We all know he got under that one.
For stat watchers, the numbers are damning. In 2008 posted a career high wOBA of .410, a number that confirmed his status as one of the game’s elite hitters. He followed that up with a .402 number in 2009, which was equally excellent, but also down slightly. Normally that kind of variation means nothing more than noise but in 2010 Tex’s performance dropped substantially. His wOBA was .367. The trend continued in 2011, when he posted a .361 wOBA.
There is no sugar coating the trend. Tex’s offensive numbers have declined in three straight years. The downward trajectory cuts across offensive metrics. A similar pattern emerges if you look at Tex’s wRC+ or his OPS+. There is therefore no denying that Tex has seen his performance decline, but is the trend irreversible? Mark has acknowledged his problems and stated that he intends to work in the offseason with Kevin Long. Can this work?
The short answer is yes. In 2012 Tex will be entering just his age 32 season. While it is natural for his skills to begin eroding around this time, the nature of this particular decline is exaggerated. Something else is at play because a 31 year old player shouldn’t go from being a .400 wOBA hitter to a .365 wOBA hitter simply due to age. Given that Tex isn’t hurt (as far as we know) and is still young, basic logic dictates that he is getting himself out.
Some key metrics bear this out. Most importantly, Tex has lost none of his power. His ISO in 2011 was .246, right in line with his career average of .250 and up from his 2010 mark of .225. If Tex’s skills were declining due to age it would show up in reduced power numbers. serves as an example of this. His ISO has declined every year since 2007 as he has gotten older. Tex still mashes the ball, suggesting that his struggles are not due to bat speed or strength.
Further evidence that Tex can turn things around can be found in his success against the fastball. He was worth 19.7 runs against the fastball in 2011, roughly even with the 20.1 runs he was worth against the fastball in 2010. While those numbers are down substantially from the 30+ runs he was worth against the pitch from 2007 to 2009, they don’t suggest irreversible decline. In fact, he posted similar numbers in 2005 and 2006, when he was in his mid twenties. That he still hits for power and can still catch up to the fast pitch both suggest that Tex is young enough to make corrections.
Tex’s problem is clear as day in his numbers. From 2005 to 2009 he swung at between 19.6% and 21.9% of the pitches he saw outside of the strike zone. In 2010 that number jumped up to 26.5% and it jumped again in 2011 to 27.9%. He’s been making contact on these pitches more as well. Swinging and connecting on more bad pitches is a recipe for poor performance, but it is a reversible one. Kevin Long is certainly aware of Tex’s bad habits. Provided there isn’t anything more sinister lurking beneath the numbers, the Yankees can correct this behavior and get the old Tex back.
2012 is a pivotal season for Mark Teixeira. Entering the 2011 season most analysts projected that Tex would bounce back from his poor 2010 showing. He didn’t. He hit more home runs, but his overall decline continued. The Yankees made Tex one of the richest players in baseball history to be better than he has been the past two seasons. If he can’t turn around his 2012 season inevitably analysts will begin speaking of him as a bust, relative to what the Yankees paid. Having been burned in 2011, I’m not comfortable boldly predicting a bounce back season for Tex in 2012, the way I did last season. However, I will say that Tex still has the potential to bounce back, but he will need to make adjustments to do so.
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only mark can fix mark..he wants the 500 club. that will get him the hall.. he will not hit the ball the other way batting left..he has giambi mentality.. if he goes with the pitch to left field we will see a vast improvement.. he will hit .290 again..never happen..sorry for us and him
Long worked with Tex last winter. His take in SI last January: Tex’s swing mechanics need to change; Tex knows what part needs changing, but Tex has to want to change it. Something to do with his collapsing backside … here’s the link:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/web/COM1181078/index.htm
Here’s hoping he takes Long’s advice this winter. Even a marginal reversal of his numbers would be huge for our batting order.
HE NEEDS TP LISTEN IS CORRECT..
Yeah, just at the end of the season, he was trying to hit to up the middle and to the left side. The balance required will cause a rebound. He just has to go with it. The pitcher has his lefty number unless he does, and the stacked defense doesn’t help.
Mike, I wonder if the analysis would be clearer if you would confine them to the lefty split. This was certainly the year for switchy problems, Tex, Swish and Jorge had such divergent experiences left to right. I wonder about Jorge, wasn’t righty his natural swing, just as for Tex and Swish?
yes