More awsome research on catcher defense

By On October 18, 2011 · 16 Comments · In Statistical Analysis

A little while back, Moshe wrote about some interesting research on catcher pitch framing, which highlighted the value of having behind the plate as compared to .  Today, Bojan Koprivica of The Hardball Times has an article on his research in another important aspect of catcher defense: pitch-blocking.

Prior to this research, most analysis of a catcher’s ability to block pitches was rather simplistic, namely, by counting the number of passed balls and wild pitches they surrendered.  While this is not necessarily an incorrect metric for catcher effectiveness, it certainly would not account for the differences in the pitchers they are catching.  One would expect a catcher who catches knuckleballers or a wild pitcher such as AJ Burnett to give up more than their share of wild pitches and passed balls, while a guy who catches a pitcher with excellent command like would presumably have fewer.

Koprivica tries to account for this by modeling the locations where pitches land or cross the plate, and looking at the frequency at which pitches in these locations got away from the catcher.  For example, a ball down the middle of the plate got away from the catcher less than 0.2 percent of the time, while a ball over the catcher’s head got away nearly 33 percent of the time.  There are a number of other models and calculations that are interesting to look at if you want to see more explanation for how he obtained his results, but my main takeaway is the valuation of catcher by pitch-blocking ability.

By looking at catchers with at least 5000 chances between 2008 and 2011, Koprivica was able to evaluate which catchers were the best at blocking pitches based on the expected number of passed pitches due to the pitches they caught.  The top of the list would not surprise too many people: , , , , and , all catchers with good defensive reputations.  At the bottom of the list we see some familiar faces: , Jorge Posada, , JP Arencibia, and Jose Molina (with at 6th-worst).

The difference in value between the best and worst catcher was about one win per year (measured by the number of runs saved/allowed due to passed pitches), a fairly substantial amount for a factor that until now has not been measured exceptionally well.  The article then combined the findings on passed pitches with previous research on throwing arms and pitch framing to determine overall catcher defensive value.  Pitch-framing was determined to have a stronger contribution to value than pitch-blocking or throwing arm, and consequently Russell Martin was #6 on the overall list despite not making the top 15 in pitch-blocking.

So what’s the Yankee takeaway here?  Once again, we see that Jorge Posada has been a terrible defender over the last few seasons, while Russell Martin represented a substantial improvement behind the plate.  For this reason, don’t expect Jesus Montero to get substantial playing time at catcher next season unless he shows major improvement in spring training.

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16 Responses to More awsome research on catcher defense

  1. Professor Longnose says:
    October 18, 2011 at 1:34 pm

    Is there a quantifiable difference between terrible and substantial improvement? How many runs or wins is Martin’s defense worth compared with Posada’s?

    Reply
    • Steve S. says:
      October 18, 2011 at 8:01 pm

      Read the whole series, its bigger than any of us (Me, Mo and Eric) previously thought. Especially the piece on pitch framing. Seems small, but the difference between being ahead or behind in the count makes all the difference in the world for a pitcher. Hitters get more aggressive when ahead, and most pitchers don’t have the kind of stuff that allows them to fall behind.

      Reply
  2. Cris Pengiucci says:
    October 18, 2011 at 3:45 pm

    My take-away from this article is that Martin provided a measureable difference in catching defense over Posada and will also have a measureable difference in catching over Montero. In a vacuum (no other position for Posada or Montero), would that difference out-weigh the difference in offensive production? While this probably won’t be a major issue with Montero in the 2012 season (I would expect him to be the full time or close to full time DH), it may become an issue in 2013 and beyond.

    Reply
    • Steve S. says:
      October 18, 2011 at 8:07 pm

      Don’t forget Martin was a solid offensive Catcher as well (#5 wOBA in AL) so the differential between the two bats would have to be pretty huge to make up for the two being on the opposite ends of the spectrum defensively.

      Reply
  3. Daveinmd says:
    October 18, 2011 at 5:24 pm

    I believe the plan should have Montero be the back up catcher and DH most of the games when he’s not the backup. So he’d catch about 50 games and DH about 95. Then he’s the full-time DH next postseason.

    Reply
    • Steve S. says:
      October 18, 2011 at 8:11 pm

      I think the plan will be Martin C, Romine backup C and Montero DH. Most teams want a good defender as their backup and don’t care about the bat. The reason for that is if Martin gets hurt and AJ is on the mound, you could have a fiasco with Montero as your sole backup.

      Reply
      • T.O. Chris says:
        October 18, 2011 at 8:48 pm

        Montero and AJ is like the the backstop combination from hell… So many passed balls… The horror, the horror!

        Reply
      • Michael P. says:
        October 18, 2011 at 10:29 pm

        I disagree with Romine as backup catcher. I would send him to AAA first, a level he has yet to play at. The backup catcher role in the majors would really only be around in case Martin got hurt while Montero was the DH that day if you think about it. Therefore I would prefer to use Cervelli in that role and not stunt the growth of the kid who may end up actually being the catcher of the future. Cervelli not getting a lot of consistent playing time doesn’t bother me.

        Reply
        • T.O. Chris says:
          October 18, 2011 at 10:33 pm

          I know you hate us agreeing Michael haha, but I’m with you on this one. Romine needs to be in Scranton for his bat. He clearly has the defensive ability to catch for the Yankees now in a pinch, but his bat leaves a lot to be desired.

          Reply
  4. Michael P. says:
    October 18, 2011 at 6:29 pm

    He should be full time DH coming into this season, only catch when Martin needs a break, and play first when Tex needs a break. No need to platoon the kid. He is going to have to learn how to hit big league righties as well, so we might as well let him learn and take his bumps and bruises while we still have productive veterans we can count on to buoy his inconsistent performance. If the Yankees have no intention of bringing Martin back after this upcoming year, they should take advantage and play him as often as they possibly can.

    Reply
  5. T.O. Chris says:
    October 18, 2011 at 9:18 pm

    I have long believed A catchers defense is one of the most important things in all of baseball, it’s good to see studies finally coming closer to proving this belief.

    I really blew me away to find out how many people either don’t care about catchers defense, or those that just don’t understand it’s importance because of the lack of defensive statistics.

    It was so refreshing to watch Martin operate this year, the Yankees would be crazy to not bring him back.

    Reply
    • Michael P. says:
      October 18, 2011 at 10:26 pm

      Not bringing him back is even a thought in peoples head?

      Reply
      • T.O. Chris says:
        October 18, 2011 at 10:35 pm

        I’ve seen people suggest defense doesn’t really matter, and Martin is a zero with the bat. Both of which are falsehoods. Many Yankee fans still revert back to the logic that “Posada caught for us fine for years because of offense, so defense doesn’t matter”. SO they want to see Montero catch, because they think his offense will be so good it will outweigh it.

        Reply
        • Michael P. says:
          October 18, 2011 at 11:59 pm

          Just…not true. Defense is hugely important in every single aspect of the game. If people don’t think so they need only to look at the Rays. And 17 homers from the catchers position and plus defense on a one year deal is something people don’t agree with? Hell if anything they should be thinking extension with Martin. Most catchers aren’t ready to take over behind the dish, play good defense and more importantly handle a pitching staff for a while. Average age of when a catcher is called up is 25 I believe. Catcher isn’t a position you throw a kid into the fire, it is the general of the field.

          Reply
          • T.O. Chris says:
            October 19, 2011 at 12:18 am

            Hey I agree whole heartedly, I’ve made these same arguments before. The truth is though people can watch offense and understand it, they can calculate it with stats. This makes it easier to understand. Defense, especially for the catcher is still an enigma. People can’t put a value total on it completely, so they chose to downplay it’s importance.

            Reply
  6. Eric Schultz says:
    October 19, 2011 at 12:37 am

    Good chatter here folks. Sorry I didn’t get to it earlier, but Prof. Longnose’s question is a very interesting one about the difference in value between a good a bad defensive catcher.

    The pitch-framing study puts the difference between the best and worst catcher at about 2 wins (20 runs). The blocking study puts the difference between the best and worst catcher at about 1.3 wins. The stats on throwing runners out puts the difference between the best and the worst catcher at 1 win.

    This suggests that if the best defensive catcher in the league were #1 in each category and the worst defensive catcher were the worst in each category, the difference in value would be about 4.3 wins, a huge discrepancy that offense will almost certainly not make up.

    While Posada and Martin aren’t quite that far apart, Posada consistently is near the bottom in most measures of defense, while Martin was 16.6 runs above replacement defensively this year (1.7 wins).

    Assuming Posada’s subpar defense would be at least 1-2 wins below replacement level (Carlos Santana was -1.8 WAR defensively), we are looking at a gap of somewhere between 3-4 WAR between Martin and Posada just looking at defense. If Montero is in fact as bad defensively as the reports say, and he won’t be much (if at all) better than Posada defensively, then he would have to be 3-4 WAR better offensively than Martin just to have equivalent value.

    Reply

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