The Grandy Man could in 2011. Can he do it again next year?
(The following is being syndicated from An A-Blog for A-Rod)
2011 was a helluva season for Curtis Granderson. Less than 1 year after he had to miss 2 games in the middle of the season to completely rework his swing with Kevin Long, C-Grand used that new swing to put together a monster 2011 season… :
.262/.364/.552, 77 XBH, 41 HR, 136 R, 119 RBI, 85 BB, 25 SB, 146 wRC+, .394 wOBA, 7.0 WAR, ASG Starter, AL Silver Slugger Award winner for CF, AL Players’ Choice Awards winner for AL Player of the Year, and possible AL MVP
… And re-establish himself as a premiere player in the American League. Surprisingly, Granderson’s 2011 campaign might not even be his career best. In 2007 he went .302/.361/.552 with 84 XBH (including an insane 23 triples), 141 wRC+, a .395 wOBA, a 14.5 UZR/150, and a career best 7.8 WAR. But for Yankee purposes, 2011 was a big year for Curtis as it confirmed that he could be the type of player he was in 2007 and 2008 and the type of player the Yankees thought they were getting when they traded for him in December of ’09. But after one year of so-so C-Grand and one year of great C-Grand, what should we be expecting for him in 2012? Or more specifically, can his 2011 level of production be maintained going forward?
First, let’s use some broad strokes to explain Curtis’ big rebound in 2011. When Long rebuilt Granderson’s swing in 2010, his main focus was to cut all of the excess pre-swing movement out and create a more compact swing to better utilize Curtis’ quick hands. That compact swing produced a big power surge in the 2nd half of 2010 and it continued this past season as Granderson posted a .290 ISO, besting his previous career high (set in his ’07 season) by 40 points. Granderson also bounced back a bit on the batting average front thanks to a .295 BABIP, which was still not up above .300 like he was in his first 3 full MLB seasons with the Tigers, but much better than the .270s values he put up in 2009 and 2010. His batting average, and production as a whole, took a bit of a hit because of a 24.5% K rate, his highest since 2006, but Curtis used a career high 12.3% BB rate to counter that and keep his OBP and wOBA values high.
So digging deeper, what led to not only the sky-high power numbers in 2011, but also the increased K rate and still below career average BABIP? That should tell us how likely it is that C-Grand can continue this offensive trend into the future or if 2011 was a fluke year for him. For starters, let’s look at how pitchers approached Granderson in 2011. His hot start most likely got word quickly around the AL to not challenge Curtis too much, as he saw a career low in fastballs this past year (51.0%) while the percentages of offspeed stuff thrown his way increased almost across the board. This approach was with good reason too, as Granderson murdered the fastball in 2011 to the tune of 31.6 Runs Above Average, the 7th-best rating against the heater out of all qualified hitters. In addition to that, Granderson saw fewer pitches in the strike zone for the 7th straight year this year. Just 42.0% of all pitches he saw were strikes, likely a testament to just how well C-Grand swung the bat this season and how much respect pitchers showed him, but also due to his reputation as a bit of a hacker at the plate, a reputation well-earned after this year’s high K rate.
To a certain degree, Curtis rewarded pitchers for pitching him more out of the zone in 2011. His overall Swing % was slightly down from last season at 41.0%. But within that collection of swings, Granderson was swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone (25.7%) than he ever has before, exceeding his previous career high that he set in 2010, and fewer pitches in the strike zone (62.3%) than he has the past 2 seasons. Curtis also swung and missed at 8.5% of the pitches he saw this year, a slight increase from 2010 and his highest total since (interestingly enough) his monster ’07 season. So more swings at “bad” pitches to hit, fewer swings at “good” pitches to hit, and more swings and misses. That could certainly explain the higher K rate in 2011, but to explain the BABIP we have to see what he was doing with those swings.
C-Grand’s Contact % in 2011 experienced a similar trend as his Swing %, slightly down from the past few seasons at 78.1%. But like his Swing %, it is the zone breakdowns that tell the true story for Curtis. He had an 88.1% Z-Contact %, which is solid and right in line with the 2010 league average. But his O-Contact % of 60.7%, while still being below league average, continued a trend that started back in ’06 that shows Curtis making more contact with pitches outside the strike zone. And while that can speak to Curtis’ development as a hitter and his improved ability to recognize and make contact with pitches out of the strike zone, it can also speak to his decreased BABIP over that time as logic would dictate that if pitches out of the strike zone aren’t desirable pitches to hit and you’re swinging at more of them and making more contact on those swings, then a lot of that contact isn’t going to be as good and it will lead to more outs than hits.
So to that point, let’s look at the quality of contact that Curtis had in 2011 to see if those numbers follow the trend that his swing and contact rates are suggesting. His LD % of 18.2% was actually the lowest rate he had posted since 2005, something unexpected when you go back and look at all of those offensive totals. Granderson also had a slightly higher GB % in 2011 (33.8%) than in 2010, but that value was still lower than the rates he posted earlier in his career. Where Granderson did his damage was in the air, posting a 48.0% FB%, the 2nd highest of his career and tied for 4th among all qualifying Major League hitters, and a career-high 20.5% HR/FB % that ranked 9th in MLB. So it would appear that C-Grand’s LD and GB rates are consistent with his swing and contact stats, and would help explain a lower BABIP and BA, while his flyball and home run rates helped pick up the slack and power him to those final numbers that he put up in spite of the lower batting average and high number of strikeouts.
So knowing all of this, can we expect C-Grand to maintain this level of production next year and beyond? Should we expect it? I think to a certain degree we should. Curtis has already solved his biggest problem by fixing his swing and that yielded high returns for him this season. But he’s already shown us that he isn’t content with just that, stating multiple times during the season that he was bothered by how much he struck out (169 Ks in 2011). He spent time during the season with Kevin Long in the cage trying to fix that problem, and his focus this offseason will be on improving his pitch selection and refining his swing to cut down on the strikeouts.
Given what we know about his 2011 swing and contact breakdowns, that should bode well for Curtis in 2012. Better pitch selection means fewer swings at pitches out of the zone, which means fewer swings and misses, fewer strikeouts, and less contact on pitches out of the zone that could lead to balls in play being easier to convert into outs. Being more selective on pitches out of the zone should put Curtis in better hitters’ counts where he can continue to do damage against the fastball and/or help increase his BB rate if pitchers decide they don’t want to pitch to him in a dangerous count. Continuing to refine his swing should also help minimize Curtis’ tendency to swing at bad pitches and also increase the quality of contact he makes on pitches in the zone.
Logic would dictate that the more solid contact Granderson is making and the more good pitches he’s swinging at, the better his LD% will be and the more likely he is to experience better BABIP luck when he makes contact. And with that compact, quick, powerful swing, and the fact that he’s still very much in his prime, these factors should add up to Granderson continuing to produce at this level even if his FB and HR rates regress next year. I think we can agree that the HR total might not be repeatable in 2012, but that potential drop off could be supplemented by Curtis striking out less and hitting for a better average like he did in 2007. Based off of his 2011 production with the swing and contact rates he had, and if the work he plans to put in this offseason to fix the flaws in his approach and swing helps to improve some of those rates, another 2007 or 2011-type season is very likely. Curtis is still in his physical prime and he’s a very good ballplayer. Tightening up his approach at the plate could very well lead to another MVP-caliber season in 2012.
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Great work, Brad. It’s crazy to think that as good as Curtis’ 2011 was it possibly could have been even better. If he can rein in some of the swings at pitches outside the zone, I’d expect another big season out of the Grandyman.
Don’t see why he can’t. Especially if he can just cut down on his strikeouts by even 10 or 15%. Couple that if Cano bats 3rd in the line up with Granderson batting 2nd and he should see a lot more pitches in 2012 then he did in 2011. Just my opinion.
If Cano’s not in the 3-spot next year, that’s a travesty.
And that’s an excellent point about Cano being an even bigger boost to Curtis’ production next year. If pitchers decide they don’t want to deal with C-Grand and they walk him, fine. Enjoy facing Cano.
Brad, a side question. I can even see Granderson’s defense improving as he becomes more and more familiar with CF in Yankee Stadium. I say that because of the way I saw him play in Detroit during the ALDS and his familiarity with that place.
What do you think?
I think we need to be a little more fair in the assesment of his diving catches in the DS. Granderson is a guy who plays good defense because of his speed, but has always taken bad routes to balls. This is exactly what happened in the DS. If he had taken a better route to the ball off the bat he would have never had to dive for that first ball in the first place. I think a lot of times as fans we get wrapped up in flashy plays and forget that the best defensive plays are the ones that are made to look routine.
Chris, I agree with you about the play he misjudged and caught going back. The other play that stands out was the one he dove to his right on and slid about 10 feet after the catch. I might be wrong but I don’t believe he misjudged that and all. I think that was just an all out great catch.
I didn’t bring up that catch because I don’t remember either way what he looked like judging the ball off the bat. You may very well be right on that one. But I don’t know how much more time he would need to get use to Yankee Stadium. It’s not like this was his first year, he played over half a season in CF in 2010 here when his UZR numbers had him as one of the best in the league. I don’t think he was as bad as the numbers said this year, but I don’t think he is one of the top handful of center fielders in baseball either because of that fact that he does get such bad jumps. He’s a very good center fielder, who makes up for bad reads with tremendous speed. One of the reasons I don’t want to re-sign him after his options get picked up though is because that speed will go quickly, and when it does he may have a similar problem as Damon. Damon was always a guy who out ran his reads, but when the speed left so did his good defense. I think Granderson is a better all around defender than Damon ever was, but when a guy like that loses his speed it can get somewhat ugly in the field.
Well if the Yankees have intentions of moving Granderson over to left field and putting Gardner in Center (I have read there has been talk of doing that) that should help with your concerns about Granderson losing some of his speed down the road. In any case that’s not something we need concern ourselves with until after the 2013 season. BTW, I’ll take Granderson’s arm over Damon’s and his ability to throw out runners and hit the cutoff man. Again, that’s just my opinion.
Looks like you guys both already beat me to the debate. But let’s also not forget the Brett Gardner factor when discussing C-Grand’s recent poor defensive ratings.
And yes, I do think it’s perfectly reasonable to expect a better year for Curtis defensively next season.
As I said all around Granderson is better than Damon ever was. He’s more sure handed in the outfield, and his arm is more accurate and somewhat stronger.
I don’t think the Yankees should move Curtis to left field just because I think the move has a negligble effect on the defense, but could cause some real friction in the clubhouse and with the media. The last thing Curtis needs after coming off a great season is to be upset because he’s been moved to left field, or having to answer questions every day about his defense which could lead to problems.
Either way Curtis Granderson shouldn’t be on the Yankees after 2013. his entire skill set, both with the bat and glove, are the type that decline quickly and don’t make for good player in their mid to late 30′s. If I was in charge I would play Grandy in CF this year, pick up his 2013 option, and then trade him in the last year of his deal for a starter or other need if one pops up. I’d rather sell high over letting him walk away, or re-sign him to a deal you are guaranteed to regret.
I honestly don’t think Granderson will be able to make a real cut back on his strikeouts. I’m saying this as a huge Granderson, but I just think that is part of who he is. I believed he could turn around the weakness against lefties because he had shown that ability to some degree early in his career. But the strikeouts have always been something he has battled and I think something that will always be a signifigant part of his batting profile.
That said I don’t see why he can’t have another similar season next year, though I think we will see a reduction in home runs to at least some degree. Cano hitting second will ensure he sees his share of fastballs, but if I’m a pitcher I’m making him hit breaking balls in the zone. As he showed this was a weakness as the year went on. I still think he should hit 35-40 HRs hitting second though. This is actually why I think it would be a huge mistake to drop him below the 2 hole. I’ve seen some suggest batting him 6th, making him the protection for Alex, which I think would make his numbers take a pretty decent sized hit.
Anybody who supports the idea of dropping your 2nd-best offensive weapon from a premiere spot in the lineup to protect your #5 hitter should have their right to talk about lineups taken away.
On the other point, I agree that Ks have always been an issue with Curtis, but his K rate in 2011 was higher than in his prime BA years. It’s not out of this world to expect him to be able to drop down a few percentage points to levels he’s achieved before when he’s making a conscious effort to. That alone and Cano hitting behind should almost be enough to repeat this year’s production.
Brad, that’s the point I was trying to make about Granderson when I talked about him possibly reducing his strikeouts by 10 to 15%. I guess I should have been clearer in my original comment. In 2009 his last year with the Tigers he had about 50 more AB’s then last year (2011) yet he struck out 28 more times in 2011. The point I was trying to make without success if he cut the strikeouts down to his more recent levels that should help.
Thank you.
Granderson’s K% was 24.5% which is high compared to his career rate of 21.9%, but it isn’t ridiculously higher. He also managed to raise his BB% to a career high 12.3%, a similar rise from his career rate of 10.0%. I think the rise in K’s goes hand in hand with his BB% and home run production. I believe he can cut down the the K rate to be more in line with his 21-21% career rate, but in doing so he will also drop his home run total to below 40 and drop his BB rate closer to career averages as well. I don’t see him being able to drop the K%, keep the career high mark in walks, and keep his HR total above 40.
On fangraphs Bill James has projection at 11.1% BB rate, 23.7% K rate, and his HRs dropping way down to 31. I actually think he will closer to 35-38 HRs thanks to Yankee Stadium, but the other two numbers don’t look too far off.
I dont see why he cant keep this up. Its not like he was hitting wall scrapers, and like everyone has previously stated with Cano behind him he should have some chances.