Expectations for Ivan Nova

By On November 7, 2011 · 25 Comments · In Player Analysis

No one expected Ivan Nova to contribute as much as he did in 2011: 165 1/3 innings, 3.70 ERA, and two starts in the division series. Ivan Nova was supposed to be a average-at-best young rotation candidate who would provide the Yankees some depth while the real impact players (Manuel Banuelos, Dellin Betances) developed in the minors. He ended up being quite valuable, and will likely place high rookie of the year voting.

Given the state of the Yankee pitching depth and his 2011 success, its obvious that the Yankees are going to hand him a rotation spot before spring training and count on some real production out of Nova. That’s fine. But when assembling a team that the Yankees think can make it to the playoffs, they need to figure out what they can expect of Nova – both in 2012 and beyond.

I think that there is some serious disappointment danger with Nova. There’s nothing in his minor league track record to suggest that  Nova is as good as he pitched late in last season. He’s got a serious SO/BB problem that he can only make up by allowing exceptionally weak contact. That doesn’t mean that its impossible that Nova succeeds as a major league pitcher, just that the odds are against him. We normally take debut performances for young rookies and expect them to improve over time. We really shouldn’t Nova to improve on his 3.70 ERA.

Now, the news isn’t all bad. Nova has a lot of things going for him. First and foremost, he’s the rare rookie pitcher who can throw 200 innings in his second season without any real workload concerns. Nova threw 189 2.3 innings between the majors, minors and postseason in 2011, a small bump up from the 187 he pitched in 2010. Unlike Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain (and for that matter, 2012 Banuelos and Betances), the Yankees can let Ivan Nova loose without any serious restrictions. There’s serious value in that, even if he doesn’t pitch to such a low ERA.

What should we expect out of Nova? We’re still waiting on PECOTA et al. to come out, so we don’t have a guide there yet. I’d be very satisfied if he pitched something like 34 starts, 200 innings, and a 4.00 ERA. That said, I think he’s more likely to have an ERA closer to 4.50 than 3.50. He’s got to improve on his game in some non-trivial way in order to bring it to the next level. That may mean striking out more batters (this is anecdotal but, his curveball seemed downright filthy at times in late September and Game 1) but more likely it means keeping free passes under control.

I think that Nova is a valuable starting pitcher for the Yankees to hold over the next five years. I think that he’ll be a reliable innings eater, fulfilling the kind of role that Joe Blanton fulfilled for so long. But I don’t think he’s a substitute for a better pitcher – be it Manuel Banuelos or C.J. Wilson or Matt Cain or Yu Darvish. The Yankees should count their blessing that they have a #4-type starter under cheap team control for some time now, but still plan for ambitious future upgrades to the rotation to back up C.C. Sabathia. In other words, we shouldn’t want to be in a situation where Ivan Nova throws 2 games in a playoff series ever again.

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25 Responses to Expectations for Ivan Nova

  1. UYF1950 says:
    November 7, 2011 at 1:04 pm

    In my opinion I expect Nova to settle in to a nice #3 starter in 2012. Unfortunately that still leaves the Yankees in need of a solid #2 in my opinion. I just don’t get a warm an d fuzzy feeling that a rotation of: CC, Nova, AJ, Hughes and somebody else be it Garcia, Colon or Noesi in 2012 will be able to duplicate the success of the 2011 starting rotation. I think the Yankees were fortunate and caught lightening in a bottle with Colon and Garcia and to a certain degree with Nova in 2011. I just don’t think it can be duplicated again in 2012. The Yankees need to sign another starting pitcher whether it’s Wilson, Darvish, Buehrle or trade for one again like Gio, Cain or someone else. That’s just my opinion.

    Reply
  2. Larry Koestler says:
    November 7, 2011 at 1:04 pm

    EJ,

    FYI, 2012 ZiPS has Nova throwing 178.1 innings of 4.44 ERA ball, with a 5.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and 1.0 HR/9. CAIRO 2012 v0.1 has Nova throwing 168 innings of 4.48 ERA ball with a 4.52 FIP, 5.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 1.0 HR/9.

    Both projections seem like pretty fair baselines to me, with Nova likely exceeding them if he can maintain a >50% GB% and perhaps get that K/9 above 6.0

    Reply
    • says:
      November 7, 2011 at 1:53 pm

      The question is how would the K/9 get over 6.0? Much was made of Nova’s 16 K’s in 14 IP in his first two starts back from the minors but, even after pitching effectively post-callup, he still only pitched to a 5.7 K/9 from July 30th to season’s end.

      His stuff just doesn’t generate enough swinging strikes despite having decent enough velocity and movement on his pitches. Would that not mean that batters can just see the ball too well coming out of his hand?

      Reply
      • Tony Rubberknuckles says:
        November 7, 2011 at 2:34 pm

        Tim Hudson has been one of the best and most reliable pitchers in the game for over a decade now and he has a low k/9 rate.

        Reply
        • says:
          November 7, 2011 at 3:59 pm

          Exception to the rule, don’t you think? Hudson is fantastically consistent with his GB% and has two plus pitches (FB/SL) so what he doesn’t have in deception he makes up for with control (low BB/9) and execution.

          Also, it’s worth noting that, despite low K/9, he has better wiff rate than Nova which means that his stuff has more deception even without resulting K’s.

          Reply
          • Tony Rubberknuckles says:
            November 7, 2011 at 5:18 pm

            Nova is also a rookie, so he has time to improve. Just look what he did when we sent him to the minors for a couple starts.

            Reply
  3. Cardiff says:
    November 7, 2011 at 2:19 pm

    If Nova continues to refine his primary pitches and change-up he’ll perform even better in 2012. Still, I can’t see him being more than a # 3 starter, at least in the short-term. I see 15-17 wins and an era ~ 3.50 in 2012.

    Reply
  4. S says:
    November 7, 2011 at 3:09 pm

    We tend to forget that Nova actually made tangible changes in the past year that really puts into doubt whether his Milb are an accurate predictor of what he will do. The addition of the slider has really changed his ceiling. He has borderline videogame-like control and command of it, and it generates a well above average percentage of whiffs. It also makes that filthy curve (another above average pitch), his heavy fastball, and change that much more effective. If you look at the differences between the time before he was sent down and after he is showing tangible improvement that hints at it not being a fluke. The rise in whiffs that he’s gotten tells me that more strikeouts will come and it is very possible for him to get at least 6 k/9 next year.

    Reply
    • says:
      November 7, 2011 at 4:02 pm

      He only threw the SL about 4% of the time in 2011 (although 9% of the time after the 7/30 return to the big leagues). We still don’t know as much about the effectiveness of the SL until he deploys it regularly over an entire season.

      Reply
      • Brad Vietrogoski says:
        November 7, 2011 at 4:35 pm

        Which is why we shouldn’t be rushing to judge Nova based on his 2012 projections or historically low K rate. Look at how the numbers progressed last year after he came back from Triple-A.

        I think we can all agree that Nova is not the ace of the future, but I do think we have to re-evaluate his ceiling and take a bit of an optimistic approach to thinking about what he’s capable of next year and beyond based on how he developed this past season.

        Reply
        • says:
          November 7, 2011 at 5:03 pm

          I don’t think I’ve necessarily rushed to judge Nova. I thought he was a bullpen arm going into 2011 with #4 ceiling and he ended up being a #4 arm with #3 ceiling. I don’t see him climbing much higher than a #3 and I don’t think anyone’s knocking him by saying he’s only a #3 if that’s what he ends up being. A homegrown, cost-controlled #3 is plenty valuable, especially for a guy that was signed for peanuts as an IFA.

          The fact remains, however, that a low K/9 rate for RHP has historically been an impediment to greater success and even if he’s still developing — something that may be true — the odds don’t favor a guy that doesn’t miss bats, and isn’t a ground ball machine (especially on a team with a suspect infield defense on the left side).

          Reply
      • S says:
        November 7, 2011 at 6:28 pm

        That actually is not true, Fangraphs had a problem early on in calling his slider a cutter, so the total for the year is 6.3% which considering he did not throw the pitch much in the first half still skews its usage on the low side. Upon his return from the minors he actually threw the pitch somewhere between the 10-13% range,

        Reply
        • says:
          November 8, 2011 at 1:05 pm

          I wasn’t looking at Fangraphs, I used Texas Leaguers’ PitchFX tool as I find it far more comprehensive.

          Reply
          • S says:
            November 8, 2011 at 3:30 pm

            Still suffers from the same problem of mis-classification

            Reply
            • says:
              November 8, 2011 at 5:00 pm

              Mis-classification is definitely a problem with PitchFX but, just for argument’s sake, how do you know that you have the right usage numbers for Nova’s SL? Are you making an estimate relying on some other information?

              Reply
  5. Bob says:
    November 7, 2011 at 3:42 pm

    If A.J. Burnett was the #2 he was SUPPOSED to be, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation. Nova is who Nova is…an overperforming #4 who’s giving you a borderline #2 value. Slotting him at #2 would clearly be a mistake. That said, it’s clear he won’t be under-performing anytime soon. He’s fearless, poised and pitches maturely. That and his added slider is the reason his ceiling has climbed. Pretend he’s a #4 and act accordingly this offseason. We’ll be better off if we do. Wilson may be a bust in the post-season, but he’s a #2 on our staff and more importantly, a LEFTY. Besides, it won’t be the post-season for another 11 freakin months!! We’ll worry about it then.

    Reply
  6. Jeff says:
    November 7, 2011 at 5:15 pm

    Nova reminds me of a guy by the mane of Eddie Lopat. Lopat was, what they called, a juck pitcher, not the Nova is one. He keeps hitters off stride an can fool them. I love Nova.

    Reply
  7. Jeff Fan says:
    November 7, 2011 at 5:19 pm

    Ivn Nova reminds me of Eddie Lopat who was known as a junk pitcher. He has hitters flaling at he soft stuff and looking foolish. I love Ivan Nova.

    Reply
  8. Doug says:
    November 7, 2011 at 7:14 pm

    I liked the story. Nova is quietly determined to be successful. He is very business like in what he does. Want my prediction? I know you do not, but here it is. Nova will win more games this year than CC because CC will not train properly.

    Reply
  9. CTDean says:
    November 7, 2011 at 7:33 pm

    You’re correct about saying that Nova came out of nowhere and that his Major League performance far exceeded anything we could realistically expect given his minor league track record. But that happens all the time with young players. We’re all familiar with highly touted prospects with can’t-miss labels who never achieve anything in the Majors. But you also get guys who get to the bigs and exceed expectations. Look at Cano, for example. Based on his minor league performance, no one thought he’d be this good. A similar thing happened with Mariano, although in his case, Gene Michael saw beyond unspectacular minor league stats and fought against him being traded. Prospects are suspects: you never know when they’re going to fail to develop their potential, but you also never know when a mediocre minor leaguer will learn something, make an adjustment, or just gain the confidence to become special. Nova had a great year, and, mist importantly, he showed poise

    Reply
  10. Steve S. says:
    November 7, 2011 at 7:39 pm

    I’m still not sure what to make of Nova, but a middle of the rotation innings eater would be a perfectly fine outcome. As we saw with Wang, guys like that can win a ton of with an offense like the Yanks. Frankly, I wish we had more of them.

    Reply
    • Brad Vietrogoski says:
      November 8, 2011 at 8:40 am

      That’s another key point to consider when evaluating Nova. Sure, he might not become the #2 starter that everybody seems so desperate for, and I agree that the Yankees need one. But the Yankees also didn’t really have a true #3 starter for most of last year either. Sometimes it was A.J., sometimes it was Bartolo, sometimes it was Freddy, etc.

      If Nova does eventually settle into that #3-#4 innings eater who lives around the high 3s-low 4s in ERA and FIP, there’s a lot of value in that even if he doesn’t up his K/9 to “acceptable” levels.

      Reply
  11. Luichy says:
    November 8, 2011 at 10:05 am

    Guys I am sure that Nova will have a better performance than 2011, now that he doesn’t have to deal with the pressure of an undesrve up and down to the minors. The odds that always follow into the second year of a rookie is against him, but the kid is a warrior, he doesn’t fear in any particular situation and his slider is going to improve up to the point that he is going to use it more than 2011 season. As a #2 in the rotation will probably put a lot of pressure on him, which I personally believe he can handle it, but a #3 will really fit perfect for him. I see him with a 18-10 record, 3.85ERA, 200+ innings and his K/BB ratio a little highe than this year. Lets really worry about our #1 & #2 spot.

    Reply

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