Fun with WAR projections: Pitcher edition

By On November 29, 2011 · 2 Comments · In Statistical Notes

It’s projection season around the baseball blogosphere. So, why not look at some of the projections out there and see what that gives us in terms of WAR. For this exercise, I’ll be using the Bill James projections, which some guy we know compiled here. To attempt to get the WARs, I’ll use this spreadhseet

: CC’s projected for 235 innings of 3.30 FIP ball. That, per the spreadsheet, would give us a WAR of 6.5. Shocking.

: James pegs Nova for a 4.11 FIP in 183 innings, leading to a projected WAR of 3.1. I’d be beyond thrilled with that.

: Like Larry said in his article, the innings total is a little screwy, but I punched it in anyway: 102 innings at a 3.82 FIP projects out to 2.1 WAR. I won’t hold my breath on that FIP from Hughes, but I’d obviously take it.

: 173 innings, 4.36 FIP, 2.4 WAR. Can I sign up for this right now?

: 144 innings, 4.43 FIP, 1.9 WAR. Yup, that all makes sense.

Assuming these five are the main starters for the Yankees this year, we end up with 837 innings of 3.95 FIP ball. Last season, the five main Yankee starters (by innings) turned in 889.5 innings and averaged a 3.94 FIP.

Remember, these are just projections. They’re nothing concrete, but they do give us a window into what is (usually) a vaguely reasonable expectation for a player.

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2 Responses to Fun with WAR projections: Pitcher edition

  1. T.O. Chris says:
    November 29, 2011 at 10:56 am

    At 2.4 WAR Burnett would almost have the combination of his last 2 seasons WARs (2.9). Not sure I believe in it though, but I would certainly take it.

    Reply
  2. Phil C says:
    November 29, 2011 at 11:36 am

    Hey Matt. Do you have access to the WAR projections for the Red Sox & the Rays?

    I agree that the projects for AJ seem unrealistically optimistic. And how the hell can anyone have anything but a SWAG for Hughes!

    Reply

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