Don’t Believe What You Read On Darvish

By On October 17, 2011 · 17 Comments · In Hot Stove

In a very interesting column on the Yankees’ offseason plans, Joel Sherman shared the following nugget about how the organization views Japanese pitching sensation Yu Darvish:

“For those on the bandwagon, I heard the Giants have made it so clear they are not trading him that the Yankees have not asked about the righty in “’years.’ The A’s want a No. 1 starter return for , and the Yankees don’t view him as an ace. took a step back this past year. Many key Yankee voices like Yu Darvish, but the internal sense is Steinbrenner and general manager Brian Cashman are not going to authorize a big outlay after the Kei Igawa disaster and ’s plummet for Boston.”

Sherman is an excellent reporter, and if he is reporting that the organization has a low level of interest in Darvish, that is likely what people in the Yankee hierarchy are saying at this point. That said, considering the circumstances of the Darvish situation, it would behoove fans to take everything they hear about a team’s interest in Darvish with an enormous grain of salt.

The process of acquiring players from Japanese baseball includes a blind posting system. Interested teams get to make a single bid for the exclusive rights to negotiate with the player, without knowledge of the bids being made by other clubs. Essentially, clubs need to guess at the market and then make their bid accordingly. This can prove to be extremely difficult, as evidenced by the Red Sox’s $51 million bid for Daisuke Matsuzaka, which reportedly exceeded the next highest bid by at least $15 million.

The guesswork nature of this process lends itself towards misinformation. Teams that are interested in Darvish have an incentive to downplay their level of involvement, which could help suppress the market and lower the range of bids. Conversely, teams that have little interest might feign heavy internal consideration of a large bid, so as to drive up the price for rivals and generally push the market upwards. Taken together, this means that almost all of the information you might hear on Darvish, regarding any team, is likely to be filtered through the lens of self-interest and may be being released to influence the bidding environment. As we saw with the Daisuke  situation, until the Nippon Ham Fighters announce the winner, everyone will be in the dark on the posting process.

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17 Responses to Don’t Believe What You Read On Darvish

  1. Steve S. says:
    October 17, 2011 at 5:10 pm

    We had the same take on the same column. Positioning themselves for the offseason.

    Reply
  2. Alvin B says:
    October 17, 2011 at 5:18 pm

    Mlb scouts have been scouting this kid since high school. If yanks are high on him, they should go after him. I dont mind posting fee of 50mil cause yanks will profit more with the japanese market. Especially if he becomes a star in us. Does any1 know how much yanks profit with matsui playing for the yanks? That might factor in how they post

    Reply
    • T.O. Chris says:
      October 17, 2011 at 5:25 pm

      Does anyone expect the posting fee to become 50 million? The Red Sox went that high trying to outbid the Yankees, and wound up outbidding themselves. I don’t see the Red Sox being major players in this one, though I could be 100% wrong. However I personally would be a little shocked if the winning bidder was 50+ million.

      Reply
    • Steve S. says:
      October 17, 2011 at 7:01 pm

      We have to take the word of talent evaluators, but they’ll be the first to tell you its an inexact science. If he gets spooked by some of these huge guys who flip their wrists and turn a fastball around that he’s been blowing guys away with in Japan, next thing you know he starts nibbling and the next thing you know he’s not the same pitcher.

      There’s that adjustment, plus the whole cultural adjustment, plus asking a guy to pitch every 5 days instead of 7. Its a lot to ask of someone.

      I’d be much more comfortable treating these high ticket Japanese pitchers like all of the Cuban, Mexican, Korean and Venezuelan players. Let them spend a year in a low-stress environment in AAA getting their feet wet before bringing them up. If it was good enough for El Duque, king Felix and Strasburg, then its good enough for Darvish.

      Reply
      • T.O. Chris says:
        October 17, 2011 at 7:06 pm

        The change from every 5 days from every 7 days is the biggest thing for me. I think this was the biggest adjustment for Dice-K, and I think it is probably one of the biggest reason his velocity was never really consistent.

        That would be ideal, but with the money they pay players coming over from Japan it’s not likely an option the FO will consider.

        Reply
  3. T.O. Chris says:
    October 17, 2011 at 5:22 pm

    Very well said. It really makes no sense to say “well Igawa failed, and Dice-K trailed off so we have no interest in Darvish”, so I didn’t much believe that when I read it at all. Igawa is a non-factor, he was a reactionary move to the Red Sox “new toy” and an important lesson to the FO of what not to do. He is in no way close to the prospect Darvish is. I can see being worried about Yu’s longterm success after Dice-K seem to run down after his firs two years, and seemingly blaming American baseball culture for it. Though by all reports, and all the numbers available, Yu is far greater in Japan than Dice-K ever was, and he’s coming over at a younger age.

    At the end of the day I don’t think any of us fans can say one way or another what the right decision is on Darvish. It’s a complete scouting issue, and if the Yankees think he will translate (and aren’t scared of the innings/pitches on his arm) then I’m inclined to go with their opinion on the subject. I would be excited if we land him, but I won’t be upset if we don’t.

    Reply
  4. says:
    October 17, 2011 at 5:32 pm

    I’d rather take a chance on CJ Wilson than give big bucks to Darvish. Too much uncertainty with Japanese pitchers, clearly.

    Reply
    • T.O. Chris says:
      October 17, 2011 at 5:42 pm

      What do you consider big bucks? The posting fee isn’t part of the contract, and doesn’t count towards the luxury tax. Dice-K’s actual contract was 6 years and 51 million, that is considerably less than Wilson will get. In fact it’s half of what Wilson is reportedly seeking. I also am not so sure Darvish will even get that, and I see no way he gets more than 6 years 51 million. So when it comes down to “big bucks”, CJ is the one who would be making that. Not to mention CJ is going to be 31 and Darvish 25 or 26. Though as I have pointed out in other talks about Darvish the baseball age isn’t as cut an dry as that. Since Darvish has way more innings/pitches on an arm that age than you would expect, and Wilson doesn’t have the wear and tear you would expect on a 31 year old.

      Just to be clear I wouldn’t mind either one being a Yankee, and if we can get CJ on a 5 year 85 million or so contract I’m all for it.

      Reply
      • Alvin B says:
        October 17, 2011 at 6:04 pm

        I value cj as 10M/yr pitcher. Im not high on him. 31 is still 31.

        Reply
        • T.O. Chris says:
          October 17, 2011 at 7:09 pm

          Well according to Fangraphs he was valued at 18.5 million dollars in 2010, and 26.5 million this season. 10 million per year is an undervalue. He’ll easily get 14-17 mllion per year, and I can see him being worth it for 4-5 years.

          Reply
    • Steve S. says:
      October 17, 2011 at 6:54 pm

      I wouldn’t dismiss all of them automatically, I just think the numbers at this price level don’t make sense. Assuming a minimum 30-40 mil posting fee PLUS a contract of at least as much if not more, that’s a huge outlay for someone who’s never pitched an inning of MLB baseball. Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon combined received 2% of that outlay, and I think we’d all be thrilled if he pitched like either one of them. Of course, there are other factors from a business standpoint, but its my understanding that the additional income is overrated. I’ve seen estimates of 1-2 mil per year, and they were admittedly generous.

      Put another way, would anyone think it makes sense to give a 24 year old college kid with a slight build 60-80 mil if he put up these numbers in AA or an independent league? Of course not. With the annual defections from Japan, I’m not even sure we can say its equivalent to AAA anymore. So why not spend that money on someone proven? Or 10 guys that are proven? Not as sexy, but I think its smarter and will win you more games.

      Just too rich for my blood.

      Reply
      • Professor Longnose says:
        October 18, 2011 at 8:11 am

        If you could get some of these Japanese kids when they were 18, 19, 20 and get them into American minor leagues, you’d develop better pitchers. Letting a guy pitch 5 formative years in an environment that doesn’t force him to be his best is going to turn a lot of great raw talent into pitchers who can’t handle MLB. I understand that’s not likely for economic reasons, but it’s too bad. If there were more back and forth with Japan it would be better for everyone. It might mean rethinking the whole relationship between Japanese and American baseball, but it might some day happen.

        Reply
  5. Daler says:
    October 17, 2011 at 8:02 pm

    Also keep in mind the posting fee doesn’t DIY r toward the luxury tax.

    I think they’ll trade for a SP n play heavy in FA class next year.

    Reply
    • T.O. Chris says:
      October 17, 2011 at 8:50 pm

      Do you have anyone in mind for a trade? I know it’s hard to speculate from the outside, and unseen players become available (like Granderson). But I just don’t see who we matchup with, that also has a starter of the caliber we want.

      I know I’ve said it before, but I feel I have to say it again. We (and the FO especially) need to be careful from putting too many eggs in the “next year FA class basket”. That well of pitching is going to dry up fast IMO, and I don’t think many, if any of the top names will actually make it to free agency. You may end up with guys like Marcum and Jonathan Sanchez being the cream of the crop. Those starters are good, but not something to hang your hat on.

      Reply
  6. Steve S. says:
    October 17, 2011 at 8:53 pm

    Just read Sherman’s column, apparently the Yanks think more highly of Darvish than they do Wilson. Though that’s not saying much, one Yankee source described CJ as “a #4 on a championship caliber club” so the bar isn’t set all that high.

    Reply
    • T.O. Chris says:
      October 17, 2011 at 9:02 pm

      As I said above that is total and utter rubbish. He may very well be the game 1 starter of a WS winning team this year, I don’t think that is any more than posturing. Wilson apparently wants 100 million in the offseason, I’m sure the Yankees are looking for a deal much closer to AJ’s contract. If the “source” truly thinks that, he’s an idiot and should be fired.

      Reply
  7. Michael P. says:
    October 17, 2011 at 10:13 pm

    Still hoping we sign the kid. Either him or a EJax signing as he is only a type B FA and his numbers have been getting better steadily for the last 3 years. He has a slight build because he is very tall. The more I think about it the more I think the Yankees really do need to acquire 1 more pitcher in addition to retaining CC. I think the market for CJ is going to actually be bigger than CC because some teams won’t even bother offering CC as serious contract. For instance the Blue Jays didn’t go after Lee because they didn’t feel they were serious suitors for him. I don’t think teams feel the same about Wilson thus driving his price up.

    Reply

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