Watching the new prospects is my favorite part of spring training. Unless you’re a Trenton or Scranton local, very few of us watch the actual players throw, field, or hit the ball. For me, prospects personify all the statistics and splits I’ve studied, but with a grinning thumbnail. March is when our favorite statistics become real baseball players and it’s exciting to imagine them in a Yankee uniform.
Cesar Cabral knows his bullpen candidates. Do you? Courtesy of Elsa/Getty Images
Outside of Montero, a new position player earning a promotion to the big leagues is a long shot. Barring injury or a gruesome performance, the five starting pitchers have been penciled in. This leads us to the bullpen, and assuming the 25-man roster carries Cervelli as a third catcher, only two slots are vacant. The Yankees have to decide between adding a second LOOGY, long man, or one of the ever so deserving relief pitchers from Scranton.
Brad Meyers and Cesar Cabral, this year’s two Rule 5 draftees, are the first pieces to target. In case you don’t know the draft rules, players selected must remain on the 25-man major league roster for the whole season and they must be active for 90 days. If they don’t make the team in April, the Yankees will lose Meyers and Cabral, which gives the pitchers the best opportunity to make the team.
Although Meyers was a starter most of his minor league career, Cashman stated that he will compete for a spot as the long man. In 2009, he was named the Nationals minor league pitcher of the year, but also suffered a serious stress fracture in his foot which shortened both his 2009 and 2010 season. He remained healthy in the 2011 season, posting solid rebound numbers. With a low 90’s fastball, a slider and a change-up, Meyers has the ability to strikeout hitters and maintain a high ground-ball rate.
Unlike Meyers, left-handed Cabral has experience out of the bullpen, though not exclusively as a LOOGY. With the Red Sox, he owned a raw low 90’s fastball, a plus changeup, a curveball and a slider. You might not be impressed by his ERA, but he was a victim to low LOB% and high BABIP. He’s been more consistent according to FIP, he isn’t homerun prone, and his K/9 is impressive.
Courtesy of Martin Griff / The Times of Trenton
This offseason, Cashman also signed lefties , another Red Sox reliever, and Mike O’Connor to minor league deals. Though they spent the majority of their 2011 seasons in the minors, the also have major league experience, and neither of them have played the game as a LOOGY. Yankee fans should be more familiar with Okajima, a flyball and finesse pitcher. When you consider his stellar AAA season, he’s a decent gamble on a minor league deal. The same could be said for Mike O’Connor, who is also a flyball finesse guy who throws high 80’s. 2010 was his first year relieving, hosting a 2.95 FIP with the AAA Bisons and boosting his K/9 from the 6’s to 8.92. He continued the trend in 2011 with a 9.85 K/9 and a 3.47 FIP.
Two other players who signed on minor league deals are righties Adam Miller and . Mike Axisa at River Ave Blues had a detailed summary on Adam Miller’s upside and his odd career thus far. Miller landed on Baseball America’s top 100 5 times, most recently in 2009, but finger and arm problems persisted until he had ligament surgery on his wrist. He returned to the mound last year with a 4.65 FIP in A+ and 3.59 in AA but with some control issues. He still shows a mid 90’s fastball, but how his slider and changeup play out with his new finger ligament remain to be seen. The best prediction for Miller is as a long man or a matchup guy, but the chance appears slim that he rebounds to the rotation.
Matt Daley came up as a reliever in the Rockies organization, but was born in Queens and grew up on Long Island. He sports a high 80’s/low 90’s fastball, a curveball and a changeup. With the Rockies, he held a 3.65 FIP in 2009, 4.32 FIP in 2010. Daley struggled in 2011, through only 6.1 IP, due to a sore shoulder that he eventually had surgery on. Considering the impact shoulder injuries have on pitchers, Daley is a long shot, but one that’s shown success in the bigs and might be inspired playing for a home team.
This leaves us with the long-deserved Scranton bunch. For the long man, starting pitchers D.J. Mitchell and David Phelps have the best chance at promotion out of the Yankees farm system. Although Phelps is the better prospect, Mitchell has a better shot as a move to the bullpen might hurt Phelps’ value. If you’re reading TYA, you should be familiar with both of these guys but in case you forgot their repertoires, Mitchell is a low 90’s four-seamer, two-seamer, curveball, change up, and slider groundball pitcher. Phelps has a little more heat to his fastball, with the same pitch selection, though his curveball earns more swing and misses. Phelps is older, by a year, and would be in the big leagues for most other organizations, but it’s hard to imagine the Yankees would risk his value as a starting pitcher. Without a trade partner for him and with a wealth of depth in the system, it’s a possibility we finally see him on the mound.
The last two prospects and two more names you should know, and manned the Scranton bullpen and earned their MLB debuts last year. With the improvement in his command, Whelan had somewhat of a breakout season, posting 23 saves, a 9.29 K/9 rate, and finally lowering his BB/9 to 2.41. He throws a fastball mid to low 90’s with the ability to hit high 90’s, a plus splitter, and a rarely seen slider. Kontos is a converted starter who saw big improvements in 2011, upping his K/9 to 9.17 and posting a 2.62 ERA. (With the help of some BABIP and LOB%) He’s a fastball/slider pitcher part of the Yankees’ 2006 pitching prospect draft haul, ranking with , , , , , and . As righties, both pitchers would prevent the Yankees from carrying at least one long man or LOOGY.
Of course, anything can happen in spring training, so this is far from a comprehensive list of possibilities. I know, I know, no , but there is still reason to be excited. Cashman targeted and landed a few great long men and LOOGY lottery tickets. With the pitching depth in the system already, we’ll see a flood of relief pitching candidates in March. Who do you think will earn a 25-man roster spot?∓
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Matt Daley has spent his whole career thus far with the Rockies, not the Indians. He was with the big league team ’09 through the ’11 season.
Thanks for the correction!
My guess is Okajima, only because the Yanks tend to prefer vets over rookies, especially ones with AL East/playoff experience.
As to who my preference is…I have no idea. We gotta see them in spring training first. Only five more boring weeks until baseball comes back.
Setting my time machine for 5 weeks.
Take me with you. This non-baseball crap is getting old.
Something about Cabral intrigues me, so I am going to go with him. Very interesting and informative post, thank you.
My guess is that Cabral will impress in spring training and join the bullpen. He had a GREAT winter and had some nasty stats/splits vs lefties. I think this is where the Yanks can use the extra help in the pen. They are set otherwise and have a number of candidates internally and externally for the long-man role. If the Yanks can still land another starter, you might see Garcia or Hughes there. If they do not, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Yanks bring back Colon for that role.
Cesar Cabral is my favorite