamels’ tag thanks to concerns about his SAD. Someone from the group of , Adam Warren, and David Phelps could step up, pull a Nova and exceed expectations, and fill out ManBan’s spot on the back end. And even though all signs point to being re-signed by San Fran, the Yankees could wow them with a prospect package and bring Cain in anyway.
In the immortal words of J.P. from “Angels in the Outfield,” “Hey, it could happen.” For as long as the Yankees have been trying to stabilize the rotation, to have it end up with stabilized with this kind of talent would be a dream come true. Right now that scenario is still just a dream, but it’s a dream worth holding onto. If you’re going to dream about the rotation, you might as well dream big.
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Can’t see it happening… Hal seems to be holding back on big contracts. However,with Swisher, Kuroda, Feliciano off the books & then Soriano & Burnett off the following year its possible. But I don’t see it. Especially with the 189 mil threshhold.
Looks more like this in 2013… I think:
CC
Pineda
Nova
Banuelos
Hughes/Betances
which could be pretty good!
I could live with that rotation, and I think a lot of people could if Phil bounces back this year.
But in regards to big contracts, isn’t Hamels the type of pitcher you want to go after for a big contract? He’s light years better than the C.J. Wilson/Mark Buehrle/Yu Darvish buffet from this year.
We don’t need Hamels for dream rotation — we may in fact already have one this year.
Also, I’m not trading Banuelos or Betances for “a bat.”
What if it’s a “big bat”?
Completely ignoring the luxury tax penalty rate reduction of getting under $189 million …
If Arod misses 40 games and Teixeira fizzles out with a repeat of 2011, Cashman’s hand will be forced to prioritize hitting over pitching. I just don’t see how the “dream rotation” gets prioritized when the ML squad has a yr-to-yr DH situation, no long-term solution at Catcher*, and a possible hole in LF if Swisher departs. When Girardi says the team probably needs another hitter, i think Girardi’s hinting towards the general state of future lineups aside from who’s DH’ing in 2012.
* Russell Martin’s .732 OPS bat isn’t a long-term solution.
I’m with you on a .732 OPS in general, but is it really that bad for a catcher? He may not be V-Mart or Jesus, but he’s no Jason Kendall or Jeff Mathis either. He’s actually a great guy to have in the 8 or 9 hole in a stacked offense – which further underscores the Yankees’ need to keep their offense top notch.
Martin has a .757 career OPS, I imagine he can produce numbers closer to that than .732 going forward. Though even if he couldn’t, with a catcher playing the kind of defense he does a .732 OPS with 18 HRs isn’t bad at all. The completely lack of respect for the importance of defense for a catcher is mind boggling. It’s like years of Jorge Posada have made people believe that if a catcher can’t hit like him he’s worthless, and defense doesn’t matter in the least. It’s shocking the kind of disrespect defense gets from the most important defensive position in the game these days.
I would definitely prefer for the Yankees to place their focus – and money – on addressing the offense. Whether that means using the money to re-sign current players or to cover the cost of trade acquisitions, etc. I’m definitely more concerned with the direction the offense is moving in at this point.
So with the early support here leaning away from Hamels and towards a bat, what targets did you guys have in mind to beef up the offense?
I think the Yankees have the depth and resources to pull off another big-time trade without completely wrecking their farm.
Ryan Braun – obv. longshot, but the Brewers could take a big stumble over these next two years.
Pedro Alvarez – a project for sure, but also might not have a very big price tag.
David Wright – I think he’d be revitalized in the Bronx and he’d obviously move A-Rod to DH full-time.
Carlos Gonzalez – maybe a longer shot than Braun
I could definitely go on and on with some more fantasy scenarios. Cargo and Braun are reaches as I said, but when I look at the Brewers, I just don’t see a team that can legitimately compete in 2012 with Braun’s suspension. Then factor in the potential departure of Greinke and Marcum in 2013 and you’re looking at another year that they aren’t going to contend. Add that to a razor thin farm system and we’re talking about a long road of mediocrity.
Braun is signed up through 2020, there is no chance they are going to trade him even with the suspension. It’s a none shot, not a long shot in my mind.
In fact of those 4 only Pedro is even a possibility in my opinion. I see no reason for the Mets to trade Wright to the Yankees, if he turned it around right down the road their fans would never forgive them. The price tag for a trade would have to be so absolutely one sided for the Mets to take that risk the Yankees would never even try it.
You’re probably right, but the Brewers are going to suck for the next several years. Maybe that is too harsh. They will certainly be mediocre though – which is actually worse than sucking.
The Mets are a mess and need to trade David Wright – trading him to the Yanks shouldn’t be a problem even though it will be.
Shoot for the stars though, right?
If they can convince Grienke to re-sign long term they shouldn’t suck, that division is weak enough to compete for the lead every year with minimal moves. I do think they will eventually get Marcum or Grienke to a long term deal, they have all the money they were willing to give Fielder to work with. Though Marcum is probably the more likely between the two.
They probably should trade Wright, and if they decide to do so they will have more than enough suitors to be able to trade him somewhere besides New York. At times making trades is more than just business, it’s also PR. It shouldn’t be but it is. If he produces a season like he did between 05 and 08 on the Yankees Mets fans would burn that stadium to the ground. Wright’s also 30 so I wouldn’t be emptying out the cupboards, which is what it would take to make a cross town trade for the face of that franchise, to get a third baseman on the back half of his career.
You can shoot for whatever you want, the landing won’t always be smooth though.
I’ll change my stance on the Brewers if/when Greinke re-signs. YoGa and Greinke at the top with that offense is enough to win the division. If Greinke and Marcum both leave, I don’t really like their chances to win that division over the Cards and Reds – not to mention the Cubs will likely be in the mix at some point in the near future. Also, anybody outside of the NL East can forget about the wild cards.
Jacoby Ellsbury … cough cough …
If the man plays it smart, he does not sign an extension and plays out ’12 and ’13 in Boston. He’d be 30 by the time he hits FA, but the bidding war will yield Ellsbury a Crawford-like deal. IF the power is real, Ellsbury deserves to get Crawford bucks, and hopefully it’d come from the NYY.
Honestly, what other OF is better than Ellsbury who’ll hit FA in a couple years?? I cant name one.
We need an upgrade in the outfield before 2014, it might not be the best play to make no moves and hope he’s a free agent at that point. We have to address RF this year, and I imagine a Granderson trade or extension will be in the works before that point as well.
I’m still not sure I buy into the power, I have to see it again to believe a guy was so limited in the power department suddenly broke into the 30 HR category. If it is real though there may be no better outfielder in baseball period, how many guys have 30-60 ability in the game? None?
The problem is the free agent market for bats is going to be relatively thin. The best bat you could add in the field would probably be Miguel Montero, but how much better is Montero than Martin when you consider the length and amount of the contract. His swing would be perfect in Yankee Stadium,, probably making him a 20 HR catcher under the age of 30, but are you willing to give 5-6 years for a position with the amount of injury risk catcher carries?
In the OF all the bats available have different question, with no real all around solution available. On the one hand you could sign Delmon Young, who’s under 28, yet hasn’t produced more than 1 season worthy of the position. He has talent but hasn’t produced to this point. The best all around option might be signing BJ Upton to play CF and moving Granderson to RF, or trading Granderson before the final year on his deal runs out. Gardner, Upton, and Granderson gives you the best outfield defense in baseball without a doubt, with some of the best base stealing in baseball, but the bats are lacking in CF and LF. Upton can be a 20 HR centerfielder stealing 40 a year, but he strikes out a lot and unless Long can fix his swing he doesn’t make as much contact as talent suggests he should. Hamilton is a free agent but I think he probably gets re-signed in some fashion, plus he’ll be 32 and is a long term health risk. Andre Ethier has a nice swing for Yankee Stadium, but at 31 he isn’t going to be young, and he’s horrible against left handed pitching. I’d honestly rather re-sign Swisher than bring in Ethier, similar ages and you know what you’re getting with Swish.
Outside of that no one available at 3rd, who doesn’t have an option, is worth signing. None of the DH’s stand out as anything special, and while Erick Aybar is a good SS (and the best available) Jeter is playing SS through at least 2013, probably 2014.
If none of that is attractive you have to trade Betances and/or Banuelos for a bat of some kind.
Miguel Montero is a significant enough upgrade over Martin to warrant offering Montero a Posada-type deal. Just hoping Miguel Montero realizes the cash-in opportunity that’d await him if he shows he can play 140 games at catcher. Such a waste to sign an extension with a team like AZ.
You hit the nail on the head with that last line. For the right bat, I’ll pack ManBan’s and Betances’ bags myself. Has to be the right bat though.
Pineda makes that possible, which is probably part of Cashman’s thinking going forward. He knows the best bats in the near future are going to be added through trades, and with Jesus gone our best trade chips going forward at Banuelos, Betances, and prbably Sanchez and Williams. I’d love to see the bidding war that would start if the Reds are forced to trade Joey Votto. I’d throw Votto in RF until Tex’s contract expires to get that bat in Yankee Stadium.
You don’t trade Betances and/or Banuelos for a “bat of some kind.” For one thing, we have other trade bait. With a good spring, Hughes would be desirable deadline piece Yanks could afford to move. Joba is another possibility once he returns. At least there, you’re trading pitchers who only have one-plus year of remaining control. And I don’t think the Yankees need to make a big splash with a bat. A solid contact hitter to balance some of the free-swinging tendencies would suffice and also help in the post-season. Apart from that, Yanks could re-sign Swisher, easing immediate need. If they do, all they really need in next two years is back-up for A-Rod. And I’m not giving up two of the five best pitching prosects this organization has produced in the last 15 years to get Ty Wigginton.
By 2014, JR Murphy and Mason Williams (rushed a bit) should help. And possibly a bat like Corban Joseph or David Adams too. I would think Cash will be able to secure what’s needed -not a big name slugger — at a much more reasonable price than ManBan/Dellin.
HAHA Who said trade Betances and/or Banuelos for Ty Wigginton?
Joba is a middle reliever, coming off of TJ surgery, who won’t be able to pitch in the major leagues until June or July. You aren’t trading him for any kind of bat that will make an impact of any kind this year. In fact you likely can’t trade him for much of anything at this point since the Yankees have plummeted his value by openly saying he will never be a starter in New York. Even teams who see him as a starter won’t admit as much to the Yankees and won’t pay that kind of price tag.
If Hughes has a good enough spring to middle of the year to warrant being traded for a nice bat, the Yankees are going to keep him. If he shows the ability to be a number 3-4 starter they have no need to trade him. He’d be an under 30 middle of the rotation arm, one who happens to be loved by every member of the front office. If they do want to trade him it will be because he has again failed to establish himself in the rotation and no team will give up anything of worth for him.
Swisher is going to get offers of 5 years from some team, he’s played at the kind of level over the last 3 years to deserve that kind of contract. He will be 37 by the time that contract is finished, I like Swisher’s skill set with the bat to age well over the course of his career but not his defense. At a certain point he is going to be a .360 OBP, 20-23 HR, every day DH. I certainly wouldn’t offer him anything more than 3 years if I were the Yanks, and I wouldn’t take that if I was Swisher because I know I can get the extra year to two years somewhere. In this game of guaranteed contracts those extra two years mean a ton, especially to someone who already has a ring.
At the current moment we don’t even know if JR Murphy or Mason Williams will ever even play in the major leagues, let alone “help” the offense in any real way. Neither has played above A ball, and while I believe in Murphy he posted a .634 OPS in A+ last year.
I get the prospect love you have for Betances and Banuelos, you probably hated trading Montero and now don’t want to lose another one. But that isn’t reason enough to make a blanket statement that you aren’t trading either one. No one is suggesting trading them for Ty Wigginton, expect you, and no one is saying trade them for scrapes. However if you can trade one of them for a good upside young bat, or both for a high end established young bat you do it.
I for one think at the end of the day that Betances is going to be a reliever, I’ve been very open with that. With Banuelos however I think he has the chance to be a very nice number 2 starter in the mold of Gio Gonzalez. That is worth a lot, and I wouldn’t de-value that by trading him for just anything. But no one is untouchable and in the right deal all pieces are for sale. Montero for Pineda only further solidifies that point.
The Yankees are going to face some serious questions on the offensive side of the ball in the next few years, much more than a “solid contact hitter” could ever solve. Having two prospects like Banuelos and Betances can solve those problems very easily, but again not unless the right deal at the right time comes along.
The swisher contract is going to be a tricky one bc everyone is hesitant to overpay in lieu of Arod and Teixeira* contracts. Swisher’s skill set is valuable to the lineup at the 6 spot, but I too would pass if a team swooped in with a 5 year offer. I don’t go beyond a 4 year obligation, and i’d try as h*ll to get that 4th year a team option/lucrative buy-out clause.
* Shoot me if you want to. Teixiera’s bat has disappointed me in consecutive seasons.
I won’t be the one shooting you, Reggie. I agree with that statement about Teix 100%.
It’s been a pretty big drop off from where he was just the season before he became a Yankee, and it’s definitely been disappointing in that respect.
Work on your reading comprehension skills, TOC, as you seem to specialize in misreading what other people say.
So instead of being belittling are you going to actually further the conversation?
You were the one who said “And I’m not giving up two of the five best pitching prosects this organization has produced in the last 15 years to get Ty Wigginton.”.
I understand this is hyperbole but I think it’s ridiculous to try and act as if I meant anything close to this.
I also understand you said “F the Yankees traded him…”, but if you follow that with accusing the Yankees tail of wagging the dog it’s not a misinterpretation. You were on some level saying that was a big factor in the trade.
What does the 2014-15 free agent class look like? If the Yankees sit out next year’s free agent hoopla to get under the threshold, who is there to make a splash the following season?
Ooooh, just saw Clayton Kershaw is a free agent after 2014. Assuming LA doesn’t resign or trade him.
There is maybe a 1-3% chance Kershaw hits the market. The Dodgers ownership will be completely solved by that point, there is no reason to but into a team that just gave Kemp 160 million and not re-sign Kershaw to whatever kind of deal it takes.
Agree on Kershaw. Also, increasingly unrealistic to expect Yanks to pounce on every available big-name free agent. While Yanks will need to find an outfielder and possibly two by 2014, I am more concerned about how A-Rod threatens to distort decision-making and eventually both the defensive and offensive line-up. How far will Yanks go to keep him on field as his skills decline? If they traded Montero to keep DH spot open for A-Rod, that’s the tail already wagging the dog. I really believe that at some point in next three or four years Yanks will have to cut A-Rod loose. For that reason, I would prioritize finding a third-baseman– though he probably won’t really be needed for at least a year. Bichette is probably four years away, so Yanks will have to fill that gap.
As of now Alex has shown no real decline in the field, in fact last year was one of his best years at third. He’s become quite reliable with the glove when healthy, which is why I don’t agree with some of the talk about moving him to DH full time now. As of this moment he is a very good fielding third baseman who gets hurt a lot in the batters box. They will likely keep him at third, while seeing more and more time at DH each year, until he physically can’t handle it anymore and he moves more full time to DH.
Saying they “traded Montero to keep DH open for Alex” is incredibly simplistic in my view. Many factors went into trade Montero, none more than the fact that we found someone who was willing to trade us a 23 year old, potential future ace in return for him. This wasn’t a case of dumping a guy for no return, or looking to trade Montero at all costs. This was a team who likely never thought Montero was going to stick as a catcher in the major leagues, showed several times they were open to the idea of trading Montero, and finally found someone willing to give them a package too good to pass up in return, and pull the trigger. Trading for Michael Pineda, whatever you think of him or Montero, is not the tail wagging the dog.
We’ll have to see how Alex’s body and skills hold up before I start to consider that an option. Where we stand now I don’t think they are even considering letting Alex go early. It would be hard to simply eat all that money, we may get to that point, but it’s a little early to start planning it now.
I do agree finding someone to play third would be nice eventually, though as you mentioned that’s a year or more out.
I would currently not even plan of Bichette being an answer long term. I look at him more as an extra plus, nothing to look forward too though. He has a long way to go both with the bat and the glove before we pencil him in as the future at 3B.
Since this has more or less become an offensive thread it looks like the Yankees have inked Bill Hall to a minor league deal, and are in serious discussions with Raul Ibanez which look like they will lead to a contract. Apparently Ibanez is willing to take less money to sign with the Yankees, if I had to bet I would think that gets done in the next couple of days.
I would’ve much rather had Jerry Hairston Jr, and even Wilson Betemit would’ve been a better option, but I can’t complain about Hall on a minor league deal. If he makes the team and can come close to the season he had with the Sox in 2010 that’s not terrible coming off the bench, it’s not great but it’s not bad. I don’t see anyway he beats out Nunez as the first man off the bench, so he may have a hard time actually making the team but we’ll see what happens.
Ibanez I actually like. If he can hit 20-25 HRs and combine with Jones to be the DH pair there is value in that, and that can keep the DH position a float until we can re-evaluate things come the all-star break and trade deadline.
The “Dream Rotation” of 2013 has gotten hijacked by “Dream Lineup” talk. I think we’re all on the same wavelength here … we’re all concerned with the future of the lineup. The reasons are slightly different, but I think we’re all okay with a CC-Pineda-Nova rotation in the long term, and hoping Banuelos or Betances can make an impact.
Losing Montero has left a serious hole in future lineups however and its starting to dawn on all of us.
I’m loving all the discussion here, fellas. Just shocked that a rotation post sparked such heavy future lineup talk.
But you guys have convinced me. My eyes are definitely opened.
I still don’t feel anything but happiness in regards to trading Montero. I never saw him being able to play C long term and there was no spot in the future lineup for Montero to play, so we don’t really have anymore of a hole than we would with him.
With or without Montero Alex was still going to slowly become a DH, Granderson, Cano, and Swisher were still going to become free agents, Jeter was still going to be around through the 2014 season, and some people are still always going to complain about a first baseman playing above average defense and hitting 39 HRs. The only difference is we would have a player with no position he was able top play in the field, and very little time available at DH, and we wouldn’t have one of the most promising young arms in baseball.
If anything trading Montero for Pineda and Campos just gave us more ability to trade for a young bat when the needs starts to become pressing in the future.
I also am not nearly as concerned as some about the future of the lineup. There are questions to be addressed, but there are always questions to be addressed on a baseball team. For the next year or two we are still one of the top 5 or so offenses in the game, and if the rotation continues to develop in the direction we all hope a slip from that won’t be devastating.
I think many fan are just so accustomed to having a top 3 offense and terrible rotation they have no idea how to look into the future without that being the plan.
I said “IF they traded Montero….” I realize the main reason they traded Montero was to get young stud Pineda. Still, we have been hearing for years –and from virtually every professional sportwriting source — that the Yanks want to keep the DH position open for A-Rod (and perhaps others). So it’s resonable to asuume this was part of the calculation.
We’ll have to agree to disagree on A-Rod. Yes, he did have a good year in the field last year but his offense after he came back last summer was worse than dreadful. With any further hip issues — which are certainly possible — his defense could deteriorate rapidly. Makrk my words. At some point in next three or four years, the question of cutting A-Rod will loom large. And what good does it do to clog a roster space with a non-productive player? The money will be lost in any case. Yanks will have to swallow the cost and move on.
Last message directed to TOC– missed the reply button, I guess
Last year wasn’t indicative of his offensive ability. Every time he started to get hot last year he suffered another injury set back. Between the hip, the shoulder, and the knee he never had a chance. Could that be the case for the rest of his career? Sure it could. Am I willing to say that’s all he’ll ever be? no.
As I’ve said before after watching the way Kobe Bryant has come back from his surgery in Germany I am encouraged for Alex for the next season. I don’t know how he will hold up after that, none of us do, but I’m not willing to write him off just yet. The man still has all the talent in the world, anyone trying to say different doesn’t understand baseball. If he can manage to stay healthy in some form, a big question I admit, he still has productive years ahead of him.