Story of a Season: Robinson Cano

By On October 5, 2011 · 7 Comments · In Player Analysis, Statistical Analysis

Russell Martin
Mark Teixeira

For the third year in a row, and the fourth time in his career, turned in a .370+ wOBA. His .375 mark was good for a 133 wRC+ this year. Isn’t it a little ho hum at this point? While we shouldn’t take it for granted, we almost expect Cano to do this well. His swing is so sweet and features a perfect blend of contact and power that is jealousy inducing. He was second (to in both categories) in wOBA/wRC+ among AL 2B, and led the bunch in slugging and IsoP. All told, he was worth 5.6 fWAR. So, how did he get here?

Cano absolutely spanked the ball this year, turning in a career high 22.3% line drive rate. His FB% dropped big time from last year (31.0% this year, 36.5% in ’10), but was just one below his career average of 32%. But, Cano managed to drive the ball big time when he hit it in the air. His HR/FB%, 17.0, was the highest of his career and continued an upward trend that started in 2009.

In terms of month by month performance, Cano was pretty damn great all over the place. He started the year hot, hitting to a .417 wOBA/163 wRC+ in April. He slumped in May, wOBAing just .308 and wRC+ing just 88. In June through September, Cano turned in the following splits: .371/131; .365/127; .431/172; and .355/120. There was one big valley, then a lot of peaks. Cano was most definitely consistent this year.

Despite all this great stuff, there are still things we could be concerned about with Cano. His uBB% is still low at just 4.03%. His Out of Zone swing% shot up to 41.6% this year. To give that some context, the league average rose 1.3% from 2010-2011. Cano’s O-Swing% ran up 5.1%. It would appear that Cano’s swing is almost “too good,” if that makes any sense. He has so much confidence in it that he’ll swing at just about everything. Sometimes, he’ll put good wood on it, but other times it means he’s chased out of the zone and gotten himself out.

Honestly, there isn’t much to say about Cano that we haven’t already said this year. He’s an absolutely great hitter and any complaint we can levy against him is going to be small. The lack of on-base skills is worrisome, but as long as he keeps his contact and power skills, he’ll make up for that lack. When the contact and power skills start to diminish, I’ll get more concerned.

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7 Responses to Story of a Season: Robinson Cano

  1. Frank says:
    October 5, 2011 at 12:08 pm

    He’s absolutely a great player. It’s scary to think how much better his numbers might be if he had just half th plate discipline Swisher has.

    Reply
  2. Don says:
    October 5, 2011 at 2:29 pm

    Interesting analysis. He was definitely not as selective at the plate this year, mostly chasing pitches inside off the plate in the 1st half of the year, and swinging very early in the count. I don’t have any numbers to back that up but that’s just from watching him play. His second half was much better – as your figures show. Maybe the Home Run Derby doesn’t have to mean death to your swing.

    Reply
  3. David says:
    October 5, 2011 at 2:36 pm

    The Yanks have a great organization.Their scouts fine great young prospects who turn into outstanding pros.Robby is just one of many.This is how the Yankees will continue to rule the AL East.

    Reply
  4. Tom says:
    October 5, 2011 at 4:45 pm

    This article might make some sense if the author would explain the confusing statistics he references.

    Reply
  5. nat cohen says:
    October 6, 2011 at 12:17 pm

    CANO DOES A GOOD JOB ALL AROUND EXCEPT FOR ONE MAJOR FLAW…WHEN HE HITS A GROUNDER ON THE RIGHT SIDE..HE TROTS AND DOES NOT RUN. THERE WERE TIMES, IF HE RAN, HE COULD HAVE BEATEN THROWS. HE CERTAINLY NOT A GARDNER, JETER, NUNEZ OR A SWISHER. HE SHOULD SEE FILMS OF HANK BAUER

    Reply

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