Having Phaith in Phil

By On January 4, 2012 · 9 Comments · In Projections

Going into the 2011 season, I expected to complement Sabathia at the top of the Yankees’ rotation. Phil was our number two. A year later I find myself refreshing twitter and a smorgasbord of blogs to see who Cashman and company chose to replace Hughes. The once top pitching prospect that Baseball America called a “homegrown ace”, now fights for a rotation spot only five years after reaching the big leagues.

It appears Hughes failed in 2011, whether it be injury or lack of training, an obvious decline in velocity arose in March and haunted the rest of his season. Velocity can reemerge, as Hughes found out in 2011, but many of us Yankee fans have reached the point where we don’t expect him to encompass a top of the rotation pitcher. Has Hughes suffered from a lack of velocity, or is he a different pitcher from the ace BA predicted?

PitchFX clocked Hughes’ average fastball velocity per game started at 91.07 mph in 2011. With the data available from the last five years, this average velocity compares with his 2007 season (91.32 mph) and 2008. (91.25) Is there any FIP correlation with those seasons? The FIPs from those seasons all fall within the same range, in 2007 Hughes finished with a 4.48 FIP, in 2008 4.46 FIP, and in 2011 a 4.48 FIP as a starter.

A FIP in the mid 4’s may not be ideal, but when his FIP’s were compared to upper velocity stretches, especially those in 2010, there is reason to be optimistic. In 2010 he increased his average fastball velocity per start to 92.52 mph and maintained a 4.34 FIP. However, in the games started where he averaged over the 92.52 mph (75.0 IP), he sported a 3.53 FIP.

2011 held similar correlating results for Hughes. The first 3 games he averaged 89.38 mph on his four-seamer with an 8.79 FIP, in 10.1 IP, a very small sample size before he was pulled from the rotation. When Hughes returned he bumped his velocity to 91.53 mph and posted a 3.72 FIP through 61.1 IP. Not only does that help show how big of an impact Hughes’ velocity contributes to his success, it shows how he remains capable of posting top of the rotation numbers.

Perhaps Hughes’ inconsistent velocity is the difference between calling him the Yankees’ homegrown ace and calling him their latest flop. So what can we expect from him next year? I’m optimistic after seeing the correlation between his velocity and FIP. Hughes and the Yankees may feel the same considering their apparent patience with him, as compared to players named Joba. Of course Hughes could come back to spring training next year and sport the low 80’s fastball he showed off last year. However, we know Hughes is working hard at the with . The last time he worked out there was 2009 where he bumped his average fastball velocity per game from 91.25 mph to 92.25 mph.

Assuming Hughes steers clear of any more health problems and his hard work at API pays off, I feel the Bill James 3.82 FIP and 3.71 ERA may be an accurate prediction. His brilliance in the 2011 season is masked by the failures in the first 3 games. That 3.72 FIP after returning to the Yankees rotation last season shows that his mechanics, pitch selection, and dumping his slider for a cutter have paid off. For 2012, Phil is still my number two.

For anyone interested in the PitchFx/FIP stats I’ve uploaded the spreadsheet here.

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9 Responses to Having Phaith in Phil

  1. Eric Schultz says:
    January 4, 2012 at 1:13 pm

    Great first article Michael. I agree that there may be reason to be optimistic on Hughes if you believe that he can recover the lost velocity (perhaps by being in better shape going into the season). A bounceback year is quite possible.

    Reply
  2. Bean Tooth says:
    January 4, 2012 at 1:28 pm

    I wish it were as simple as velocity. Even when he’s able to dial it up, Hughes still seems incapable of putting hitter’s away. Even before the drop-off, we saw the time-and-again pattern of getting a quick two strikes and then failing to either getting the K or a quick out in the field. Instead it was foul ball after foul ball, until inevitably something bad happened. While I do believe he can be better then he’s been, my gut tells me his problems have more to do with learning to pitch effectively as a major league starter than his raw stuff.

    Reply
  3. Professor Longnose says:
    January 4, 2012 at 1:55 pm

    I have faith in fill–that someone will fill the rotation spot better than Hughes. (Sorry, couldn’t resist. I’m actually happy to read an optimistic prediction for Phil.)

    Reply
  4. Marcus says:
    January 4, 2012 at 4:11 pm

    Great post! I haven’t seen anyone draw conclusions the way you did. Looking forward to reading more from you in the future.

    Reply
  5. Mike D. says:
    January 4, 2012 at 4:39 pm

    Great first post, Michael. In addition to the relation between Hughes’ FIP and velocity, there is a correlation between his velocity and the linear weighted wFB. From 2009 to 2011, his wFB has been: 11.4, 14.6, 5.3, while his average fastball velocity has been: 93.8, 92.6, 91.3. It makes complete sense that along with a higher wFB in 2010-2011, he had a better FIP, as well.

    Reply
  6. RYan says:
    January 4, 2012 at 5:23 pm

    Hughes was forced to work on his offspeed pitches last year, apparently adding a harder curv with a different grip, I swear i saw a few Changeups that were pretty decent as well. Maybe last year taught him a few things besides just gasing is by people. If hughes velocity comes back to 2010 form he could be in for a big year.

    Reply
  7. Steve S. says:
    January 4, 2012 at 10:12 pm

    Nice maiden post, Michael. I’m in the camp that thinks Phil is a lost cause as a Yankee starter, and its not just based on 2011. I did a post a few months ago where I broke down his ERA as starter home and away and found he’s been abysmal in Yankee stadium with an 5.88 ERA. It’s not an accident, he’s right handed and an extreme fly ball pitcher. Those two traits often don’t play well in YS3.

    As you noted, he’s better when he has his good FB. The way to ensure he has it more often than not is to send him to the bullpen, where he maintains his high FB rates but misses bats much more often.

    Reply
  8. Paul says:
    January 5, 2012 at 10:05 am

    Really enjoyed the post. I am cautiously optimistic about Hughes but have concerns over how much less effective his curve had seemingly become over the years. I am curious about the so-called “Verducci effect”. Last year Hughes was a pte-season candidate for an injury/problem based on that list. Any thoughts on that or if pitchers who have similarly been on that list and had problems have rebounded?

    Reply
  9. Cameron says:
    January 5, 2012 at 3:56 pm

    God I hope you’re right.

    Reply

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