More WAR projections
The other day, I ran through some pitcher projections. Yesterday, I stumbled across this simple WAR calculator from Wahoo’s on First. Using that, let’s project the WARs (not doing any trades, so we can’t add ‘em up, you guys) and get nuts. For the appropriate projected numbers, I’ll use the 2012 ZiPS Projections. I’ll do the starting nine and go in position order. Remember, lower numbers for defense/base running are better in this system.
(2 Defense, 3 Base Running, .276 BABIP): 3.5 WAR
(3 D, 4 BR, .287 BABIP): 3.4 WAR
(3 D, 4 BR, .309 BABIP): 4.3 WAR
(3 D, 3 BR, .291 BABIP): 3.2 WAR (Only projected by ZiPS for 108 games and 405 AB)
(5 D, 2 BR, .306 BABIP): 1.8 WAR (yikes)
(1 D, 1 BR, .286 BABIP): 2.3 WAR
(4 D, 2 BR, .244 BABIP): 4.1 WAR
(3 D, 4 BR, .295 BABIP): 2.9 WAR
Jesus Montero (0 D as DH, 4 BR, .297 BABIP): 1.3 WAR
Tagged with: Alex Rodriguez • Brett Gardner • Curtis Granderson • Derek Jeter • Mark Teixeira • Nick Swisher • Robinson Cano • Russell Martin • WAR Projections
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Some of these look low. For example, Gardner will be worth 2 wins just on defense. Tex, Swisher, Cano, Montero all look low.
Montero’s is low because his offense is good, not great and he gets knocked by the position adjustment. But, overall, I agree that the WARs are a little bearish.
So Russell Martin will be more valuable than Mark Teixeira next year?
Hmmmm.
It’s not completely unrealistic. Mark Teixeira posted a 3.2 WAR in 2010, while Martin posted a 3.1 WAR this year. If Martin builds off his first healthy season since 2009, and Teixeira has another 2010 like slump it COULD happen. It’s just not likely.
Oh, I agree. I’m just wondering what that says about Teixeira going forward (yeah, I know the 2009 flag will fly forever).
It says people don’t believe in his bounce back, but I take it with a grain of salt. Last year everyone had him projected as a bounce back guy along with Arod. At the end of the day projections are just educated guesses.
Teixeira posted a 4+ WAR this season, I could see him repeating this year before repeating 2009 again. He suffered from a couple of injuries in 2009 that limited his power, as well as that awful even for him start to the season.