More trade talk
Because, why not?
Earlier this week, had his name thrown into the trade ring by Joel Sherman, and we learned that the Cubs are willing to listen on anyone. Of all the Cubs starters, the one we can dream about the most is . Instead of running them through the trade value calculator like I did with yesterday, I want to explore whether or not the Yankees should even be interested in trading for either one.
The most attractive thing about Santana is his durability. He’s pitched at least 200 innings in three of his last four seasons and four of his last six. Aside from that, he’s got decent control (2.87 career BB/0) and strikeout numbers (7.17 K/0). A durable pitcher who doesn’t walk a lot of guys and shows the ability to miss bats? Sounds like a fit for the Yankees to me. Well, not so much. Santana is a fly ball pitcher who plays in a big park. His GB% was a career high 43.5% this year, but that’s the first time he’s cracked the 40% mark. It’s also worth noting that despite pitching in a big stadium, he’s got a career HR/9 of 1.14. We should also note that his career HR/FB% outside of Anaheim is 10.5% (9.2% at home).
Matt Garza is attractive because we’ve seen him succeed in the American League East and he’s also established himself as a durable pitcher, tossing at least 184 innings since 2008. His strikeout rates have varied a bit, though his control has been pretty good. What helped Garza be so successful in 2011 was his HR/9…or lack there of. In 2009 and 2010, his HR/9 marks were 1.11 and 1.29. This season, he cut it to 0.63, despite pitching in Wrigley field (10.3% HR/FB home, 4.0% road). That’s encouraging for sure. Garza hasn’t been much of a groundball guy either (41.0% career), but he did bump that mark up to 46.3% last year. If he could keep this GB rate up while keeping the home run rate down, he’d be on his way to big time status.
Of course, we’ve also got to consider their salary costs. Santana is due to make $11.2M in 2012 and has a $13M club option ($1M buyout) for 2013. Garza, a super-two, is projected to make $8.7M in 2012 in his second to last season of arbitration.
After looking at the numbers semi-closely, I don’t think I’d want the Yankees to trade for either guy. Santana’s skillset doesn’t seem to fit Yankee Stadium and I’m still not entirely sold on Garza. I’d like to see him repeat 2011. Going into this post, I didn’t think I’d say what I just did, but lo and behold…
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I’d want Garza because of the AL East experience and I like his pure stuff, but I wouldn’t want to overpay for the guy in terms of prospects. I’d probably part with Betances, but I’d stop short of Banuelos or Montero. I’d be willing to add Romine and a Noesi type, but I wouldn’t want to go much further and I don’t think the Cubs would be biting at that cost.
I agree with you on having no interest in Santana because of his flyball rates. Never been a huge fan of Santana as he’s always been a guy who’s struck me as never having been as good as his stuff, and besides that I think the Angels would want way more than he’s worth.
I wonder what the Brewers would be willing to trade Yovani Gallardo for? I’m not sure how great a fit he’d be in the East, and even with the 45+% GB% he gives up his share of HRs, but he cut the walks this year and I feel he’s on the verge of really becoming an ace. The Brewers are probably going to want to re-sign Greinke, and they are going to need a replacement for Fielder at first so Montero seems to be a fit. Plus with no commitment toGallardo and a cheap Montero at first they could not only re-sign Greinke, but also keep Marcum so it would probably be a win for both teams. I’m not sure how far I’d go, but I’d include Montero for sure as a starting point.
Gallardo has good numbers and Miller Park, while not Yankee Stadium, is not a pitcher’s paradise. Plus, he’s young (25) and cheap ($6 million/yr through 2014 with a club option for 2015) but he has a full no trade (meaning he’ll want more $$$ and/or years to waive it).
If I’m Cashman I’m kicking the tires on this one but with Prince Fielder departing I doubt the Brew Crew needs relief from a cost-effective contract like Gallardo’s. Besides, why would they trade a cost-controlled, front-line starter like that for Montero and hope that he can be adequate at a position he has never played professionally for more than a handful of innings (if that)?
It wouldn’t be relief of Gallardo’s contract so much as replacing Fielder and giving themselves the option to extend both Greinke and Marcum. If they keep Yovani they have to know he’s going to need a new contract in a few years, that probably means they can only extend Greinke or Marcm and lose the other to free agency or trade anyway.
As far as Montero playing first, I don’t see that as a huge issue. He may not be a gold glover over there but neither was Fielder. One things for sure he’ll be a better first baseman than he ever will be a catcher, and they can split his time at both positions to maximize his value and their lineups potential. He’s athletic enough to at least play both positions, if not great at least serviceably, the rest will sort itself out in time.
I’m not saying they would trade Gallardo, I’ve heard nothing at all involving him in rumors, just something I’d make a call about. I’m sure the Brewers would at least listen, since the idea of Braun and Montero in the middle of the order for the next 6 years is a pretty good scenario to entertain.
I think Santana has better stuff when he’s on, but Garza is definitely more consistent.
Santana’s salary is not too terrible but large enough that the Angels would have to take back salary in a deal. Swisher – to replace Abreu – comes to mind.
Garza is tough and has AL East experience. Theo Epstein needs prospects to develop in Chicago so I think he can be had. I can also see Phil Hughes going the other way in a deal.
Edge to Santana for being left-handed and having more playoff experience. Plus I trust Mike Scioscia’s judgement of pitchers immensely and he’s been behind Santana since day 1.
Santana’s right handed.
There is not way that the Angels give up valuable starting pitching to add talent to the OF, an already crowded environment.
Why would we give up Swisher in the deal? I imagine we would be trading prospects for someone like Ervin, not someone we need to give us value this year. Plus why would the Angels want Swisher when they have Hunter in RF, Bourjos in CF/LF, Trout for CF/LF, Morales for 1B/DH, Trumbo for 1B/DH/3B, and Abreu at DH? Where would Swish play?
Also how is Santana’s stuff better? Santana has a career K/9 of 7.13 and has never posted an 8.00 K/9 or better, and his fastball averaged 92.7 MPH last year while not being above that since 2008. Garza on the other hand has a career K/9 of 7.78 and has posted an 8.00 K/9 or higher twice in his career (once in the AL East), and his fastball averaged 93.8 MPH last year while never having been below 93 in any season. All signs point to Garza having better pure stuff.
I don’t know why I thought Santana was left handed. Wishful thinking I guess.
Santana has had times when he’s electric. It may not show up in the stats, but you can see it on the field. Garza definitely throws harder, but he’s not as crafty.
Angels won’t bring back Abreu. They have a $1 million buyout. Swisher would be an excellent fit as a replacement.
The Angels have no choice but to bring Bobby back. His option was a vesting option which vested if he reached 433 PA in 2011, and he reached 585 PA. He’s coming back whether they want him back or not, unless he’s willing to leave.
Both Garza and Santana are Electric at times, it’s why they both have no hitters. But Garza has better pure stuff, and he’s proven himself in the AL East. Santana has been able to feast on the poor hitting Mariners and A’s, in two of the best pitching parks in baseball. Santana hasn’t been very good against the AL East opponents in his career.