An offer they could refuse
It’s a cliche to say that actions speak louder than words, but cliches have to come from somewhere. And, like it or not, they do have at least a kernel of truth to them. Yesterday, we saw one of those kernels get popped.
We’ve heard Brian Cashman say that is the best starter on the market, but yesterday, when news broke that the Yankees turned down an offer to meet with Wilson, we learned Cash’s true feelings for the left handed pitcher. While I’d warmed up to Wilson a bit more over the course of this season, I’d still prefer the Yankees look elsewhere for starting pitch during this Hot Stove Season. Wilson’s not bad, but if we’re talking free agents, give me someone who’ll command a shorter commitment. If we’re getting greedy (and why not?) give me Yu Darvish or trade for .
It would be naive to assume this means the end of the connections between the Pinstripers and Wilson, but the vital signgs of this “relationship” are weak at best and circling the drain at worst.
This Hot Stove season has, to this point, been defined by a lack of action. We’re no where near the point of passivity, but we’re still waiting for the coals to be warmed; hopefully, that happens any day now.
Yesterday’s “refusal” says more than any supposed spoken or sourced connection linking Wilson and the Yankees had all offseason. Theses sorts of connections are ones we hear all the time during the winter, yet little usually comes of them. Sure, part of this is out of logistics; the Yankees obviously can’t sign all the free agents. But the fact taht so little actually happens with the Yankees and these players is much more telling. Though it’s hard, especially with the seemingly glacial pace of this HOt Stove, we’ve got to exercise restraint every time the Yankees are connected with a player. Actions speak louder than words, and so does inaction.
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No doubt Wilson is a good pitcher. I just don’t like the idea of giving a 31 yo pitcher a 6 year contract. The team is aging and Cashman should avoid long term contracts that would only make that worse. I agree that Darvish or Danks would be a better fit for the team.
I still hope the Yankees are offering some sort of 5 year deal. Wilson is clearly the best pitcher on the market, and he is the only pitcher that has been talked about that is a number 2 in the rotation. Which is really what we need.
It’s one thing to want to go after the younger Danks over Wilson, but I’ve seen people suggesting going 3 years with Buehlre over 5 with Wilson. Which honestly makes no sense considering both would end their respective deals after their age 33 season. It also isn’t like Mark will be tons cheaper since he cost 15 million last year and likely isn’t looking for a big pay cut. Buehlre may have the longer track record, but Wilson is the better pitcher between the two.
I don’t think I’d want Wilson on anything longer than a 4 year deal at about $16-17 Mil/season. Agree, Buerhle won’t be much cheaper, so I’d prefer Wilson on the type of deal I described over him. However, while Wilson has a track record (a small one as a starter), I’d take the chance on Darvish if he’s posted. Wilson could easily turn into another A.J. Burnett with his high walk rate. If I were Cashman, my preference would be to look elsewhere if not getting the deal I want.
The AJ Burnett – CJ Wilson comparison just doesn’t hold much water with me. The only real thing they have in common is being some what wild, but even in that AJ Burnett never had a 200 innings season with as low a walk rate as Wilson had this year at 2.98.
The main problem with Burnett has not been his walks, it’s been the fact that he is a 2 pitch pitcher who has steadily lost velocity on his fastball. When he doesn’t have one pitch the other one isn’t enough to carry him, and more and more his main pitch has decreased in value. Last year Burnett threw his 4-seam fastball 39.9% of the time and his curve 33.3% of the time.
Wilson on the other hand Wilson has 4 to 5 pitches he can throw and navigate a lineup with. He hasn’t solely relied on velocity and one breaking pitch to make his money. according to fangraphs, last year Wilson threw his 4-seam fastball 23.7% of the time, his 2-seam fastball 23.6% of the time, his slider 16.4% of the time, his cutter 16.0% of the time, his curve 13.4% of the time and his change 6.8% of the time. His change was down from 12.3% of the time the previous year. So he can use up to 6 different variants of movement 10+% of the time. That is nothing like AJ Burnett, so I think this whole fall back of him being AJ needs to stop.
People like to pick out an easy comparison in their brain and use that against a guy, but we need to look into individual and stop falling back on the “he reminds me of him so we shouldn’t sign him”. That whole point of logic doesn’t make sense.
Couldn’t agree more. In addition to Wilson, I’ve heard people call Matt Garza another A.J. Burnett – which is hardly true.
I’ve found pretty much everyone A Yankee fan doesn’t like becomes “AJ Burnett like” or “the next AJ”. It’s pretty ridiculous.
The same reason you shouldn’t say don’t sign Darvish because of Irabu, Dice K, Igawa, is the same reason shouldn’t say don’t sign Wilson because of AJ or Lackey.
Darvish and Danks are the guys the Yankees should target IMO .
I mean C.J Wilson’s delivery is just too violent to warrant a long term commitment ( I know he already had TMJS , but his shoulder / rotator cuff are what I worry about ). I mean he’s got the most inverted W I have ever seen .
I know people are on the fence on Darvish because of the pass failures of other NYY Japanese Pitchers . I was too , but the type of talent he has is just too tempting to pass on . I have been following the NPB for years and haven’t seen a more complete pitcher . His slider is just has unreal movement and at times is even comparable to former NPB great Tomohito Itoh’s slider (the best slider I have ever laid eyes on).
Here is a nice K comp of Darvish I found on youtube :
Well so far Darvish hasn’t been posted and may not be. Even if he is the Yankees may not end up with the winning bid so even if they were to target Darvish he may well end up staying in Japan or going to another MLB organization. So, I don’t see how the Yankees can make any plans regarding Darvish, at least not without a backup plan.
Also, even if Darvish is posted and the Yankees do get him will he be able to step right into the rotation or will he need some AAA time? I don’t think it’s quite fair to tar him with the Dice-K/Igawa/Irabu brush but it’s not out of the question that he will need an adjustment period and might not be able to contribute at the MLB level right away.
Bottom line – I would explore the trade market and put together a plan that does not involve Darvish because he’s far from a sure thing to even be available let alone be a viable answer to the Yankees very real need for another starting pitcher.
Even if Darvish needs time in AAA (not at all out of the question), I think the Yankees are deep enough with 5 starters (CC, Nova, Freddy, Hughes & A.J.) along with Noesi and the current AAA arms to hold on without making a trade. Should Darvish have an adjustment period longer than half a season and the current arms are under performing, the Yankees can look at a mid-season trade. Same goes if Darvish is posted late, the Yankees don’t win and there are no good FAs left available.
Well, here we differ. There are 3 real question marks among the 5 names you listed. Garcia is unlikely to do as well as he did last year (see http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2011/11/30/deconstructing-freddy/ for an analysis that I agree with), Hughes may or may not bounce back and be able to hold down a starting role (I think he will but he’s not a lock by any means) and AJ is, well, AJ.
So I would say there needs to be at least one and maybe two starters added to the mix. If Darvish is available and the Yankees get him – fine. But they can’t count on him.
At this point I don’t believe he is going to be posted at all. It doesn’t behoove him to post until after this whole divorce situation is settled, and she clearly has no intention of settling it this year if he’s going to post.
Agreed Chris. My understanding is Yu’s dad said in a Japanese interview a week or so ago that he put it at “50-50 at most” his son would file for posting this season. He also said he told Brian Cashman his son is leaning toward waiting a year so he can pick and choose the team he goes to, and that his biggest fear in posting now is that he would be forced to choose between a rebuilding high-bid team that won’t win for awhile and going back to his team, the former being a situation he rues and the latter apparently a highly unpleasant one to be in for a returnee with his Japanese teammates and fan base.
For him to be able to choose where he wants to go he would have to wait until 2014. He’s not a Japanese free agent until then.
Though it looks like I may end up being wrong. Reports today are it’s looking more likely he will post after the winter meetings. So I guess that means for now no one really knows for sure.
The Yankees are in a position that would negate the signing of a guy like CJ Wilson. It isn’t outside the realm of possibility that within 2-3 years, 4 out of 5 of the starting rotation is made up of all young, homegrown, cost-controlled, high upside starters. Something us Yankee fans haven’t seen in who knows how long? I wouldn’t mind a pursuit of a guy like Darvish because he’s still so young, and the posting fee wouldn’t hit the luxury tax. Not to mention his upside being through the roof and if he only realizes 75% of his potential, it would be a success. And with reports coming out of the DR that Noesi’s fastball touching 97-98 as a starter recently, I am very excited for the future of our rotation. I praise Cash’s ability to stand pat, and I encourage him to continue on this path.
I think it’s dangerous to get caught up in this who “4 out of 5 of our starters will be home grown prospects” stuff. The likelihood is that at least one of Banuelos and Betances isn’t going to make it in the rotation, with a chance neither does. Nova seems like a sure bet to stay in the rotation long term, but we all thought Wang would be a perfect number 2 or 3 when we finally signed a big number 1 and look what happened to him. Noesi’s velocity may be reported as up now, but he’s never even had a real successful start in the major leagues yet. Not to mention even in the pen he had a WHIP of 1.5 and was prone to big innings.
Sure some of these guys may make it, some may make it big, but you shouldn’t put all your eggs in the “home grown” basket just because it would be something you want to see happen. The odds say they won’t all stick in the rotation, and the one that do have no guarantee of being any better than 3-5 starters.
There was a time when everyone was sure that the future of the Yankees rotation was going to be Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy in that order. Now only Kennedy is holding onto a for sure rotation spot, and that’s in Arizona.
It’s nice to have prospects who may make it in our rotation, and we should allow them to do so if they develop into that. But we shouldn’t preclude ourselves from signing guys who fit needs because someone may or may not develop down the line.
I don’t have any of my eggs in any basket…hence why I said its not outside the realm of possibility. It would obviously be best case scenario, but it isn’t impossible. And what’s the point of following prospects if not to hope for the best?
I would be happy if within 2-3 years we have at
least 2 of our heralded prospects in our big league rotation. Obviously some may get traded, others won’t pan out at all. But after a postseason of disappointment, I’d say a little patience and optimism are in order.
Odds are certainly against it. Besides the fact that prospect simply don’t pan out in those numbers, the Yankees usually don’t go through a period of drought long enough to go through growing pains with that many rookies.
Saying because we have these prospects it negates signing a guy like Wilson is putting eggs in a basket.
I think at best we could hope to have 2 of these current prospect (Banuelos, Noesi, Betances, Phelps, Warren) in the rotation. The point is if you’re a GM you can’t afford to work off of optimism. You can certainly hope that certain prospects pan out, and you can hold certain prospects above others (Montero and Banuelos) in trade talks. But you can’t not make certain moves because you hope one day certain prospects turn into something.
You have to make moves based on how you feel about the player available to you. If you feel good about Wilson on a deal you can sign him to you do it, if you feel his price outweighs the talent you pass. You don’t pass him up because you have some prospects in triple and double A.
Patience is one thing, as I said working on optimism is another. GMs who work off of optimism get fired. The Yankees work with resources most teams don’t have, they can’t be afraid to use them when they find a deal that works for the team.