A Late Yu Darvish Posting is Good for the Yankees
Ken Rosenthal is now reporting that Yu Darvish will likely not be posted until mid-to-late January, if he is posted at all. Darvish seems uncertain about whether or not he wants to make 2012 his MLB debut, and at the same time seems worried that his posting fee will be lower than Daisuke Matsuzaka’s record-setting $51 million. All of this is good news for the New York Yankees.
All of this is good news for the Yankees. Yu Darvish has the potential to be a very good MLB pitcher. We’ve covered that on this blog extensively. We also know that the Yankees have unique financial incentives, made more important by the new CBA, to spend more dollars in posting fees than they would otherwise want to spend in salary. This gives them an asymmetric advantage among the field interested in Darvish.
Now, they have another advantage. If Darvish opts to wait until January to make a decision, the majority of MLB teams will have cemented down their 2012 budgets and will be unable to find the room to bid for him. Teams will likely not pass up the opportunity to spend money on big trade acquisitions and free agents earlier in the off season, since Darvish may or may not be posted. Fewer teams means that the Yankees will both have less competition, and their bid will be subject to less random variance – the chance that some team puts in a surprise high number and blows the Yankees away, like the Red Sox did with Matsuzaka.
The new CBA, the weak free agent class, the Yankee pitching needs, and now Darvish’s late potential posting date are basically the perfect storm for the Yankees in the Yu Darvish market. If I were a little more a conspiracy theorist, I would say that Darvish and his agent engineered the late post in order to raise his chances of ending up on the New York Yankees. It’s that kind of good news.
I think the Yankees should not only bid on Darvish, but seriously considering adding 15% to any number they were thinking of bidding before. With the potential of a $189 million payroll and limited amateur signing spending, the Yankees may see their opportunities to add elite talent via brute fiscal force be fewer and fewer over the years.
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With the way this offseason is unfolding,poor free agent choices and exhorbitant demands for less than ace starters, I can’t possibly see how the yankeesdont make a huge bid for yu. Now adding to that the new cba and their desire to get the payroll under the threshold I see it as nearly impossible. Getting him allows them to hold onto the kids
Why would Darvish be worried about his posting fee? Does he get a percentage of it, or is it an ego thing?
A higher posting fee could theoretically mean a lower contract offer for Darvish (as could a team other than the Yankees winning the rights to negotiate with him). In that sense it is possible that there would be some interest from Darvish’s end in keeping he bids lower and maximizing the chance that the Yankees would win.
In the link, Rosenthal explicitly states that Darvish is worried that his posting fee will be lower than Matsuzaka’s. It’s all ego.
somebody should tell him (if these rumors are true) that its not the size of the posting fee its the amount of cash in the Contract. He can definitely get 55+ million for a 5-6 year contract. It would be more than Daisukes.
honestly though, I find it strange that a person who is said to be “shy/modest” about speaking English (the language he was raised speaking, and is fluent in mind you) would be upset that the posting fee would be lower than Daisuke.
Also do they have to tell him the posting fee? they could just lie (I’m joking….partially)
It’s none of the above… Yu Darvish wants to change the landscape of Japanese players waiting 10 yrs before they become free agents. He is making a stand for the future of Japanese amateurs.
Teams, not players, get 100% of the posting fee; becasue teams have to pay a high posting fee, Japanese players are making substantially less than they are worth in salary in the MLB.
Google Yu Darvish and Posting Fee, and you will find some great articles about how Darvish is trying to change the timetable for FA to the Major Leagues.
All the best,
Aaron
What kind of dog is that you have in your avatar Aaron? It looks like a pit, but I can’t zoom in to see for sure.
Ego. It’s always ego with athletes.
Considering the lack of minor league influx the Yankees may be receiving in the upcoming decade it is in their best interest to go hard after Darvish. While the cost will be big, Darvish has proven himself as the best Japanese pitcher of the last 15 years. While he may not be an ace, he could easily step in behind CC and give the Yankees stability and someone else to rely on to give them 200 innings.
Hey if I was Darvish and I was getting divorced, I would wait too!
This is still why I’m leaning towards him not being posted period. He’s making 6 million in Japan if he stays, which isn’t chump change. So if it comes down to taking 6 million for 2012 and giving part of that to his ex-wife, then going to the MLB next season. Versus being posted this year and giving his ex-wife a part of a 5-6 year 50+ million dollar contract, I’m staying in Japan. It just makes very little financial sense to let her get her hands on any of his MLB contract money.
I’m still not sure how she has any right to a piece of a contract he hasn’t signed yet and wouldn’t have signed before the start of the divorce. But that’s neither here nor there really.
It’s not unusual in certain divorce cases. In the U.S., Bob Dylan’s ex-wife receives 1/2 of all future recording royalties in perpetuity. It’s the major reason Dylan has toured non-stop for 30 years (she doesn’t share in his live performance income).
Darvish should be more concerned about performing better than Matsuzaka. If he’s all ready big timing about $, how would he really do faced with a NY or Boston press corps after blowing a game. Unless he plans on going 35 & 0 every season. . ..
Yu Darvish(Nippon Ham) Posting Player
Buster Olney is tweeting that the Yankees are unsure if they will bid at all on Darvish, and that he is getting the feeling that they have the same level of interest in Darvish as they did with CJ Wilson “lukewarm”.
Now obviously they are going to bid, that’s just posturing. But I also feel that the Yankees don’t have the level of interest most fans believe they do. They seem to have a very take him or leave him feel for Darvish, and despite what I’ve read on countless Yankee blogs I don’t think they are going to make this strong push.
I think they will bid, but it will be a low ball bid and if no one else ponies out big bucks they’ll take him. But I don’t see them bidding 40+ million.