As it has been for many offseasons of yore, starting pitching figures to be on the Yankees’ radar as they look to improve their team over the winter. and are shoo-ins for rotation spots, with , AJ Burnett, and in line to compete for the 3, 4, and 5 spots barring an acquisition. Few observers expect the Yankees plan to go to war with the current quintet of starters, and believe that the Yankees will acquiring a mid-rotation starter or frontline guy on the trade market or via free agency. The acquisition of a Yu Darvish or a (for instance) would push the 3-5 spots back, forcing a competition between Garcia, Hughes, and Burnett for two rotation spots.
has largely flown under the radar as a serious rotation option for 2012, despite serving quite capably as a swingman in the bullpen last season. Back in October, Larry analyzed Noesi’s repertoire, finding that he flashed 4 pitches, generating above-average whiff rates with 3 of them. We assume that Noesi’s fastball velocity probably played up in the bullpen, where he averaged 93 with the fastball.
However, reports of his performance this offseason in the Liga de Beisbol Dominicano should perhaps make Phil Hughes and AJ Burnett start to watch their backs. According to tweets from David of Yankee Source, recent reports had Noesi sitting consistently 93-95 with his fastball as a starter in the DR, and even topping out at 96-97 on occasion. This velocity would be faster than what he was averaging out of the bullpen this year, so if this jump is sustainable then we could all be in for a pleasant surprise.
To my knowledge, Noesi has never shown that type of velocity at any point in his career, especially as a starter, so seeing an uptick like that is certainly encouraging. He’s certainly young enough that a mechanical tweak or better conditioning could contribute to better velocity. It may also be worthy of some skepticism, (in this day in age, it’s hard to avoid fears of illegal Dominican milkshakes or stem cells from ‘s corpulent caboose, especially because Noesi already had a 50-game PED suspension in the minors). Additionally, it’s easy to be skeptical of velocity readings if you’re not sure about the reliability of the radar gun involved, and you wonder if Noesi was sacrificing command for heat.
The numbers don’t really support the idea that Noesi is selling out control for velocity, as so far in the DR he is 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA, 45 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings, and 45 strikeouts against 22 walks. The level of competition in the DR is not major league caliber (though there are plenty of quality minor leaguers and some major leaguers too), but Noesi has certainly done well against the competition he is facing.
We have seen Noesi have success throughout his career by working in the low-90′s and mixing in his secondary offerings, such as his slider and changeup (not so much this season) to keep hitters on their toes. With his 2011 repertoire, envisioning Noesi as a potential #4 starter was not out of the question. However, if Noesi can really hit 93-95 with command and continue to use his secondary offerings, you don’t need comprehension skills north of the Nelson Line to envision him as a #3 in this rotation. It may be overly optimistic to expect him to make the kind of leap that Ivan Nova did in 2011, but then again, nobody expected Nova to be that good that quickly, and Noesi’s minor league career has been better than Nova’s. In any case, Phil and AJ had best protect their (fat and tattooed respectively) necks.
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Been a fan of Noesi for awhile, and I am hoping he gets a crack at the rotation. I was very pissed he only got a few starts last year. He looks like he’ll be next seasons Nova, only with a better K/9 ratio.
According to John Harper of the Daily News (a couple days ago), Cashman told him that Noesi was hitting 98.
Or Cashman is blowing smoke, so other teams will not think the Yankees feel urgency about trading (and paying more) for a starter. So much of what GMs say is gamesmanship. Believe it in spring training when Noesi shows up throwign in the upper 90s.
What could cause such an uptick in non-enhanced velocity?
From all reports he was sitting in the low 90′s as a starter, to go from that to mid 90′s is quite incredible to say the least.
It could very well be a mechanical adjustment/improvement.
I would be skeptical of that answer. Plenty of pitchers clean up their mechanics every year without grabbing an extra 5 MPH+ on their velocity. Plus he’s always been a guy with very good control, so it isn’t like he was all over the place with his mechanics to begin with. These reports have him adding quite a bit of velocity as a starter from his bullpen velocity, which is certainly not something you see very often without a growth spurt of some kind.
I’d be more apt to believe he hit the gym and started working more on core strength than mechanics. We’ll just have to wait and see if the reports can be corroborated, and if it can if it’s sustainable.
But it’s precisely what happened with Mariano Rivera in 1995. All of a sudden he was throwing 95-96, whereas he’d been in the low 90s.
His uptick in speed could also be explained, as briefly mentioned in the post, by inconsistent/improperly calibrated radar guns or improper use of them. Guess we’ll find out in Spring Training.
I’d love to see Noesi take a spot in the rotation. Great that a couple of youngsters have the opportunity to contribute to the team going forward, with more waiting in the wings.
He also said he simply discovered the cutter one day. Mariano also didn’t go on to be a successful starter because of that velocity. I try not to spend too much time comparing anyone to Mariano, or basing anything someone might do off of what happened to Mo.
This is great news, and could explain the Yankees’ slow playing all their offseason activity surrounding improving the rotation. Why spend millions if you think you’ve got something special to bolster the rotation from within?
Noesi was already the frontrunner to be this year’s Nova with A.J. and Hughes on short leashes and a crowded Triple-A rotation. It would be a shame to have him waste another year in the bullpen, although I would still take a conservative approach to managing his innings in 2012 if he does become a regular part of the rotation.
Great report, Eric. Thanks for sharing your informative take. I would only add that I always find it interesting in almost every analysis I’ve seen that are CC and Ivan are always the only two described as “locks” for the rotation with the rest “competing.” Surely by now we’ve all learned that, barring a major injury or trade deal, AJ is a lock as well in the minds and plans of Joe G and Brian, as is likewise Freddy. Phil vs Hector et al is the only competition I can see in the coming ST rotation equation.
I agree on AJ, but I have read several times that Brian considers Freddy both a starter and someone who could become a competent long man. I would think it would take a crowded rotation, someone like Phil coming in with crisp location, consistent velocity, and spectacular results to knock him to the pen. But it seems to be an option they are willing to go with when it comes to Freddy.
In the event the rotation is flush, I understand the FO sees Freddy as a versatile asset who could be a long man who could step in as an emergency sport starter if needed, as do I. But if my arithmetic is correct, with CC, Ivan and AJ locks — and barring another flirtation with the six-man rotation again — wouldn’t both Phil AND Hector have to wow them to bump Freddy into that role?
I personally don’t believe Cashman plans on going into the year with this rotation. whether by free agency or trade my belief has always been at least a middle of the rotation arm will be added.
If my belief ends up unfounded then yes, both would have to bump Freddy. Though in that case I don’t think it will happen. They would rather have Freddy start in the rotation and bump him some time in the season, if Hector proves himself to be a starter or they acquire someone at the break.
I agree, both on Cashman’s hoped-for intention to find an arm he can add that makes sense, and also the unlikely eventuality both Phil and Hector bump Freddy — not that I wouldn’t love to see lightning stike twice, but just don’t see Hector’s innings getting stretched that far, even if he has a remarkable ST. Thank you for clarifying.
I agree Noesi is pitching very well. But, I look at this similar to Joba. Have him keep RP, with some spot SP, and maximize that arm!
Maximizing his arm would be to make him a full fledged starter. A simply pen piece who can spot start doesn’t have near the max value as even a mediocre starter does.
I still believe that Joba should be a starter. But we probably shouldn’t open that can of worms again.
Keep the kids coming.
I don’t consider Noesi a darkhorse. He pitched well last year to make the team. He’s definitely got the stuff. And with the exception of CC everybody is going to have to compete. I don’t particularly see AJ coming back. Not if the Yankees can find a suitable trade. One has to think that if Noesi can crack the rotation, Nova can sustain his rookie year and Hughes can once again be Philhty you keep Freddie and move AJ via trade even if you have to eat partial contract for the two years remaining. AJ at best belongs in the NL. So Noesi making the rotation wouldn’t be a surprise keep AJ would.
AJ is staying. I think to believe he is going to be traded is misguided. They’ve shown no signs of moving AJ yet, all indications are he will be back and in the rotation. I’m sure they could find a partner for Burnett in trade , but you can count on AJ for 33 starts well ahead of Noesi. Let’s not forget Noesi had a mid 4 ERA and a 1.5 WHIP in the pen. He is no guarantee to be even better than AJ, and he should have a innings limit on him as well.
Also it’s quite a bit to ask for to expect Nova to has no regression, Noesi to take a huge jump as a first year starter, Phil to regain his stuff (he’s never been filthy as a starter for a full season), and have Freddy pitch as well as next year. Whether we do or not, the Yankees value the innings and the ability to start every 5 days AJ gives them.
Cashman said himself teams were willing to trade for Burnett last year but they valued the innings more than the return.
I will be shocked if this turns out to be anything beyond a badly calibrated radar gun.
The uptick in velocity is not THAT much of an increase to think it’s not possible.
Noesi AVERAGED 93.1 MPH this season as a seldom used pitcher jerked from starting to bullpen and topped out at 95-96. Now that he’s throwing on a regular schedule and in a warm, tropical environment, it’s not out of the ordinary to see him throwing 1-2 MPH harder, because in actuality that is all that was reported.
The report says he’s sitting 93-95 and hit 96-97. Well he sat 92-94 during the season and hit 95-96.
Whether he can maintain that added 1-2 MPH during the season is the question.
He averaged 93 as a guy who pitched out of the pen almost exclusively. He wasn’t “jerked from starter to the pen at all”. In fact he only pitched a grand total of 4.2 innings as a starter all year, versus 51.2 IP as a reliever.
As a starter in the minor leagues he was averaging 90-92 by all reports, that went up to averaging 93 out of the pen. So as a starter this would be an increase in around 5+ MPH. Were talking someone who never hit 98 emptying everything he had out of the bullpen, who’s now touching that as a starter. That is a huge uptick.