What about Roy Oswalt?

By On October 18, 2011 · 31 Comments · In Hot Stove

When we’re discussing Yankee free agent starting pitcher targets, we’re prone to talking about three names: , Yu Darvish, and . One that hasn’t come up much is .

There are two reasons for this: Roy Oswalt is old and Roy Oswalt isn’t exactly healthy. Back issues limited him to just 139 innings this year, after pitching at least 200 innings in every season since 2004, save for a mark of “only” 181 in 2009. It’s also worth noting that the Phillies hold a club option on Oswalt. However, it’s a $16M option with a $2M buyout. As of last week, the organization was still discussing whether or not to pick up the option. If I were to bet on it, I’d bet on them not picking the option up and buying Oswalt out. If they do, should the Yankees give him a look?

Performance wise, there really isn’t much to complain about. His strikeout rate dropped a bit this year, but he still displayed good control and kept the ball inside the park. His peripherals have stayed pretty solid, though his xFIP did shoot up to 3.95 this year (103 xFIP-). There has, however, been a steady decline in his fastball velocity, which is unsettling, especially considering Oswalt’s advanced age. Despite that loss of velocity, Oswalt’s fastball was still 0.69 runs above average per every 100 fastballs, not far off from his career mark of 0.73 RAA/100 fastballs. For the second year in a row, and the third time in four years, Oswalt’s groundball percentage was above 45%. So, even with a loss in zip on his fastball, Oswalt managed to be effective in his time on the hill.

Health is the obviously the biggest issue with Oswalt. Back in June, he talked about his back issues possibly ending his career. And, as of the September 29th rankings, Oswalt projects as a Type-A. If he’s offered arbitration, he’ll cost the team a draft pick if they sign him. But, I wouldn’t expect the Phillies to offer him arbitration. If they aren’t going to pick up his option, why bother offering him arbitration?

So if he’s available, should the Yankees sign Roy Oswalt? Maybe. By no means should he be plan A or even plan B or C. Though he’s performed well–and consistently–for a while now, his back health is probably enough to scare teams off. Though it’s what I’d offer, I doubt Oswalt would go for a one year deal with a decent base ($9-11M?) and a chance to make some more based on innings thresholds. I might not hate a two year deal (2/$20?), but I think Oswalt could still do better financially elsewhere. I’m more inclined to take a risk on C.J. Wilson or Yu Darvish, but Oswalt could definitely make sense if other options fall through. Let’s keep an eye on him.

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31 Responses to What about Roy Oswalt?

  1. UYF1950 says:
    October 18, 2011 at 9:18 am

    My preference is still Buehrle on a 2 or 3 year deal max. I think CJ Wilson is going to be to expensive in years and dollars for the Yankees. Darvish, if he can be had between posting fee and contract for 5 or 6 years max and $60 to $72m max then I say go for it. More the that for Darvish and I’m not sure the risk out weights the reward.
    I love as option 4 to see Oswalt on a 1 year deal but I doubt that will happen. I’m sure if Oswalt is willing to settle for 1 year at $8/$11M he would resign with the Phillies, 2 years $18/$20M is an option, but is it enough? Only one way to find out if Oswalt does become available, that to make him an offer.

    Reply
    • Matt Imbrogno says:
      October 18, 2011 at 9:31 am

      I didn’t mention Buehrle, but I guess I should have. I’d prefer Oswalt to Buehrle. My options go:

      1. CC
      2. Darvish
      3. Wilson
      4. Oswalt
      5. Buehrle

      I rank Darvish over Wilson because I think the reward is higher and I don’t want to go 4-5 years for Wilson, which I think he might get after this season. I wouldn’t go more than 3-4 for him.

      Reply
      • UYF1950 says:
        October 18, 2011 at 9:38 am

        I like Buehrle more because I don’t think he would cost that much more on a per season basis over the length of a contract he’s pitched in the American League and he’s a lefty.
        My basic thinking, if the pitchers are somewhat close go with the guy who’s pitched in the AL.

        Reply
        • Matt Imbrogno says:
          October 18, 2011 at 9:42 am

          Normally I’d tend to agree, but the fact that MB has racked up fewer than 5 K/9 in the last three seasons makes me fear for him in the ALE. He’s done a decent job of keeping the ball in the park despite playing at USCF and his control is still awesome, though.

          Reply
          • T.O. Chris says:
            October 18, 2011 at 8:30 pm

            I don’t think his stuff holds up well at all in the East. He needs to stay with the White Sox or head to the NL. I don’t see him as much more than a 4 or 5 in the AL East to be honest.

            Reply
  2. Steve S. says:
    October 18, 2011 at 9:42 am

    To add to your point about health, Oswalt has always been a power pitcher with a slight build. Teams try to steer clear of pitchers with his frame after age 30-32 and he’s past even that point. Year to year, if at all.

    Also, IIRC I thought that Oswalt was considering retirement a few years back, even before his back started bothering him. He never wanted to leave Texas, but the situation deteriorated so he made an exception and agreed to go to the Phillies. If I’m right about that, I don’t think he’ll want to change cities again. He’s not a lifer, but someone who will gladly go home.

    Reply
  3. UYF1950 says:
    October 18, 2011 at 9:53 am

    One thing I think we can all agree on is that this years FA class has pretty slim pickings.

    My only thought after what I’ve alweardy said above about Wilson and Darvish is if the Yankees are going to sign 1 of the following (Oswalt, Buehrle or re-sign Garcia) I rather it be Buehrle on a 2 or 3 year deal max. But I guess we will all see how this shakes out relatively soon.

    I’m waiting more for the 2013 FA class and when the Yankees free up some more money.

    Reply
    • Matt Imbrogno says:
      October 18, 2011 at 10:07 am

      If we’re talking about waiting for 2013′s class, I wouldn’t want to sign any non-Sabathia/Darvish/Wilson pitcher for more than one year.

      Reply
      • says:
        October 18, 2011 at 10:21 am

        Hiroki Kuroda on a one or two year deal anyone?

        Reply
        • UYF1950 says:
          October 18, 2011 at 10:24 am

          Not a bad choice for 1 year I guess if he’s willing to leave the West Coast.

          Reply
        • T.O. Chris says:
          October 18, 2011 at 8:32 pm

          No chance he leaves the West Coast. The man wouldn’t even be traded for less than half a year, to escape the Dodgers for a playoff team. I don’t see how he signs for a full year on the East coast after that. Especially when he has as many West Coast teams as he does to choose from.

          Reply
      • UYF1950 says:
        October 18, 2011 at 10:21 am

        Don’t necessarily disagree. But a 2012 starting rotation even assuming CC re-signs of: CC, Nova, Hughes, AJ and Garcia. Quite honestly concerns me. Way to many question marks in that group as a whole after CC. My thinking is if the Yankees sign Buehrle for 2 or 3 years even that gives them the opinion of unload AJ and the last year of his contract (of course they will have to eat a portion to make that happen). I’d feel a little more comfortable with a 2012 rotation of CC, Nova, Buehrle, Hughes and AJ. Then if necessary if either Hughes or AJ falters in mid to late 2012 (AJ more likely) the Yankees can give one of the “B’s” a shot at starting.

        Reply
        • says:
          October 18, 2011 at 10:37 am

          I just threw Kuroda out there. I know his name has come up in the recent pact. Not sure if there’s any validity to including him as an option at this point.

          It’s early, but I get the sense that the top of the rotation will be Sabathia or Wilson/Darvish, not Sabathia AND Wilson/Darvish. They’re not going to lavish 2 guys with 6 year deals for a combined $200+ million dollars this offseason.

          Between the promise shown by Nova and Hughes (in 2010), plus the young kids coming up, and the returns they received from Garcia and Colon on short money/short term deals, I think the Yankees will decide to either:

          A–Get CC done quickly or
          B–Decide between CC, Wilson and Darvish, and spend big money on whomever they deem the best from that group

          So, take one guy from CC/Wilson/Darvish, figure on Nova, Burnett and Hughes, and the #5 will be a spring training battle between an unknown veteran (or two) and Noesi.

          Unless, of course, the Yankees go in a completely different direction (Montero, Banuelos, et al for Felix Hernandez)…

          Reply
          • T.O. Chris says:
            October 18, 2011 at 8:34 pm

            Darvish won’t cost anywhere near 6 years 200 million. That’s just crazy. Dice K was 6 years 103 million including the posting fee, I don’t think Yu will cost as much as Dice K in either contract or posting Fee. So at the end of the day Yu’s actual contract will be less than 50 million, and could easily be between 30-45 million for 6 years.

            Reply
  4. says:
    October 18, 2011 at 10:28 am

    The latest, via Jon Heyman, is the CWS are expected to re-sign Buehrle to a 2 year deal. That’s good news because it means Danks and/or Floyd will be traded (Sale goes into rotation). Preferably Danks. Danks is as good as CJ Wilson, IMHO, and younger to boot.

    Reply
  5. Michael P. says:
    October 18, 2011 at 11:50 am

    I would only want Oswalt on a one year deal. Thats it, no need to commit more years than necessary to a guy like him. Money doesn’t matter to the Yankees that much, but years do, especially now as we are headed to another early to mid 2000s team of aging stars. Danks or Floyd…I think I would rather Danks to be honest. And in the FA class of next year he is one of the two guys I would want the Yankees to sign.

    Reply
    • Matt Imbrogno says:
      October 18, 2011 at 12:09 pm

      I agree with the money thing. I wrote it last year–and I’m sure I’ll write it again at some point this year–but there are two devils in contract negotiations: the years devil and the money devil. The Yankees should always placate the money devil while combating the years devil.

      Reply
  6. UYF1950 says:
    October 18, 2011 at 2:02 pm

    I don’t subscribe to ESPN Insider but I see a headline in the rumors section that says “Greinke to Rangers, Yankees?” Does anyone think that rumor is based on any facts what so ever? And if so does anyone think the Yankees would have any more interest now then they apparently had a few short months ago? Considering that Greinke only has 1 year left of team control.

    Reply
    • bornwithpinstripes says:
      October 18, 2011 at 7:33 pm

      lets hope he goes to the rangers..

      Reply
    • T.O. Chris says:
      October 18, 2011 at 8:37 pm

      I don’t see how Cashman’s concern for Greinke is any less now than it was then. Any trade would also require a long term extension to make sense, and I don’t get the feeling the Yankees want to risk anything long term with Zack.

      Reply
      • Michael P. says:
        October 18, 2011 at 10:41 pm

        Not really a fan of paying twice for a player. With Grienke we would have to pay in prospects and then if we desired to keep him, pay with a contract. As to if I even want him on the team that is a different can of worms I don’t want to open. Ahhh hell I love a good debate. Answer…yup!! Hahaha

        Reply
        • T.O. Chris says:
          October 18, 2011 at 10:48 pm

          I have been firmly in the anti-Greinke camp for a while. I just don’t think he is the kind of guy who handles big markets well, and I don’t want to take the risk on another Burnett with him.

          Reply
  7. Michael P. says:
    October 18, 2011 at 2:53 pm

    Might want to keep an eye on the Adam Wainwright situation too

    Reply
  8. bornwithpinstripes says:
    October 18, 2011 at 7:32 pm

    i see kevin brown when i think of oswalt in the a.l. east

    Reply

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