Sherman-Long cold winter in the Bronx
Sorry to bum you guys out, but Joel Sherman thinks we should lower our sights as Yankee fans for this off season because he doesn’t think there will be much activity. He spoke to a highly placed Yankee official about their plans for this winter, and came away with the idea that they will bring the 2011 squad back pretty much intact, hoping to retain CC and otherwise doing little besides filling out the bench. He writes:
..I did not sense they had any real affinity for C.J. Wilson, even before his postseason record fell to 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 10 homers allowed in 40 innings. The valuation the Yankees see is a No. 3-4 starter, not a No. 1-2, and Wilson seems headed toward receiving more than A.J. Burnett’s five-year, $82.5 million contract
For those on the Matt Cain bandwagon, I heard the Giants have made it so clear they are not trading him that the Yankees have not asked about the righty in “years.” The A’s want a No. 1 starter return for Gio Gonzalez, and the Yankees don’t view him as an ace. John Danks took a step back this past year. Many key Yankee voices like Yu Darvish, but the internal sense is Steinbrenner and general manager Brian Cashman are not going to authorize a big outlay after the Kei Igawa disaster and Daisuke Matsuzaka’s plummet for Boston.
Personally I’m not buying that the Yankees plan to stand pat, but I do think most of the player and availability assessments Sherman makes are spot-on. Sherman mentions in the article the Yankee official conceded that all of this goes out the window if CC bolts. But assuming Sabathia returns, the Yanks may not have any payroll space if they plan on maintaining something resembling their 2011 payroll. As RAB’s Mike Axisa pointed out earlier this week, they have an estimated 25M available if you keep last year’s 207 M payroll the same and don’t include Sabathia. CC earned 24M last year so…you can figure out the rest. That’s enough for CC and a bench.
But the Yankees go into every off season saying they plan to pare back payroll and have always wound up in the same 200-210 mil range for the past 4 seasons. I put this report in the same category as those, that of positioning themselves for the offseason. This winter figures to be less about free agents and more about trades, so the Yankee brass is taking a public ‘we’re happy where we are’ stance as a starting point to prospective negotiations. That tact has paid off for them in the past. Remember they didn’t actively pursue Swisher or Granderson, but when they became available they moved aggressively. I have no doubt they will do the same should a front line starter be dangled. We all know the 2012 FA list is strong, the White Sox have too many starters and that the big money starts kicking in this year for guys like King Felix, Josh Johnson and James Shields. Will one or more become available? Stay tuned…
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Pretty much in line with what I thought would happen. I was hoping for 2 signings to shore up starting pitching. The way I look at it we have:
1. CC
2.
3. Nova
4. Hughes
5. Burnett
Its disappointing but the 200 million ceiling that they impose on themselves is very real, and neither CJ or Darvish are the kind of cant miss franchise cornerstones the Yankees will be willing to break through that ceiling on. Darvish might be, but also might totally flop. Well it looks like Hector Noesi, Andrew Brackman, Adam Warren, David Phelps, and DJ Mitchell better get themselves ready. This rotation certainly looks like its going to need some reinforcements.
That seems to be the most likely scenario, but as I said above not landing CC or a deal could change things. I’m keeping an open mind
Andrew Brackman can get unready. After what he showed, or couldn’t show, in Scranton as a starter he won’t be given a spot even if every other Yankee died in a plane crash.
This is true. He has one year left with the club I believe so might as well see if he can be a long man or reliever. They should be given fair shot at the 5th man spot with Brackman or DJ Mitchell being kept in the pen as a long man. If they are effective that is. Way I figure Mitchell and Brackman are the low men on that totem pole I wouldn’t care if their development is stunted as much as the others.
Brackman has no developing left to do in my opinion. He’ll be 26 come December, and I don’t think his control will ever let him have a career as a starter. To be honest I’m not sure if he will have much of a career at all, but his best chance is the pen.
I don’t see Mitchell as a starter either, though he could be a good pen piece. He could surprise in a similar manner to Nova I suppose, but I don’t put him on even minor league Nova’s level.
I have no problem letting the kids compete for a 5th spot in the rotation (if one is needed), so long as Betances and Banuelos aren’t involved. Neither one is ready to be a starter in the major leagues yet, and I feel both need as close to a full season in triple A as we can give them.
I will say I don’t feel very good about our playoff chances if we go into the season with a rotation of CC, Nova, Burnett, Hughes, and Warren/Noesi/Phelps.
We’ll just have to see how things shake out for now I guess. Which is the hardest part!
The offense would certainly be required to carry us into the postseason. There would be no WS victory either with that rotation. And just think that is if we can somehow keep running Burnett, Nova, and Hughes and one or more of them aren’t ineffective or injured. I agree completely with the Betances and Banuelos argument. They shouldn’t get anything more than a Sept. call up this year. They haven’t even dominated AAA so to call them up for the majors is a stretch.
I’m sorry I don’t by the “tweaking” of the bench. As that’s all they intend on doing. Granted they may not make a “big” splash in FA market this year. But I can certainly see them going after Buehrle or Edwin Jackson neither should brake the bank and still leave them money to address the “bench” without a substantial increase over the 2011 payroll. But I can certainly see the Yankees availing themselves in the trade market this fall/winter.
The RAB number of $25 million to spend number is short at least $10 million, and probably $20:
1. 3 of the past 4 years, payroll has been closer to $210 than $200. It was $213 in 2010 after the Berkman/Wood deals, and $207 this year.
2. Mike A. is counting about $10 million in salaries for players on the 40- but not 25-man roster, and it’s not clear that these players are included when the FO is thinking about that $200 figure.
You have to figure that the Yankees have CC money and then $10-20 million left over if the right #2 starter is available.
My guess is Wilson is a no-go (not interested), Darvish is a maybe if the posting fee is reasonable, and otherwise they look to do 1 or 2 one-year deals of up to $10 million (Garcia and/or Kuroda, for ex.), with another $5 going to the bench (A. Jones and a Chavez-type).
Give the Mariners whatever they want for Felix Hernandez.
Since you brought him up, I have to mention that the Yanks were publicly saying last year that there was nobody exciting available, and meanwhile they were practically BEGGING the Mariners for King Felix. So both things can be true.
Also, the big money for Felix kicks in during the next three years (18.5, 19.5, 20) If they plan on dealing him, I would think it would happen either this year or next.
I think Yankee fans would be better off if all Yankee fans just forgot Felix Hernandez even existed. He isn’t being traded, and if he was he isn’t being traded to us. At the end of the winter he will stay in Seattle. Then we get to go through another whole trading deadline of proposed trades for Felix which won’t happen. The whole thing is an exercise in futility.
I agree. He’s our white whale, and as long as Jack Z is the GM in Seattle I see no reason why he’s coming here.
I think yankees will try to steal Josh Johnson like how the sox did with beckett. He will be making 13.75M/yr for the next two years left on his contract plus coming off shoulder injury. He turning 28 in January, so he is still young. Maybe Romine, Betances (control problem, i doubt he will ever find it) & Nova.
we will retain CC, 99.9% sure. Management will pursue #1 or 2 to go with CC after what happen in the post season.
I was almost the conductor for the “land Josh Johnson” train. At this point however I don’t want to go anywhere near him. He’s ended his last two years on the DL thanks to shoulder injuries, and last years was worse and had him out longer. Shoulder injuries are a huge worry, and someone having two season ending ones back to back years should probably be avoided.
This. Shoulders are tricky, more likely to recur and more likely to leave you a shell of who you were previously even if the surgery is “successful”
Steve, now there’s a sexy come-on. Trading, if you find a loose interesting piece, but whom? We have a collection of interesting pieces already.
CJ plugs into Michael P.’s rotation pretty dandy, but tie the purse strings so defined? I’d druther get Cole Hamels next year. But wait.. both CJ and Cole would love to hear the siren call from home, would think.
Alvin, be waitin’ on your calls, I’m thinking. Mr. Betances was clearly scared to death, give him a chance before you throw him away. Lad may yet fire up.
And the bench needs to hardly tweak: Jones was dandy from the right side, Nunie’s learning, and Chavez is a very clever hitter, if he can get some swings in. Shame he was out when Alex went down; it’s settled, the foot, isn’t it? Mighty glove, too.
weird post
hunh
Says a little, says a lot,comfortable compression. Question?
The question that interests me is for and with whom we would trade, and how that would benefit.
The only trade variable ex-pitching, considering contracts and practicalities, that we could benefit from is more clutch hitting, maybe clever hitting, from right field.
Either Swish converts to a swing that can better line-drive it, or we find a Paul O’Neil, as the missing dynamic.
I love Swish, and he made it happen several times, but not so much toward the end of the year. Maybe, it’s just in the instance he pressed, but as I recall, he had difficulty when the spotlight was on him in the latter months.
Of course, it’s obvious Tex should work on the same, past obvious. Left handed, seems he only has a home run mode. Toward the end, he did start to hit left of middle, couple times. He should risk converting his stance and swing to multi-purpose, because sometimes you just want a hit, you know?
Robbie’s the model, Tex should visit camp in the Dominican Republica this winter. Of course, Brett is questing to master the question, so he better show, too.
Let’s not forget our old friend Kei Igawa comes off the payroll. What was his salary 10Mil?
Salary was 4 mil, posting fee is separate. But I’m sure Axisa took that into account.
Gentlemen, wondering what some of your thoughts are on either: Bruce Chen or Aaron Harang? On 1 or at most 2 year deals? I believe Harang has a mutual option with the SD that may or may not be pick up, I believe.
Just wondering what anyone thinks, if the Yankees go the “cheap” route in 2012.
Bruce Chen makes me queasy, but then again so did Freddy Garcia this time last year. I liked Harang a few seasons ago, but his numbers have all been trending the wrong way for 2-3 years. I think he’s another Dusty Baker special.
I’ll pass on both. If we’re going that route, let Noesi start the season and see if one of the B’s asserts themselves by midseason.
I’d much rather go Edwin Jackson or even Buehrle who I don’t want over either one. Harang had some moments this year for the Pads, but his numbers and stuff probably won’t translate to Yankee stadium/AL East.
Chen is coming off his best career season (WAR wise) but even that wasn’t that great. He’s real hit and miss, and when he misses, boy does he miss. He’d be a better option than Harang since he’s a lefty and did his work in the AL last season. However I don’t see either as anything more than minor league deals with invites to spring training. For the record I don’t expect to find any Garcia or Colon type production out of the scrap heap this year, though I didn’t expect to find Colon and Garcia like production out of Colon and Garcia.
Yanks say they don’t view Gio Gonzalez as an ace, this might be part of the reason
Ouch. WHIP was almost 1.5 this year away from spacious Oakland Collesium.
His numbers are also awful against AL East competition. His control still has a long way to go, and he might never overcome it. His Ks help strand base runners, but how long can you live with that bend don’t break strategy.
he’s a good looking pitcher, though, maybe he needs to be more aggressive. Certainly not an ace, though a nice looking lefty who could spin a nice game.
I think he is talent wise what we can hope for Banuelos to become. A good left handed starter with number 2 upside, a good fastball, and slight control problems.
What they will ask for him though is an Ace return, and I wouldn’t pay that. I might trade Banuelos and a C/D level prospect or two though.
Not me: said he isn’t an ace, not that he couldn’t be. For Banuelos, I’d much rather wait and see, and I hope they won’t throw him on some spin o’ the dice.
I’m sort of confused at what the first part means? Who isn’t an ace yet but could be? Gio or Banuelos?
Either way I don’t really see either one as becoming aces of a staff. They both have a lot of talent, but I don’t see either going past very solid number 2 status. Both are likely going to be held back by control problems.
Trading Banuelos for Gio is no “spin of the dice”. Trading Banuelos for Gio would be the exact same concept as trading Austin Jackson for Curtis Granderson. You take a prospect who could turn out to be nothing, and you trade him for an established player with the prospects upside realized. Except in this scenario Gio is younger than Granderson, and to some degree could become more valuable.
I wouldn’t trade Banuelos and a bunch of other high grade prospects, but if they were willing to deal Gonzalez for Banuelos and some fringe guys anyone would be naive not to take the deal. Gio at worst is what he is now, but should continue to develop. At worst Banuelos washes out, or ends up in the pen. While his upside is very similar to Gonzalez’s. The A’s wouldn’t make that trade, but if they would you do it for sure.
People have to beware of falling so in love with the idea of a “home grown prospect” that they lose sight of value, expectations, and reality. I’ve seen way too many Yankee fans with the idea that the worst outcome for Betances and Banuelos is both become number 3-4 starters, with likely upsides of aces. The reality is likely one won’t stay in the rotation, and if either makes it to number 2, or ace status, we’d be extremely lucky. I don’t want to dog either one, as I’m a huge fan of both guys. However facts are most top prospects flame out.
That’s if you want to be reasonable and calculating, say, like a GM. Me, I want to be a clairvoyant fan, and plunk pennies in the well.
My statement was meant to be double-sensed: neither is now; either could be; I’d prefer to keep what I have got, just because he might be.
Your logic is quite sound, and would seem to match the thinking of a GM who is risk averse, knowing the odds of failure. Gio looks to be of a similar style of delivery, and has already beaten many hitters. He has controlled his emotions enough to succeed at the ML level for 30? victories, which is no small thing. He hasn’t landed famously in jail.
You mentioned control weakness for Gio, and Manny also suffered from high walk rates this season. Walk rates can be high by attitude or control. Hope they discern any differences between the lads before they ascribe cloneship.
My preference is based only on a beautiful spring demonstration. See why I made it vague?
oh, and if your logic holds, Oakland would ask for a second piece, not a fringy prospect, to compensate them for the development risk they took, and we eschew. Or, they see something superior in Manuel.
While I am a fan, I try to not think as one. By rule fans are “fanatical”, that can make one biased, irrational, and naive. I enjoy the fan mindset during a game, but I try and set it aside when talking the game. Sometimes it gets the better of me and I can’t, but I do my best.
My point is that between the two Banuelos is the roll of the dice. I’m not saying he can’t be better than Gio, but it it’s just as likely he isn’t as good as he’s better.
Like I said it won’t happen, The A’s want an ace’s return for him. But if Beane went crazy, or left, and they were willing to take say Banuelos, Noesi, and another prosect I would do it.
I don’t think any of Oaklands young pitchers should be traded for, at least not for Montero. Same for Josh Johnson. Shoulder injuries are a lot harder to recover from than elbow injuries. I am all for letting the kids go at it over signing a 1 year deal with a guy who has no future with the team and may not even pitch significantly better than the farm kids.
I would’ve considered trading Montero in a deal for Brett Anderson, but he’s injured and probably won’t be back until mid way through next year after TJ.
As I said above I would trade Banuelos for Gio, but I wouldn’t include anyone else of any real note like Betances, Montero, Etc… He is the reasonable upside of Banuelos so it makes since to trade him for what you hop he can become. Somewhat like Grandy for Jackson.
I personally would like to see if the Yankees could add Wilson, though I won’t be mad either way. If he fits in do it, if not don’t. However I can’t say I would agree with labeling him a 3-4 pitcher. Not very many number 3 pitchers are posting 4.6 and 5.9 WAR seasons (outside of Philly). The Yankees sold AJ as a number 2 coming off of a 3.2, 2.6, and 5.5 WAR 3 year stretch. So I don’t see how they can possibly be serious calling CJ a 3. He’s no ace, but he is a solid number 2. If you want argue against signing him, I’m fine with that, but he’s no 3-4 pitcher as things stand.
I like Wilson, reminds me a lot of Andy Pettitte in terms of style and stuff. A few bad postseason starts mean nothing to me. I’m not getting too caught in #2 or #3 labels, but I think the Yanks are right that he shouldn’t be paid like an ace.
If the years are reasonable (5 or less) and the price tag is reasonable (15-ish) I’d love to have him. But as I posted before, I don’t see where the payroll space is coming from unless the Yanks find a suitor for Burnett.
The funny thing about people saying don’t sign CJ because of his postseason starts is, CC was horrible in the postseason overall before we signed him. His only really good run in the playoffs was 09. I believe this is due to tiring out, not some choke job, or lack of “it”. But no one seemed to mind it when we signed him, or now when we have to re-sign him.
Since the subject of the Yankees perhaps only looking at “tweaking” their roster and using some of what resources they have left over for their bench. I was wondering what fans thoughts are about Jerry Hairston, Jr.? I believe he will very shortly become a FA, doesn’t appear to make a lot of money and on the surface appears to be an upgrade on what the Yankees had in 2011. Plus he can fill in at several positions and did play for a short time with the Yankees a couple of years back.
Just wondering what fans think of Hairston, Jr. as a possible target?
Me and Professor Longnose were actually talking about Jerry the other day. I have wanted him back on the Yanks ever since 09. I thought he would’ve been a good trade deadline move this year, and I would love to sign him to the bench. He can play 3rd when Alex is DH’ing, injured, or resting. He can play the outfield if Joe wants to sit Gardner for matchups, or if Swisher struggles. He can play SS on days when Jeter needs a DH day. He’s an upgraded finished version of what people hope Nunez to be for this team.
I’d be curious to learn more about Gio Gonzalez. Not sure what Yanks’ brass saw against us this year, but I saw filthy, great pitching. If CC goes “A-Rod” on us with his opt out-seems logical to me- am I missing something?
Keep checking in, I’m working on a piece that should run sometime this week, or at the latest by next weekend.
He walks a tight rope between very good and mediocre. He walks way too many batters, he gets away with it a lot by striking guys out at a tremendous clip to strand base runners. However when he faces a patient veteran hitting club, such as the Sox or Yanks, it comes back to bite him. He’s got great stuff, but his home/road splits are huge, and suggest that to a degree he might never be as good on another team as he is with the A’s. He gets away wit walking batter more there because of all the foul terriory, and because he gets to face the West’s competition so often. He eats the Angels alive for instance. He’s still young, and has tremendous talent as a lefty, but he has a lot of question marks as to what he can become. In some ways he reminds of a left handed Burnett. Someone who has great stuff, but who’s control will always hold him back.
He throws a very nice fastball, curveball, and changeup, with the curve being his best secondary offering. Though the change is quite nice for someone his age, who throws as hard as he does. I personally really like him, and followed him all year as he was on my fantasy team. Though by the end of the year I had to cut him because his WHIP was incredibly high all year, and as the season went along it caught up to him and his ERA soared.
He’s the type of pitcher I know the Yankees would love to trade for, but he isn’t worth an ace package in return, and I wouldn’t include Montero in the deal. Because he has as many question marks as he does, and because his numbers against the AL East are god awful. As I layed out above though, I would trade Banuelos and some other lower level prospects for him. Though Beane won’t trade him for that. He’s due a pay raise, but not so signifigant that he needs to be out of Oakland this year.
Why isn’t anyone pencilling in Garcia to that rotation? Dis he not pitch well or something? Who’d be a better 5 starter?
I really don’t see him being brought back. Sure he pitched well this year, but he the Yankees caught lightning in a bottle with Garcia and Colon this year. To expect to do it again, with the exact same players is fools gold in my opinion.
If Garcia or Colon want to accept another minor league deal with an invite to spring training, bring them in. If they want guaranteed deals, with anything more than incentives they can both walk on.
The goal should be for CC to be brought back, add someone for the 2 spot, have Nova the 3 guy, AJ and Hughes 4 and 5. Anything less isn’t a championship rotation.