2012 Yankee Bullpen Ain’t Half Bad

By On February 13, 2012 · 6 Comments · In Roster Decisions

The Yankees basically didn’t change a thing in their bullpen heading into next season. Their only real change they brought in involves a long relief pitcher (likely Freddy Garcia or Phil Hughes) and possibly Rule V pick on the back end. The remaining group, with their 2011 statistics:

  • Mariano Rivera – 61 1/3 innings, 232 ERA+
  • David Robertson – 66 2/3 innings, 410 ERA+
  • Rafael Soriano – 39 1/3 innings, 108 ERA+
  • Boone Logan – 41 2/3 innings, 129 ERA+
  • Cory Wade – 39 2/3 innings, 157 ERA+

Those guys, plus Joba Chamberlain when he returns, will likely be responsible for the vast majority of innings that actually matter in relief of their starting pitchers over the course of the 2012 season. Even if injuries occur, the call ups are unlikely to get a lot of the truly meaningful innings. This is an important distinction, as relief innings tend to be highly selective. The performance of these guys is what matters.

We can assume that Rafael Soriano and David Robertson’s performances will regress toward their mean levels. I think that Soriano, in particular, is a good bet to improve quite a bit next season. His upside is good enough that it will make up for the inevitable downside as David Robertson’s ERA+ comes back to levels that real human beings can maintain. On top of that, you’ll see Cory Wade and Rafael Soriano pitch more innings than they did last year, replacing both Luis Ayala’s great innings and Hector Noesi and various other pitcher’s bad innings. On net, all indicators seem likely to even out.

I think you have a blueprint for the best bullpen in baseball. In fact, I think the Yankees are the best by a pretty wide margin. Obviously, there is a wide degree of variability at stake here, but the Yankees are on paper pretty darn good. They may or may not go into the season with the best lineup or starting pitching in baseball, but the bullpen should help break any ties that the Yankees hold with their competitors.

And the best part? Logan, Wade, and Robertson are all relatively cheap players, helping to make up for the colossal mistake that the Yankees made by signing Rafael Soriano to an extremely player-friendly deal. The Yankees didn’t have to get to the point they are by going out and overspending for one of the many expensive free agent relief pitchers next year. If Logan or Wade or even Robertson don’t work out, they have the flexibility to try out someone else.

 
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6 Responses to 2012 Yankee Bullpen Ain’t Half Bad

  1. Michael P. says:
    February 13, 2012 at 4:27 pm

    Bullpen should be just as good or perform better than last years. Mo is a machine, Soriano should be better than last year, we went over Robertson in a previous article and I don’t expect that much of a regression. Then you factor in Logan, who the knock against him is that hes a pretty good overall reliever, but not a LOOGY, Wade, and probably Garcia as a long man, it sets up very well. Joba returning later in the season will be nice to give the big guys a rest in low leverage situations as he tries to find himself returning from injury.

    My main question is if we will be revisiting this and saying “man if Phil Hughes can’t start and we have to put him in the pen, where does he even fit?”

    Reply
  2. ADam says:
    February 13, 2012 at 4:33 pm

    In all probability you can add Hughes to that list as well

    Reply
  3. says:
    February 13, 2012 at 5:02 pm

    The real best part is we didn’t get the damn second lefty

    Reply
    • Michael P. says:
      February 13, 2012 at 5:18 pm

      We might have if they feel like this Cesar Cabral kid is worth carrying. I would say he is worth a hard look i mean hes young, lefty, and throws pretty hard apparently. Why not give him a real chance to make the bullpen? Its not like with Mo, Robertson, and Soriano he would see many high leverage situations anyway.

      Reply
  4. entonces says:
    February 14, 2012 at 5:58 pm

    For all the babble about the fungibility of relief pitchers, the truth is you need a top-notch pen to win. As you say, Yanks look good with current pen, and they’ll have many young arms ready to step up if needed as well.

    Reply

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